NFL Week 15 takeaways: Bucs or Saints in NFC South? Are Bills all the way back?

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Headed into Week 15 of the NFL season, just two teams (the Carolina Panthers and the New England Patriots) had been eliminated from playoff contention. Four more joined the list Sunday: the New York Jets, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders and Arizona Cardinals.

Tennessee had a 13-0 lead on the Houston Texans, who were down Offensive Rookie of the Year front-runner C.J. Stroud (concussion). But backup quarterback Case Keenum helped his team to a critical 19-16 overtime win that kept Houston in the thick of the AFC wild-card race and within striking distance of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South.

Meanwhile, the lowly Panthers dealt a significant blow to the Atlanta Falcons’ NFC South playoff hopes by pulling off a rain-soaked, 9-7 upset. That result plus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ win at the Green Bay Packers and the New Orleans Saints’ home victory over the New York Giants left Atlanta a game back in the division. The Buccaneers and Saints, who meet at Tampa Bay on Dec. 31, remained tied atop the division.

But the door is also wide open for the much-criticized NFC South to claim two playoff spots, in large part because every NFC North team but the Detroit Lions fell in Week 15. The Chicago Bears, coming off back-to-back wins over the Minnesota Vikings and Lions, let a 17-7 lead (and a last-second Hail Mary) slip away in a 20-17 loss. Instead, the hero of the day there was fill-in Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco, who overcame three interceptions to spark a late — and very important — comeback.

And while the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers took care of business during the late-afternoon window, the Buffalo Bills followed up a Week 14 road win against the Kansas City Chiefs with a statement performance against the Dallas Cowboys.

The Athletic NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on Sunday’s biggest developments.

Did Sunday’s 31-10 Buffalo romp tell us more about the Bills as a surging contender or the Cowboys (who clinched a playoff spot despite their loss) as a team that still has something to prove?

Jones: The Bills showed why people around the league have been saying nobody would want any part of Buffalo in the playoffs. This team is finally playing up to its potential and is already in playoff mode because it put itself in such a hole that there was no margin for error. The Cowboys weren’t clicking on all cylinders like we have seen, but Buffalo is hungry and can hit a gear few teams can.

What’s most impressive is the Bills routed the Cowboys on a day when Josh Allen completed just 7 of 15 passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. The Bills have struggled to run the ball this season, but they gashed Dallas for 266 rushing yards, with James Cook leading the way (179 yards and a TD on 25 carries). Meanwhile, the Bills defense held a previously hot Dak Prescott in check (21-of-34 for 134 yards and an interception) and denied the Cowboys on eight of 13 third-down attempts.

Nguyen: It tells us a lot about the Cowboys. I would have been impressed with the Bills in a win regardless, but the Cowboys got stomped, and this isn’t the first time they’ve been blown out on the road — they lost 42-10 to the 49ers in Week 5. The Bills have done a lot of work with their run game, but the Cowboys couldn’t even slow them down. Allen attempted only 15 passes and had 94 yards passing, and the Bills dominated.

The Bills defense was impressive. Few thought the Bills would have a shot at slowing down the Cowboys, in part because they’ve been terrible defending the middle of the field, which is where the Cowboys like to attack. But the Cowboys’ inability to run the ball efficiently hurt them.

Pompei: I’m going to chalk up the Cowboys’ performance to an off day. That was not the same team we saw dominate its last five games. There seems to be an inordinate amount of skepticism about the Cowboys, as if one loss is more defining than five convincing wins.

The Bills, on the other hand, have been inconsistent but have won two of three games, including victories against two of the better teams in the league. The defense has had some tough injuries, but it might be finding its groove at the right time of the season. The Bills are positioned well to make the playoffs and possibly pull off an upset or two in the postseason if they continue to do what they’re doing.

The Jets fell to 5-9 with a 30-0 blowout loss at the Miami Dolphins, and they have no shot at postseason play. Reports Sunday, though, noted that Aaron Rodgers might return for Week 16. Is there any reason he (or the team) should push for that comeback now?

Jones: It’s silly to risk rushing back onto the field in a lost season, but I do also understand Rodgers would want the last couple of weeks to knock off some rust and have something to build on for next season. And Robert Saleh and his assistants probably would love to have a couple of positive outings to point to when Jets brass reviews the season and weighs whether to make changes. But otherwise, the risks seem to outweigh the rewards.

Nguyen: The only reason to have Rodgers come back at this point is so Rodgers can show the world he’s achieved a medical miracle — but it’s also risky because the Jets might have the worst offensive line in the league. It would be disastrous if Rodgers suffered another injury that affected him into next season.

I can see it a bit from Rodgers’ perspective: He attacked rehab hard and wants a bit of a payoff. But from the franchise’s perspective, it’s an unnecessary risk.

Pompei: Rodgers would add to his legacy by becoming the player who came back from an Achilles tear faster than anyone ever. He also could give others confidence in their recoveries. And from the team perspective, one season bleeds into the next in the NFL — momentum built at the end of the 2023 season could change the way the Jets approach the offseason or even influence decisions on the front office and coaching staff.

It’s also possible that playing will help determine Rodgers’ future. Maybe it will convince him he has more to offer — or perhaps it will tell him it’s time to retire. This is certain: Rodgers’ return would make the Jets watchable, which they wouldn’t be otherwise.

Tampa Bay and New Orleans are in a two-team tie atop the NFC South. Who’s taking the division — and will that team be any sort of threat as a No. 4 seed?

Jones: I give Tampa Bay the edge. The Bucs have the momentum right now, having won three straight. Baker Mayfield appears as comfortable in the offense as he has been all year, and the defense is playing well enough to offer the support necessary to keep this thing rolling. They do have some tough games ahead (hosting Jacksonville next week, then New Orleans in the game that could wind up deciding the division). But New Orleans has to travel to L.A. to play the Rams before facing Tampa Bay and then closes out against Atlanta — which is more formidable (despite Sunday’s Panthers win) than Carolina, the Bucs’ final regular-season opponent.

So, for the moment, Tampa Bay looks like the narrow favorite. Now, can it be a threat in the playoffs? You never know, especially if the Bucs keep building on this momentum. But it’s still hard to envision them making much of a run.

Nguyen: The Bucs have an edge. Their offense is humming right now, and they look like they have the most difference-makers (Mike Evans, Vita Vea, Antoine Winfield Jr.) of the NFC South teams. They’ve also developed a run game, which has helped take pressure off of Mayfield. The Saints had a decisive win over the Giants, but I don’t trust them against a decent quarterback.

The Buccaneers could upset someone as a fourth seed, but it’ll depend on the matchup.

Pompei: The Bucs have the hot hand at the moment. Interestingly, they are 3-1 against division opponents, but we’re three games away from deciding the division, and it will come down to the last week. The Falcons aren’t out of it yet, but it’s starting to appear that the Bucs or Saints will win the division.

And those probably are the two best teams in the division. Neither might have enough gunpowder to make a real mark in the playoffs, however. If the representative from the NFC South advances to the championship round, the NFL will be stunned.

The Rams are 7-7 and still have guys like Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Aaron Donald. How much of a threat can this team be if it makes the playoffs?

Jones: I don’t see the Rams making much noise in the playoffs. They have some proven playmakers on offense and defense, but they also have a lot of young players still growing into roles. Just getting to the playoffs would be quite an accomplishment. Few people around the league gave Sean McVay’s squad much of a chance entering the season because of its abundant roster holes and deficiencies.

But give McVay and his staff a lot of credit for coaxing this team toward a competitive season.

Nguyen: Stafford is playing as well as any quarterback in the league, and the Rams have suddenly developed an effective run game. Their defense doesn’t have much talent outside of Donald, but it’s disciplined and plays hard. If that defense can be average (or even just a little below average), the Rams will be a tough out for anyone. With an explosive offense and Donald rushing the passer, this team can pull off an upset.

Pompei: The Rams are one of the dozen or so teams in “the clump.” The teams that comprise the clump are not elite, but they’re competitive and can beat an elite team when the stars align. They also can lose to sub-clump teams.

The Rams have yet to beat an elite team, however. All of their victories have been against other clump or sub-clump teams. There is a possibility of them beating another clump team in the playoffs. If/when they come up against an elite team, though, that might be another story.

Without Stroud, the Texans rallied for a last-second, overtime win in Tennessee. The Browns, meanwhile, overcame Flacco’s up-and-down day (and 2.5 Montez Sweat sacks) to hold off Chicago. Which win was more impressive?

Jones: That’s a tough call. Both wins had impressive elements, but the Texans hold the slight edge. DeMeco Ryans continues to impress as he gets this team to play hard and exceed expectations. The Titans aren’t the high-level squad they have been in years past, but this was still a tough challenge, especially without Stroud. Case Keenum was solid (229 yards, one TD, one INT), and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik was wise to lean heavily on Devin Singletary, who rushed for 121 yards. The entire squad delivered a determined performance as it rallied from a double-digit deficit to win.

As for the Browns, it wasn’t their best performance, but they got the plays when they needed them most. Flacco again showed why experience and depth are so important at the quarterback position. He wasn’t overwhelmed at any point, and he delivered in the clutch because he’s been in plenty of high-pressure situations.

Nguyen: I thought the Texans’ win was more impressive. Coming back from a double-digit lead with a backup quarterback on the road doesn’t happen often. After giving up 13 first-half points, the defense allowed just three more combined in the second half and overtime — Ryans and his staff have done an admirable job on that side of the ball. This win was the Texans’ eighth of the season and puts them squarely in the mix for the AFC South.

That’s not to take away anything from Flacco and the Browns, who also had to come back from a double-digit hole. I just thought there were more factors that the Texans had to overcome to get the “W” today.

Pompei: Both were impressive, but I’ll give it to the Browns because they beat a Bears team that had won three of four and is playing defense better than most teams in the league. The Browns also continued to win despite having as many significant injuries as any team. Flacco was off Sunday, and the Browns couldn’t get their running game going, but they made big plays at timely moments and tight end David Njoku continued his hot streak.

The Browns are limping to the finish line and might be limited in terms of postseason potential, but they are a resilient, gritty team that deserves a lot of credit.

(Photo of Baker Mayfield: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)

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