BIDEN: DON’T LET ‘GAMESMANSHIP GET IN THE WAY’: With backing for Ukraine’s war effort slipping and its counteroffensive making meager progress, President Joe Biden is hoping to rally support with a “major speech” in the coming days laying out why backing Ukraine “as long as it takes” is “critically important” for the United States and its allies.
“I’m going to make the argument that it’s overwhelmingly in the interests of the United States of America that Ukraine succeed,” Biden said yesterday at the White House. “I think that it’s clear to the vast majority of the foreign policy community, in both Left and Right, that this has been a valuable exercise for the United States of America to increase the support we have around the world.”
With the White House’s request for an additional $24 billion in economic and military assistance for Ukraine stalled by the ouster of House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and the resulting disarray in the House as Republicans scramble to replace him, Biden cryptically suggested he may have a short-term workaround.
“We can support Ukraine in the next tranche that we need, and there is another means by which we may be able to find funding for that, but I’m not going to get into that now,” Biden said. “The majority of the American people still support Ukraine, and the majority of the members of the Congress, both Democrat and Republican, support it. So I don’t think we should let gamesmanship get in the way of blocking it.”
SENATE APPROPRIATORS VOW BIPARTISAN UKRAINE AID DESPITE HOUSE UNCERTAINTY
PUBLIC OPINION SLIPPING: The planned speech comes as Biden has faced criticism from Republicans for failing to spell out the ultimate objective of the limitless aid to Ukraine and as the American public is beginning to question how long U.S. tax dollars should continue to flow to Kyiv.
A survey just released by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs taken early last month found that, while a majority of Americans continue to support U.S. assistance to Ukraine, the size of that majority has narrowed.
“Six in ten continue to support providing economic aid and sending additional arms and military supplies to the Ukrainian government, down slightly from a year ago,” the survey found. “A slim majority also say the $43 billion in military aid already sent to Ukraine has been worth the cost. While many Republicans believe that the United States should urge Kyiv to negotiate with Russia to end the war, half of them still support continuing US financial and military assistance.”
“The data show that flagging desire to support Ukraine could be influenced by several factors, including decreased interest in news about the war; a reduced sense of threat from Russia, a desire for Europeans to take a larger role, a decline in the popularity of Ukrainian president Zelenskyy, and a growing sense that Ukraine has not been able to gain advantage in the conflict,” the Chicago Council on Global Affairs said.
‘WE’RE LIKE THE BIG JENGA BLOCK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE TOWER’: With the mood in Europe beginning to turn away from Ukraine, the Biden administration is increasingly concerned about the message any wavering in support sends to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I think things look a lot better if you’re Vladimir Putin sitting in Moscow. I mean, he sees a U.S. government that’s dysfunctional right now that can’t provide the aid that Ukraine needs,” former Defense Secretary Mark Esper said on CNN. “You have a pro-Russian government in Serbia amassing forces on the Kosovo border where the NATO troops are. You have a grain dispute between Poland and Ukraine. It just seems like the West is fracturing.”
“If U.S. aid to Ukraine falls, we’re like the big Jenga block at the bottom of the tower. You pull that out, and a lot of other Western aid risks being lost as well,” Esper said.
In a separate interview on CNN, former Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the opposition to further support for Ukraine by some Republicans in Congress is a gift to Putin.
“He sees the debate in this country. And he saw what has happened with regards to the funding that was removed from the continuing resolution. He’s aware of all of it,” Panetta said. “And he’s going to try to do everything he can to try to influence those particularly on the Republican side to not support aid to Ukraine. That’s his goal.”
Panetta said Putin will no doubt be attempting to interfere in the next U.S. election as he did in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022. “He will try to do everything in his power to try to elect someone who would be supportive of him and supportive of Russia. That would undermine our national security standing in the world.”
KEVIN MCCARTHY SPEAKER FIASCO BRINGS ‘AID AND COMFORT’ TO AMERICA’S FOES
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden receives a 12 p.m. briefing on Ukraine at the White House from members of his national security team, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his new Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is in Granada, Spain, for a meeting of the European Political Community forum, where he is hoping to reassure some 50 European leaders that Ukraine is on a path to victory.
“Our joint goal is to ensure the security and stability of our common European home,” Zelensky posted on X. “We will pay special attention to the Black Sea region as well as our joint efforts to strengthen global food security and freedom of navigation.”
“Ukraine’s key priority, particularly as winter approaches, is to strengthen air defense,” he said. “We have already laid the groundwork for new agreements with partners and look forward to their approval and implementation.”
UKRAINE ‘STARTING TO LIBERATE CRIMEA’ AS BLACK SEA SUCCESSES OFFSET SLOW PROGRESS ON LAND
SEIZED IRANIAN AMMO SENT TO UKRAINE: The U.S. Central Command announced yesterday that more than a million 7.62 mm small arms ammunition rounds seized by the U.S. Navy in December have been delivered to Ukraine.
“The government obtained ownership of these munitions on July 20, 2023, through the Department of Justice’s civil forfeiture claims against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,” CENTCOM said in a press release. “The munitions were being transferred from the IRGC to the Houthis in Yemen in violation of the United Nations Security Council Resolution 2216.”
US TRANSFERS SEIZED IRANIAN WEAPONS TO UKRAINE
AN ‘ACUTE AND IMMEDIATE NEED’: Facing an onslaught of illegal immigration across the Texas border, it turns out the Biden administration needs to build more border wall after all.
In a posting on the U.S. Federal Register, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced he was waiving 26 federal laws in South Texas to allow border wall construction along a portion of the Texas border experiencing “high illegal entry.”
“There is presently an acute and immediate need to construct physical barriers and roads in the vicinity of the border of the United States in order to prevent unlawful entries into the United States,” the statement said, citing the need for “expeditious construction of barriers and roads in the vicinity of the international land border in Starr County, Texas.”
“The United States Border Patrol’s Rio Grande Valley Sector is an area of high illegal entry,” Mayorkas said. “As of early August 2023, Border Patrol had encountered over 245,000 such entrants attempting to enter the United States between ports of entry in the Rio Grande Valley Sector in Fiscal Year 2023.”
During the Trump administration, about 450 miles of barriers were built along the southwest border between 2017 and January 2021, according to the Associated Press.
MAYORKAS IN MEXICO TO BOOST ‘COOPERATION’ DURING HISTORIC IMMIGRATION SURGE
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: US transfers seized Iranian weapons to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Senate appropriators vow bipartisan Ukraine aid despite House uncertainty
Washington Examiner: Ukraine ‘starting to liberate Crimea’ as Black Sea successes offset slow progress on land
Washington Examiner: Kevin McCarthy speaker fiasco brings ‘aid and comfort’ to America’s foes
Washington Examiner: Increased military presence in Middle East deterring Iranian maritime aggression
Washington Examiner: War with Iran would be ‘catastrophic’ for US long-term competition with China, Air Force lieutenant general says
Washington Examiner: US has its ‘boot on the neck’ of ISIS, but concerns it could grow in Afghanistan remain
Washington Examiner: Mayorkas in Mexico to boost ‘cooperation’ during historic immigration surge
Washington Examiner: Taiwan strikes balance between seeking weapons and supporting Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Does Taiwan even care if it continues to exist?
Washington Post: Most favor military aid to Ukraine, but partisan split grows, poll fi
Bloomberg: Army Ready to Deliver Long-Range Missiles for Ukraine Once Biden Approves
Bloomberg: US Artillery Shell Surge During Ukraine War Hinges on Army Bets
Washington Post: Pakistan abruptly turns against Afghan refugees, calls for deportations
Reuters: U.S. Budget Fight Could Create Opening For China In The Pacific
BBC: How China Is Fighting In The Grey Zone Against Taiwan
Military.com: Marines Begin Training In The Philippines As South China Sea Tensions Seethe
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Task Force 99 Exploring ‘One-Way Kinetic Attack’ Drones, AFCENT Boss Says
Air Force Times: Wittman Lukewarm on Air Force Plan to ‘Quickstart’ Programs
CQ Roll Call: Congress Made $80 Billion-Plus In Changes To Defense Budget
Inside Defense: Senators Introduce Bill for ‘Governing Council’ to Oversee DOD AI Priorities
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Lockheed Boss: F-35 Tech Refresh-3 Coming in Mid-2024, Will Be ‘Worth The Wait’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Space Force Awards Contract to SpaceX for Starshield, Its New Satellite Network
Defense News: Space Force Hunts for Mature Technology in ‘Hyperspace Challenge’ Program
Space News: US Space Force Awards Booz Allen $630 Million Contract for Satellite Systems Support
DefenseScoop: Air Force to Activate Two Electronic Warfare Assessment Squadrons This Month
Breaking Defense: ‘It’s Going to Be Huge’: Cyber Command Gains New Authorities to Hire & Buy
Military.com: Service Academies Honor Law Allowing Cadets to Have Kids Even as Pentagon Policy Lags
Stars and Stripes: Marine Corps Explores Uniform Options To Offset Camouflage Supply Shortages
Calendar
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 5
9 a.m. — Hudson Institute discussion: “Japanese Security in an Uncertain Indo-Pacific,” with Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara; and Kenneth Weinstein, Hudson Japan chair
9:30 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies annual “China’s Power: Up for Debate 2023,” with Ely Ratner, assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific security affairs; Michael Beckley, director of the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Asia Program; Dan Blumenthal, American Enterprise Institute senior fellow; Fiona Cunningham, assistant professor at the University of Pennsylvania; Lonnie Henley, FPRI senior fellow; Phillip Saunders, director of the National Defense University’s Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs; Rick Waters, managing director of the Eurasia Group’s China practice; Arne Westad, professor at Yale University’s School of Global Affairs; Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s Nuclear Policy Program; and Bonny Lin, director of the CSIS China Power Project
9:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “China and Russia’s Role in North Korea’s Human Rights Abuses,” with Sue Mi Terry, Macro Advisory Partners senior adviser; Katrin Fraser Katz, CSIS nonresident adjunct fellow; Victor Cha, CSIS Korea chairman; and Mark Lippert, CSIS nonresident senior adviser
5 p.m. 1521 16th St. NW — The Institute of World Politics book discussion: Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, with author Janusz Bugajski, senior fellow, Jamestown Foundation
MONDAY | OCTOBER 9
8 a.m. 801 Mount Vernon Place NW — Association of the U.S. Army three-day Annual Meeting and Exposition, with the theme “Be All You Can Be.” Speakers include: Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; Gen. Randy George, Army vice chief of staff and current Army chief of staff nominee; and Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael Weimer
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 11
4 p.m. — Hudson Institute “Presidential Speech Series,” with Gov. Doug Burgum (R-ND), presidential candidate, delivering an address on foreign policy
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 12
7 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO defense ministers meet for two days at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. The meeting will be chaired by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Association of the U.S. Army and Center for Strategic and International Studies “Strategic Landpower Dialogue,” with Gen. Charles Flynn, commanding general of U.S. Army Pacific
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“If U.S. aid to Ukraine falls, we’re like the big Jenga block at the bottom of the tower. You pull that out and a lot of other Western aid risks being lost as well.”
Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, on CNN, Wednesday.
