UKR forces have penetrated Russian defensive positions in Robotyne Sector

The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire.

Kursk Airbase in western Russia was attacked by counter-intelligence agents of the 13th Main Directorate of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) on the night of August 26-27, according to NV sources.

Four Russian Su-30 fighters and a MiG-29 aircraft, as well as two Pantsyr air defense systems and S-300 radars were hit with attack drones. Nearly all reached their targets, with only three intercepted by Russian air defense, said the source.

english.nv.ua/…

• Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern and eastern Ukraine.
• A Ukrainian soldier likely operating in the Robotyne area offered further tactical details on the prepared Russian defensive positions that Ukrainian forces have penetrated and on those that are currently ahead of them.
• The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire.
• Russian forces conducted missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on the night of August 26 to 27 and reportedly targeted a Ukrainian airfield in Kyiv Oblast.
• The Russian Investigative Committee announced on August 27 that genetic tests confirm that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was among 10 people killed in a plane crash on August 23.
• Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had been actively setting conditions to halt Wagner Group’s operations in the Middle East and Africa prior to Prigozhin’s death on August 23.
• The Russian MoD may be more intensely focused on disbanding the Wagner Group than Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make confirmed advances.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to coerce migrants and foreigners living in Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian citizenship.

www.criticalthreats.org/…

The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire. ISW recently assessed that a lack of observed uncommitted Russian forces in the area may suggest that a subsequent series of Russian defensive positions may be less heavily defended than the positions that Ukrainian forces already penetrated to the north, although this remains unclear.[x] Russian forces have reportedly conducted additional lateral transfers to the Robotyne area with elements of the 76th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Division from the Kreminna area in Luhansk Oblast and are also reportedly redeploying unspecified elements from the Kherson direction to the area.[xi] Russian forces committed elements of the 7th VDV Division immediately to combat after laterally transferring them to the Robotyne area in early August, although the Russian command could decide to commit these new reinforcements to strengthen the next series of defensive positions south of the current Ukrainian advance.[xii] Russian forces committed a considerable amount of materiel, effort, and manpower to hold the series of defensive positions that Ukrainian forces are currently penetrating, and it is unclear if Russian forces will retain the advantages they have held if they cannot commit the same level of resources and personnel to these next layers of defense.[xiii] The next Russian defensive layer will, nevertheless, very likely pose significant challenges for the Ukrainian advance.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction but did not make any confirmed gains on August 27. Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Ilya Yevlash stated that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction, where there were 14 combat engagements during the past day.[xxxviii]…Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov claimed that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack Chechen ”Akhmat” Spetsnaz elements holding positions near Klishchiivka.[xl]

Russian forces continued counterattacks near Bakhmut on August 27 but did not advance. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful offensive actions near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (11km northwest of Bakhmut) and Klishchiivka.[xli] … Yevlash stated that Russian forces in the Bakhmut area typically conduct assaults with designated assault detachments, sometimes without artillery support, that are then followed by regular Russian personnel.[xliv]

A Ukrainian commander operating in the Bakhmut area stated on August 24 that Russian forces transferred “fresh” elements of unspecified newly created units and elements of units from unspecified Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine to the Bakhmut direction.[xlvi] ISW has previously observed Russian milbloggers describe likely tactical rotations in place as rotations.[xlvii] The milblogger is likely not describing rotations wherein Russian forces would replace a committed unit with a previously uncommitted unit or formation so that the initial unit could rest and reconstitute, as Russian forces likely lack the required operational reserves to do so.[xlviii] ISW has not observed evidence of additional Russian units or formations recently arriving in the Bakhmut direction. Ukrainian forces have recently conducted rotations in other sectors of the front and likely possess operational reserves to conduct further rotations.[xlix]

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area on August 27 and reportedly advanced. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Oleksandr Shtupun reported on August 27 that Ukrainian forces advanced in the Urozhaine area (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) and were successful near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) in the Berdyansk direction (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area).[liv]…

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 27 and reportedly advanced. Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces are advancing in the directions of Novoprokopivka (13km south of Orikhiv), Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv), and Ocheretuvate (25km southeast of Orikhiv).[lvi] Shtupun also stated that Ukrainian forces advanced near Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and were successful in the Melitopol direction (western Zaporizhia Oblast).[lvii] Russian sources claimed on August 26 and 27 that Ukrainian forces attacked near Kopani (12km southwest of Orikhiv) and advanced near Robotyne and toward Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv).[lviii] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian assaults near Robotyne and near Balka Uspenivka (11km southeast of Orikhiv).[lix]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Russian authorities continue efforts to coerce migrants and foreigners living in Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian citizenship. Russian independent media outlet Horizontal Russia 7×7 reported on August 27 that Russian authorities refuse to consider citizenship applications from Tajik and Uzbek migrants in Kaluga Oblast until the migrants sign military service contracts.[lxviii] Several migrants stated that Russian authorities continue to deny their citizenship applications despite the military enlistment office declaring them ineligible for military service.[lxix] Russian sources reported on August 26 that the Russian State Duma will consider a bill proposing that Russian authorities revoke the acquired citizenship of foreigners who fail to register for military service within two weeks of receiving their Russian passport or otherwise attempt to evade military duty.[lxx] The bill also proposes that Russian authorities deport foreigners after revoking their citizenship.[lxxi]

www.criticalthreats.org/…

x

The Ukrainian offensive in the Robotyne sector has progressed, and the first Russian main defence line has been reached.

In this thread we’ll take a closer look at the main defensive line and what might happen next.

This thread includes high resolution satellite imagery. 1/ pic.twitter.com/0NJzSaKaME

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) August 27, 2023

The Ukrainian offensive in the Robotyne sector has progressed, and the first Russian main defence line has been reached.In this thread we’ll take a closer look at the main defensive line and what might happen next.This thread includes high resolution satellite imagery. 1/

Ukrainians have been trying to advance in the Robotyne area since June. After over two and a half months of fighting, Ukraine has liberated most of Robotyne and continued south, bypassing Novoprokokivka.In this map, you can see the Southern front on 1.6. and now, 27.8.2/

The first significant fortified obstacle is located just outside Robotyne. The Russians have prepared formidable defences, which include covered firing positions and bunkers. From here, the Russians can defend against attacks from both north and east. Zoom in for details. 3/

At the moment it seems like Ukraine doesn’t want to attack straight towards these heavily fortified positions. Instead, they’re flanking the whole village of Novoprokokivka, and have established themselves between the positions south of Robotyne and the main defence line. 4/

The Ukrainians have roughly two immediate directions:

1. Try to open up the main road in Novoprokokivka and continue towards the heavier main defence fortifications at Solodka Balka.

2. Try to breach the main defensive line near Verbove and continue towards Ocheretuvate. 5/

Let’s take a look at the defences in the village of Solodka Balka. At the beginning of August, Russians were improving the positions they built during spring. You can see a lot of construction material, especially steel elements, which are used as roof material. 6/

The Russians have built 100-350m long communication trenches, which helps them both reinforce or retreat from the fighting positions. The built area of the village works as a buffer zone, and immediately after the village ends, another trenchline begins. 7/

Heavy fortifications are built in order to block any potential advance on the main road towards Tokmak. This is an important avenue of approach, so defending it is very logical. However, while concentrating on this section, the Russians may have missed something important. 8/

The main defence line west of Verbove seems to be in a significantly worse state.At the beginning of August, no preparation work for finalizing these trenches had begun. At the end of August, low-resolution images show almost no signs of any trench improvements either. 10/

There are sections with no covered firing positions and very few accommodation bunkers, even though great effort was put into this in other places. However, the Russians tend to fortify the treelines, but only limited indicators of this can be seen in these images.

The topographic heatmap gives also some additional insight to the battlefield. Russians have constructed most of their defences on dominant heights, and there is no way to completely avoid fighting uphill.The highlighted ridge is the next tactically central point. 12/

The height differences are not extremely dramatic, and the treelines reduce the Russian field of fire. In this area, the best attempt for the Ukrainians would likely be to continue forward, breach the line between Solodka Balka and Verbove, and start flanking operations. 13/

This situation would provide a better basis for future operations, for example attacking the actual villages of Verbove and Novoprokokivka. Widening the salient is necessary in order to create a sustainable frontline. 14/

Soon, AFU has to start clearing the flanks more intensively. The offensive cannot continue south indefinitely – Ukrainians must, at some point, start focusing more on Kopani or Verbove. Ukraine may face challenges in force distribution and prioritization. 15/

If the attacks in the flanks do not succeed, the spearhead will also slow down, giving the Russians time to prepare defences in depth. This is actually happening already – the Russians have started constructing additional defense lines in the Berdyansk/Mariupol direction.  16/

So, the main points of this thread:- Fortifications are not as strong in all areas of the first main defensive line, as known as the Surovikin line- Russian preparedness varies- Positive developments for Ukraine are possible in the near future, especially local success17/

Thanks for reading, this thread took forever to make. The images are from 1.-2.8.2023. They do not endanger Ukrainian OPSEC in any way. Thanks also to @wihurinrahasto for funding us! Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to follow the situation.  18(18 scribblemaps.com