Ukraine War Maps Show Impact of Victory for Russia

A victory for Russia would have catastrophic consequences for Ukraine as well as for the U.S. and NATO, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

In its most recent update on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Washington-based think tank warned the U.S. against halting military and economic support to Kyiv, an issue that has become a symbol of the division within Congress.

In early December, Republicans blocked a $111 billion emergency spending bill which included funds supporting Ukraine’s war efforts, for a total of $50 billion. The GOP had demanded strict border restrictions in return for their backing of the bill.

As the U.S.’s continuous support for Kyiv remains in limbo, concerns have grown in the West over Kyiv’s capacity to continue fighting against the Russian invasion without replenishing its war chest after the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the support of Ukraine’s European allies is also faltering. On Friday, Hungary’s president Viktor Orban blocked $55 billion in EU aid to Ukraine at a crunch summit in Brussels.

The ISW said that “a Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit.”

The think tank published a series of maps showing how Europe would look if Russia wins its war in Ukraine. In the one where Russia achieves a full victory in Ukraine, Russian units appear at the border with Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Slovakia and Romania.

The map assumes that the Russians would move to the NATO borders the two armies the Kremlin newly created for the current war, according to the ISW, “one of which is already designated to be stationed in Crimea, and two others that were deployed on the eastern borders of Ukraine and Belarus and whose stationing at those locations would lose its strategic purpose following a full Russian victory in Ukraine.”

The Russians “could well bring considerably more combat power toward the NATO frontiers than is discussed below and depicted on this map following a victory over Ukraine without any strategic cost if they were willing to pay the financial price,” the ISW wrote.

Another map showing the potential Russian air defense dispositions if Moscow wins the war in Ukraine shows a scenario where Russian air defenses reach as far as Hungary and the Scandinavian countries.

Crucially, the ISW wrote that NATO “would be unable to defend against such an attack with the forces currently in Europe.” This would force the heavy intervention of the U.S., which would have to commit large numbers of American soldiers and a big portion of its fleet.

“The cost of these defensive measures would be astronomical and would likely be accompanied by a period of very high risk when US forces were not adequately prepared or postured to handle either Russia or China, let alone both together,” the ISW wrote.

A Ukrainian victory, which would include the reestablishment of control over Crimea, on the other hand, would be important for the U.S. and NATO as well as for Kyiv. If Kyiv were to regain its 1991 borders, according to the ISW, this would “dramatically” alleviate pressure on the Atlantic alliance.

Meanwhile, the current situation in Ukraine shows that Kyiv’s troops have managed to keep the Russians away from the eastern borders of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

Newsweek contacted the defense ministries of Ukraine and Russia for comment by email on Friday.