Observations from first 50 games

We’re four days into the pitch clock era and the verdict appears almost unanimous: What took so long? I can imagine what one of those old circus posters in all-capital letters would look like:

BASEBALL IS BETTER THAN EVER!!!!
MORE HITS!! MORE STEALS!! LESS DEAD TIME!!!!
YOU STILL NEED 27 OUTS TO WIN!!!!

Through the season’s first 50 games, the average game time has been 2 hours, 39 minutes — down 25 minutes from last year’s nine-inning average. With restrictions on the shift, the league average on balls in play is up to .301 from .290, causing a two-point increase in overall batting average. With restrictions on the number of pickoff attempts, stolen bases are up a whopping 37%, with an impressive 84% success rate, giving us the highest rate of steals since 1997.

Sure, some of those offensive gains are modest, but keep in mind: (A) we haven’t seen most teams’ fourth or fifth starters yet, and (B) offense is usually a little lower in April than the rest of the season. The league batting average last April was just .232 before climbing to .243 by the end of the season. If the league can improve 11 points on the .245 average we’ve seen so far, a .256 mark would be the highest since a .257 average in 2010.

Mostly, however, it’s all about the faster pace the clock brings. Sure, there have been a few hiccups early on. Rafael Devers became the first batter to strike out with a clock infraction when he was deemed not ready in time and given a third strike — a not insignificant strike in a game the Boston Red Sox ended up losing 10-9. MLB admitted it got a call wrong when the New York Mets’ Jeff McNeil was charged with a strike when the umpires ruled teammate Pete Alonso had taken too long to return to first base after a foul ball. The Cleveland Guardians’ James Karinchak struggled with the clock on Opening Day, so Seattle fans began chanting down with each pitch during his next outing (to no avail).

“I do feel super rushed,” Chicago Cubs starter Marcus Stroman said after his start Thursday, in which he became the first pitcher charged with a violation. He managed to throw six scoreless innings anyway. Red Sox manager Alex Cora offered no excuse for Devers: “They know the rules,” he said.

Still, everyone seems to be on board with the new rules. Well, most everyone — I saw one fan complain that she drove 100 minutes to a Seattle Mariners game for 120 minutes of baseball. Most of us agree, however, with former major league pitcher Brandon McCarthy, who tweeted, “Gonna cry at how much I love the pitch clock. Truly don’t think people are ready for how much better this will make baseball.”

Let’s take a look at some other observations from the 2023 season’s first weekend of action.

1. The running game is back

I don’t know if this pace will continue. After all, pitchers are still learning to deal with the pitch clock, so holding runners and figuring out when and how to best deploy your two pickoff moves will come next. But the early returns are exciting: Steals are up from 0.51 per team per game to 0.71, and that high success rate, if it continues, will perhaps only embolden teams even more.

The Baltimore Orioles stole five bases in each of their first two games. Corbin Carroll stole three bases against the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday. New York Yankees rookie Anthony Volpe stole a base in each of his first three games. It will be fascinating to watch teams with a lot of speed like the Orioles, Guardians, Arizona Diamondbacks, Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays and see how aggressive they get on the basepaths.

2. The limits on the shift will no doubt help

They’ll help — if not quite as much as everyone is hoping. Juan Soto’s first hit of the season was a grounder up the middle, just past the reach of the shortstop stretching out to his left. A season ago, the shortstop would have been playing a few feet more to his left and made the play. I saw Shohei Ohtani drill a hard single just past the second baseman. Remember, infielders have to start on the dirt. A season ago, the second baseman would have been back on the grass and perhaps made that play.

Very small sample size results for left-handed batters:

BABIP in 2023: .288

BABIP on grounders in 2023: .221

BABIP in April 2022: .276

BABIP on grounders in April 2022: .213

3. The ups and downs of the Orioles

They’re already my pick for most exciting team of the season — for all the right reasons and all the wrong reasons. With Adley Rutschman — who went 5-for-5 with a walk on Opening Day — leading the way, they look like they’re going to score a lot of runs. Unfortunately, the pitching looks like it might give most of those back. After holding on to win 10-9 in the opener at Fenway, they lost 9-8 and 9-5. The Red Sox became just the third team since 1900 to score at least nine runs in their first three games (the 1978 Milwaukee Brewers did it in their first four).

Baltimore’s loss Saturday might prove to be the most painful one any team will suffer all season, and that’s not an exaggeration. Leading 8-7 with two outs in the bottom of the ninth, Masataka Yoshida lifted a routine fly ball to left fielder Ryan McKenna. Except, he dropped it. Clanked off the heel of his glove. Then Adam Duvall crushed one over the Green Monster for the walk-off win.

4. An early rash of injuries to starting pitchers

Justin Verlander landed on the injured list on Opening Day before throwing his first official pitch for the Mets; Max Fried tweaked a hamstring covering first base; Robbie Ray struggled in his outing and then landed on the IL with a left flexor strain. Verlander is still throwing and Fried isn’t expected to miss more than 10 days at a minimum, but Ray looks like he’ll be out at least four to six weeks. As always, rotation depth is paramount.

Just ask the Yankees, who began the season with Carlos Rodon, Luis Severino and Frankie Montas on the IL. Jhony Brito, making his major league debut, started the team’s third game. The 25-year-old right-hander wasn’t regarded as a top prospect entering the season — ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel didn’t rank him among the Yankees’ top 12; MLB.com had him at No. 27 — but he impressed with five scoreless innings Sunday in a 6-0 victory over the San Francisco Giants, allowing just two hits and one walk. He threw 51 of his 76 pitches for strikes, at one point whiffing five batters in a row — all swinging, all on changeups.

Recent Yankees pitching prospects like Deivi Garcia and Luis Gil have failed to take off, so now the team will rely on the unheralded Brito. We’ll see how the league adjusts to him. He wasn’t a big strikeout guy in the minors, but if he can continue to command his changeup like he did this weekend, he has a chance to succeed.

5. Kodai Senga makes his MLB debut

Speaking of New York pitchers, Senga made his debut for the Mets on Sunday and looked pretty good after showing some initial nerves in the bottom of the first, when he walked two batters and threw a wild pitch. He had already allowed a run and had the bases loaded with no outs but got two big strikeouts and a lineout to escape the jam. He settled down after that and ended up with eight strikeouts in 5⅓ innings. Senga can dial up to 97 mph, but his “ghost” forkball is his wipeout pitch. It’s different from the more popular splitter that we see a lot of Japanese pitchers throw — it’s a little slower with more tumbling action. He certainly fooled Yuli Gurriel with this one.

Senga isn’t regarded on the same level as Yoshinobu Yamamoto or flame-throwing phenom Roki Sasaki, the top two pitchers in Japan last season whose skill were on display in the World Baseball Classic, but he projects as a solid No. 3 with maybe a little more upside than that if he throws enough strikes. His stuff looks like it’s going to be difficult to elevate on a consistent basis — and sure enough, he allowed just 13 home runs over 390 innings the past three seasons in Japan.

6. Best opener of any pitcher?!

I wish I would have had the guts to list Jeffrey Springs as a sleeper Cy Young contender before his first start, but he had the most impressive opener of any pitcher with 12 strikeouts against the Detroit Tigers over six hitless innings. OK, it’s the Tigers — and if Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson don’t improve, that lineup is going to struggle against worse pitchers than Springs — but the Rays southpaw spots his fastball low in the zone and had the Tigers helpless on those fading changeups. Springs had been a journeyman reliever before coming out of nowhere last season to post a 2.46 ERA while starting 25 of 33 games. This start only confirms for me that what we saw last season is what we’ll see again in 2023.

7. The Tigers aren’t trying to win in 2023

Let’s be honest here: That’s the truth. Their only hope for respectability is for Greene and Torkelson to live up to their prospect hype, Javier Baez to bounce back, Austin Meadows to produce like he did for the Rays and for Miguel Cabrera to turn the clock back to 2013. We know one of those things isn’t happening. Some of the other items are possible, but the Tigers hit .147 in this first series with 30 strikeouts and six walks, scoring just three runs. There’s a chance the Tigers are again the worst offensive team in the majors like last season. I hope not; I’d love to see Greene and Torkelson develop into stars. If they don’t, the rebuilding road is going to be even longer than new president of baseball operations Scott Harris is planning on.

8. Best opening series: the Rangers

The Rangers swept the Philadelphia Phillies in impressive fashion. On Thursday, they overcame one of the worst starts of Jacob deGrom’s career to win 11-7 as they rallied from a 5-0 deficit. On Saturday, they pounded out 17 hits in a 16-3 victory. On Sunday, they scratched out a 2-1 victory — an early flip from last year’s script, when they went 15-35 in one-run games. Beating Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler is no easy task, and we already have to wonder whether the Phillies are going to go down the same road as the 2019 Red Sox, who started slow as their pitching staff struggled out of the gate. Nola, Wheeler and the key relievers pitched a lot of innings last October, and none looked sharp in their first outings.

9. Worst opening series: the Mariners

They had a sellout on Opening Day and won. But then they lost on Friday when Ray pitched poorly and got injured. They had a sellout for Julio Rodriguez bobblehead night Saturday and lost 2-0. They had another big crowd Sunday on another cold, 44-degree day — and lost 6-5 in 10 innings on a throwing error as Cal Raleigh tried to complete a 1-2-3 double play and bounced the throw to first. (Josh Naylor was inside the baseline, so it’s a surprise manager Scott Servais didn’t challenge the play.) Anyway, all that excitement and a stinker of an opening series is not a fun way to start the season. Luckily … 158 games to go, Mariners fans.

10. And finally … Aaron Judge

The Yankees captain has two home runs already — although the team’s most impressive home run was Giancarlo Stanton’s 485-foot blast Sunday, the second longest of his career and his longest with the Yankees. Anyway, given that Ohtani pitched six scoreless innings in his first start and crushed his first home run (447 feet) Sunday, we may already be looking at Judge vs. Ohtani, the MVP rematch.

Bring it on.