Florida’s rough signing day and Billy Napier’s broken promises

With a purple Willis High School banner behind him and a collection of hats placed in front of him, five-star quarterback D.J. Lagway, like so many other prospects in his position, enjoyed his ESPN moment.

Lagway, one of the best players in the 2024 class, reached forward for the blue Florida hat and placed it on his head. He unzipped his fleece to reveal a white Gators T-shirt. Then he did the “Gator Chomp” arm motion, giving Florida fans a little taste of what his potential could mean for their beloved program’s future.

Five-star quarterbacks and big-time recruiting wins. This is what the Billy Napier era was supposed to look like.

But even all of the excitement from locking in an ultra-talented quarterback like Lagway couldn’t outweigh the harsh reality that the Gators, two years into the Napier era, had a disastrous first day of the early signing period. Lagway was a bright spot, sure, but his commitment doesn’t tell the story of the day.

From the beginning of his Florida tenure, Napier knew the situation he was taking over. His job was to be the anti-Dan Mullen, to be the coach of a proud football program that was going to be obsessed with recruiting and talent accumulation. And Napier and his staff weren’t just going to be in big-time recruitments, they also were going to win them.

Mullen had a bizarre aversion to fully embracing the fact this sport is about signing teenagers like Lagway and winning big because of it. It was like he never truly grasped the importance of going all in on recruiting. He certainly didn’t like talking about it.

So when Napier took the job on Dec. 5, 2021, he dove headfirst into the notion that Florida was going to win big only if it signed elite players.

Napier played the notes that became music to everyone’s ears. He spoke about creating an infrastructure with a personnel department that branched into on-campus recruiting, creative media and, of course, name, image and likeness. He discussed the administration’s eagerness to financially invest in the program, Florida’s new facility, its proximity to elite players, all of it.

Napier hired an army to make those promises a reality.

Which is what makes Wednesday so confusing. Florida’s failure isn’t the result of a coach who doesn’t get it or one who didn’t attempt to follow through on his words. Something just isn’t working.

Since Monday, Florida lost five-star safety Xavier Filsaime (Texas) as well as four-star defensive linemen Amaris Williams (Auburn) and Adarius Hayes (Miami).

In total, Florida lost six players who rank in the top 150 nationally since Nov. 11. Three other four-star prospects flipped out of Florida’s class before this week — edge rusher Jamonta Walker (Auburn) on Nov. 11, safety Wardell Mack (Texas) on Nov. 12 and defensive lineman Nasir Johnson (Georgia) on Nov. 15.

Florida was ultimately able to hold on to Lagway, which was of utmost importance for Napier given the quarterback is always the face of a recruiting class. But even that didn’t come without a small scare when teams like USC made a late push Wednesday. And shortly after Lagway signed, Florida lost yet another recruit when four-star receiver Izaiah Williams flipped to Texas A&M.

Now Florida’s 2024 class — which once seemed a surefire lock to finish with a top-five ranking — is outside of the top 15.

This, all of a sudden, has turned into a Dan Mullen class.

Mullen’s last full class at Florida, which came in the 2021 recruiting cycle, ranked No. 12 overall and included only three top-100 players. Napier’s class ranks No. 16 nationally and includes five top-100 players. Yes, the Gators signed a five-star quarterback, and the average player rating is a smidge higher, but this isn’t the night-and-day improvement you would have expected.

Let’s not shy away from the elephant in the room. Recruiting has evolved tremendously since Mullen was the coach, specifically because NIL plays a big role now. In this new era of college football, it’s really hard to assign complete blame to the coach if his team is simply getting outbid. It’s chaos in the shadows.

You might also be quick to point out that recruiting rankings aren’t worth as much as they were even five years ago with the rampant use of the transfer portal. Five-stars today can/will be on other rosters in 12 months. That’s the game now.

But Florida lost 17 players to the portal after its 5-7 season, including star running back Trevor Etienne, and one of its best edge rushers, Princely Umanmielen. Only two of the Gators’ four incoming transfers (to date) have come from Power 5 schools.

Napier’s goal as Florida’s coach was to assemble a roster that stacks up with SEC powers Alabama and Georgia. The Gators, though, are starting to resemble what Auburn looked like under Bryan Harsin. It’s harsh but true.

After Florida’s 5-7 season, which ended with five straight losses, there has been a lot of chatter about firing Napier. As we look right now, that feels like an inevitability. Timing is the only issue.

But that feels wrong. People as smart as Napier who understand the way this sport works are invaluable. And when someone like Napier is paired with a program with the history, geography, money and fan support that Florida has, it rarely turns out like this. This, however, cannot continue.

You have to give fans something to grab on to during the build of a program. If you are losing more games than you are winning, you have to be recruiting well. If you’re recruiting poorly, you have to have more success on the field than expected. For a while, Napier bought some time by selling the notion things would change when his recruits joined the program. Lagway and the rest of this class would come in and save the day.

Now it’s just Lagway and five-star defensive lineman LJ McCray. No question landing two five-star prospects is impactful, but both could bolt quickly if they don’t like how things are shaping up in Gainesville.

There’s no energy. No juice. No rational escape from this.

What’s going on? Is it NIL? There’s probably something to that — the Jaden Rashada debacle was only a year ago. But there has to be more. It’s not like Florida isn’t engaging in that realm at all. We have to assume Lagway isn’t going to Gainesville for free.

It’s bizarre.

This isn’t a fire Napier column. In a sport in which so many coaches who don’t grasp the importance of talent accumulation are hired, it seems irrational to toss someone aside who can acknowledge the importance of chasing, and ultimately, signing five-star prospects.

And it wasn’t too long ago that Florida State coach Mike Norvell had egg on his face when No. 1 recruit Travis Hunter flipped from the Seminoles to Jackson State. Florida State is in a much better place now.

So what needs to be done at Florida? Nobody seems to know the answer.

It’s just becoming increasingly obvious that a solution needs to be found. And soon. Napier, frankly, is failing in the one area in which he was supposed to thrive.

Without players, what does Florida have?

A useless army.

(Photo: Joe Robbins / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)