Biden explained, “Israel’s security can rest on the United States, but right now it has more than the United States. It has the European Union, it has Europe, it has most of the world supporting it.” However, Biden cautioned, “They’re starting to lose that support by the indiscriminate bombing that takes place.” Biden’s not-too-subtle shot across the bow makes clear that his ability to stave off Israel’s most vituperative critics has limits.
Spokesman John Kirby later clarified that Biden was “expressing concerns … about the civilian casualties that we’ve seen. And, again, it’s reflective of our constant efforts to urge the Israelis to be as precise and careful as possible.” He listed ways in which Israel responded to U.S. admonitions, including going into “the North in a much smaller force than they had said they were going to do or were planning to do; by publishing a map online so that people know where to go; by agreeing to additional, now daily, pauses in the fighting.” Kirby added, “That’s basically telegraphing your punches, and there’s very few modern militaries in the world that would do that. I don’t know that we would do that.”
Most important, Kirby acknowledged that the mass bombing seen in the north has been greatly reduced. “Airstrikes, for instance, have reduced since they’ve started to move in more towards the south,” he said. “They have relied less and less on airstrikes and more and more on ground troops, which allows you to be more precise.” Israel’s harshest critics have not noticed. They seem to falsely assume Biden can dictate policy to Israel — a reflection of how such critics do not recognize Israel’s right to pursue its self-interests, like any country.
The distinction between U.S. support for Israel’s survival and Biden’s differences with the Netanyahu government — over everything from governance of Gaza after the war to its attack on the judiciary to settler violence in the West Bank — often eludes Biden’s left-wing critics. However, Biden plainly has reiterated to the international community, his domestic audience and the Israeli public (which holds him in high regard) that his support for Israel is unbreakable but his tolerance for certain tactics and policies is running low.
Biden has been more vocal about the duration of the war and its objectives. The administration recently called on Israel to wrap up major ground operations in weeks, not months. In addition, Biden has begun to emphasize that “success” requires the return of all hostages, as contrasted with Netanyahu’s singular focus on annihilating every Hamas fighter. A strategy that writes off the hostages’ lives would be entirely unacceptable.
In support of the hostages, Biden has established an emotional bond with their families, who have a huge, cross-ideological base of support in Israel. Meeting with U.S. families for more than two hours showed not just his deep personal empathy but also his political commitment to the hostages’ return.
To that end, Biden has powerful Israeli allies. Former Israeli ambassador to the United States Michael Oren has echoed Biden’s warnings and proposed negotiating Hamas’s surrender (rather than military destruction) to secure the hostages’ return. Likewise, the Jerusalem Post reported on a proposal from a group of more than 500 former defense and intelligence officials: “Commanders for Israel’s Security (CIS) … proposed to the government war cabinet to offer Hamas’s leadership expulsion, along with Palestinian security prisoners, in exchange for a return of their Israeli hostages.” A similar deal worked in 1982. (Some former U.S. diplomats have made a similar argument.)
“The point of CIS making the recommendation to the war cabinet was to help resolve the contradictory goals of defeating Hamas along with rescuing the hostages,” the Jerusalem Post noted. “It has become clearer that a large number of the hostages will not survive absent some kind of deal, and the suggested deal would still broadly fulfill Israel’s pre-war goals of dismantling Hamas in Gaza, though the organization would continue to exist in exile.”
The administration can more overtly indicate that the United States would support ridding Gaza of Hamas leadership and securing the return of the hostages without annihilating every Hamas fighter. Biden could reach out to CIS leaders and Israeli hostage families, perhaps appearing via video at one of the latter’s mass demonstrations. With additional Israel aid in the balance, Biden could underscore waning Democratic support absent evidence that the war is wrapping up and that civilian lives will be better protected.
In another departure from Netanyahu, the Biden team consistently has ruled out Israel’s permanent reoccupation of Gaza. It forcefully supports a Marshall Plan-type reconstruction effort in Gaza, the need to reform the Palestinian Authority and Palestinian self-determination (which must end in two states for two peoples). These are not Netanyahu’s aims, but he is unlikely to survive postwar scrutiny.
To pursue U.S. objectives, the Biden administration should intensify outreach to Israel’s opposition leaders, representatives of the mass democratic movement and regional powers, especially Saudi Arabia, whose recognition Israel craves. Biden can candidly acknowledge: Israel’s long-term security depends on ending the Netanyahu-Smotrich-Gvir approach, which brought Israel to the brink of ruin.
Put simply, Biden seems to recognize he must differentiate between rock-solid support for Israel and his limited, transactional relationship with its failed prime minister. No easy task, but Biden’s no ordinary U.S. president in Israelis’ eyes. Now is the time to use his political and moral capital.
