This wasn’t supposed to happen.
The New York Knicks were supposed to win 38 games. That’s what the all-knowing predictors in Las Vegas said. They were supposed to finish ninth in the Eastern Conference. Optimists had them seventh. Homers had them sixth.
Somehow, even the homers were too down on this team.
The Knicks clinched a playoff spot Sunday night with a win over the Washington Wizards. At least for this spring, say goodbye to Play-In Tournament stresses. They are nearly guaranteed to finish fifth in the East, which will mean participating in one of the NBA’s more anticipated first-round series: Knicks versus Cleveland Cavaliers; top-level defense versus top-of-the-line offense; Donovan Mitchell versus the team for which he never played.
Even if the Knicks were to make it into the postseason, they weren’t supposed to headline a premier series. Yet, here they are, defying the odds with every victory.
The win over the Wizards was their 46th of the season, eight above their Vegas over/under. Only four other teams have blown away their win predictions by as much as New York has: the Sacramento Kings, Utah Jazz, Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers. Only one of those four, Sacramento, is above 10th place in its conference.
This season is the sweet spot for fans. It’s the one before the burden of expectations. The Knicks are winning with young players. Julius Randle might as well be a grandpa. When he’s healthy, at 28, he’s the oldest guy in the team’s rotation. And he’s locked up for another three seasons after this one.
They’re winning with youth. The most important players are under team control for the long term. The group is ahead of schedule — even by its measures.
The Knicks had sound logic when they chose not to trade for Mitchell last summer. Not only would the package have been massive, leaving the roster somewhat empty in the present, but also it would’ve depleted New York of its long-term assets.
The plan was to trade for the first star and still have enough left over to deal for a second. But the way negotiations for Mitchell went down poked holes in the Knicks’ blueprint. If acquiring the player who had never even made All-NBA would have left the cupboard too bare, then the next player who was as good as or better than Mitchell would’ve cost as much or more, leaving the Knicks in the same situation.
But life changes fast in the NBA.
Last summer, when most predictors had them below .500, the Knicks seemed two stars away from making noise. That’s no longer the case.
They’re 46-33. Since Dec. 4, the day head coach Tom Thibodeau shrunk the rotation to nine players, they are 36-20.
Since Josh Hart joined the team, they are 16-6. They’re second in the NBA in both points per possession and point differential per possession over this 22-game stretch.
Randle has bounced back from a disappointing season in the bounciest of ways. There’s a good chance he makes All-NBA for the second time in three years. Immanuel Quickley has made the leap. Mitchell Robinson is a better defender and offensive rebounder than ever. In Year 2, Quentin Grimes is already a dependable starter. Isaiah Hartenstein is one of the league’s best backup centers. Hart fit immediately.
And then there’s Jalen Brunson, the No. 1 reason the Knicks won’t have to think the same way the next time a star becomes available.
Randle is done for at least the rest of the regular season because of a sprained ankle. In his first game out, a match last week against the Cavaliers, Brunson dropped a career-high 48 points in a surprising victory.
It argues for best win of the season. Then again, this is the ninth or 10th time New York has had its best win of the season.
Maybe it was the other win over the Cavs. Or that other win over the Cavs. They’ve beaten Cleveland three of four times now. Or maybe it was the double-overtime win in Boston. Or the boring single-overtime win in Boston. Or either of the wins over Denver. Or that crazy Miami game in February. Or that crazier Miami game in March, the one when Randle drained a step-back for the win.
There’s a constant across most of those victories: When the Knicks need it, someone usually steps up. They don’t have a household name, but they’re capable of getting a star-like performance on any given night. In the double-OT Boston game, it was from Quickley. In the one in Miami, it was Randle. Often, it’s Brunson. He’s their crunchtime engine, their organizer — and he’s become their foundation too.
It turns out, the Knicks already had their first star in the door. They’re one star away.
They still need one more win or one Brooklyn Nets loss to wrap up fifth place. Either way, this team is playing with house money — revving above the Play-In Tournament to a seed no one anticipated with a group of young players who are ahead of schedule, an All-NBA talent few people believed would return and a star point guard who was supposedly overpaid only nine months ago.
Back in the day, the Knicks would sacrifice long-term health with the hopes of winning in the present. Often, neither part of the plan worked. This season has proven the opposite.
No top-eight team in either conference has the surplus of first-round picks they do. The Knicks have prioritized their future but also are winning today. And they’re doing it more than any outsider could have forecast.
(Photo of Jalen Brunson: Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)
