Executives and coaches audit NFL Rank: Hits and misses of top 100

In an NFL landscape where every debate must be embraced, why not let a couple of rankings duke it out, too?

Monday’s NFL Rank project saw ESPN ask a panel of our NFL experts to rate players based on performance expectations for the 2023 season in comparison to their peers. The project arrived about a month after we put a bow on our annual Top 10s project, in which NFL executives, coaches and scouts ranked the top players at each position entering 2023.

A review of the two rankings shows plenty of similarities in the order of each position — and a whole bunch of differences. We took some of the most significant points of debate and the league’s hot-button questions about the 2023 campaign to our network of NFL insiders, and that group weighed in on the finer points:

(All ranks reflect 2023 NFL Rank placement.)

Which player is going to break out in 2023?

There are so many options here, so let’s go with some of the less obvious ones.

Starting at cornerback, Houston’s Derek Stingley Jr. (unranked) has major pedigree as a 2022 No. 3 pick. He was overshadowed last season by the banner rookie performance of Sauce Gardner (No. 14), who was taken one spot after him by the Jets.

“He’s a match in [new Texans coach DeMeco Ryans’] system, and watching them, even though they aren’t as good [as the Jets], his talent will shine through,” an NFC executive said of Stingley. “He’s kind of lost in Houston. You’re going to get a good player there, playing to the billing we all thought.”

Other popular under-the-radar names are Buffalo pass-rusher Greg Rousseau (unranked) — “He’ll have double-digit sacks this year, easy,” an AFC scout said — and Baltimore rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers, about whom an NFC exec said, “Watching him, I thought, ‘Wow, he has a chance to turn some things upside down.'”

Will Aaron Rodgers (No. 29) have a top-five statistical season among QBs?

The consensus is yes — barely. It feels like since the Jets haven’t had a top-five passer since Boomer Esiason in 1993, betting on big yardage from New York’s passing game is a shaky endeavor, at best. But Rodgers had essentially lived in the top five in most passing categories as a Packer. Even in a down 2022 campaign, he finished No. 11 in yards and seventh in touchdowns.

“He’s still really good, and he’s got weapons around him,” an AFC executive said of Rodgers. “He should be able to throw for yards. Garrett Wilson [No. 43] will have a huge year. It will definitely be close, though.”

Some evaluators have seen a slight decline in Rodgers at age 39. But he has been reunited with offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who watched Rodgers win back-to-back MVPs as the Packers’ coordinator. And the Jets have receiver depth along with two quality backs in Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook. A two-back formula proved potent for Rodgers in Green Bay with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.

Battle for the best roster: Dolphins or 49ers?

The 49ers get the edge here. In our Top 10 rankings this summer, culling answers from 80-plus execs, coaches and scouts, San Francisco produced the most elite talent, with five players ranking in the top two at their positions: Nick Bosa (No. 9 in NFL rank), Christian McCaffrey (No. 10), Trent Williams (No. 18), Fred Warner (No. 23) and George Kittle (No. 30). But Miami’s mix of explosive offensive talent and intriguing young players makes this close.

“I would take [the Niners’] defensive talent over Miami’s,” an AFC personnel man said. “Their defensive line is probably the best. It matters how their quarterback plays, though. Deebo [Samuel, No. 44] with the ball in his hands is among the most dangerous.”

Young Miami defenders Jevon Holland (No. 84) and Jaelan Phillips (unranked) are among the Dolphins with high star upside. “Miami’s pure speed jumps off the tape,” the personnel man said.

Would you rather have Jalen Hurts (No. 3) or Joe Burrow (No. 4)?

The consensus is Burrow, but this is closer than I expected. Burrow was the overwhelming No. 2 quarterback in our summer rankings from league personnel, but some favor Hurts’ versatility.

“The run-game element is such a threat,” an NFL personnel director said. “Hurts is improving as a passer every year, and when you combine that with how savvy of a ball handler and rusher he is, it’s really problematic for a defense.”

On Philly’s offensive line, center Jason Kelce and others have raved about how Hurts’ decision-making as a runner and a passer makes their jobs easier.

But Burrow is still Burrow.

“Outside of [Patrick] Mahomes, Burrow is that next guy that you would build a team around,” an NFC exec said. “Everything he does says winner.”

And fair or not, some evaluators still want to see Hurts do more as a passer. “[The Super Bowl] was really the first time Hurts had to carry the team with his arm, in my opinion,” an AFC personnel evaluator said. “He did it, to his credit. But I’d like to see him do it again.”

Which team has the top WR duo in the league?

Miami. Tyreek Hill (No. 16) and Jaylen Waddle (No. 50) made up the league’s only 3,000-yard receiving duo last season. Their ability to blowtorch a defensive game plan earns the nod.

“The speed is a problem, because they can dictate the pace of the game and how defenses play that offense,” an NFC exec said. “Hill and Waddle on the field together is quite dangerous.”

But other duos are making a compelling case for the top spot. Cincinnati’s combo of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (Nos. 5 and 59) is considered in the top three, while Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (Nos. 19 and 57) loom large, too. “Devonta is nasty; might be the most underrated receiver right now,” an AFC exec said.

Which DT is hardest to plan for?

Evaluators still lean toward Aaron Donald (No. 8) here, though Chris Jones (No. 27) has narrowed the gap some. This Donald stat is still wild: He has faced 1,797 double-teams since 2017, 152 more than anyone else in the defensive field, yet he still leads all defensive tackles in pass rush win rate (26%) during that span.

“He’s one of the few guys I’ve ever seen who gets triple-teamed on occasion,” an NFL vice president of personnel said of Donald. “Occasionally, you will literally see that. He’s a monster player. And he works hard enough that he will age well, even if he declines slightly.”

Donald turned 32 in May, so someone else could overtake him in the next couple of years. But not yet. “Jones can play defensive end or tackle, so that gives him a little more positional flex, but Donald is still the better player,” the exec said.

The consensus is Bosa, who secured NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors after an 18.5-sack season. “He finds a way to make winning, game-changing plays seemingly every week,” an NFC exec said.

For the sake of roster building, Parsons has an edge in a few areas: He is younger (age 24, and Bosa is 25), has a more affordable contract (entering the third year of his rookie deal while Bosa is holding out for an extension) and might have the higher ceiling/trajectory due to two All-Pro first-team selections and back-to-back second-place finishes in the Defensive Player of the Year race through just two seasons.

“As a pass-rusher and overall chess piece, I could see Parsons,” an AFC personnel evaluator. “But Bosa is probably better against the run, and Bosa will probably hold up a little better. Because of Micah’s background as a linebacker, he could have durability issues as a full-time rusher.”

It’s a tight race, but Chubb gets the nod. McCaffrey is more versatile as a pass-catcher, while Chubb is considered the best ball carrier in the league. Both are 27 years old. Chubb has proved more durable, missing no more than four games in any of his five NFL seasons, while McCaffrey has missed 23 games since 2020.

“I guess it depends on your offense, but if you need a pure runner, I’m taking Chubb all day over anybody,” an NFC exec said. “I liked him better than Saquon [Barkley] coming out.”

Despite 1,210 carries in five seasons, Chubb finished every year with an average of at least a 5.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, McCaffrey should continue to dominate in San Francisco’s offense after posting 10 touchdowns (four receiving) in 11 games with the Niners after being traded from Carolina last season.

Who’s the rookie you expect to make the top 100 in 2024?

The Falcons’ Bijan Robinson is the obvious answer. Many evaluators would place him among the top five to seven running backs right now — before he plays an NFL down. “He’s a complete player,” an NFC scout said. “He makes special plays look routine.”

But the second running back taken in the draft elicited nearly as many responses.

“I can’t wait to see how Detroit uses Jahmyr [Gibbs],” an AFC exec said. “He’s probably my favorite guy that I watched in the fall.”

Expect some tight ends to ascend. Dalton Kincaid has majorly impressed in Buffalo. “Don’t be surprised if he catches something close to 75 passes this year,” an AFC scout said. And so has Sam LaPorta in Detroit. “That dude is going to be a really good player, a significant option in that offense,” an AFC exec said.

Will Calvin Ridley (No. 89) return to elite WR status in 2023?

This is a resounding yes. Ridley was knocking on the door of top-10 wideout status before his yearlong suspension. And the early returns out of Jacksonville’s camp have been strong. Ridley’s route running has been superb, to the point that Jaguars coaches had to remind him to almost suppress the explosiveness at times so he can set up his defenders. That’s a good problem to have.

“He’s got elite footwork,” an NFC scout said. “He hasn’t lost that. And he’ll have a really good quarterback [Trevor Lawrence] throwing him the ball.”

Which first-time 2022 playoff QB will be tougher to face: Justin Herbert (No. 11) or Trevor Lawrence (No. 28)?

Herbert prevails here. Many evaluators agree he is a top-five quarterback right now, while Lawrence is on the back half of the top 10.

“[Herbert] was stifled a bit in that offense last year, but I think [new coordinator] Kellen Moore will help bring out his best with more downfield shots and receivers moving around more,” an AFC executive said. “Both players have really good weapons around them. And Trevor is going to be a beast. But Herbert’s a little further along at this stage.”

Lawrence showed proof of concept in year two. Now he plans to make a bigger jump in his third year, gaining 6 to 7 pounds of muscle this offseason; refining his throwing mechanics; and working on mastering Doug Pederson’s offense, including taking the checkdown when the big play isn’t there.