Russia’s Pacific naval fleet likely lacks the “combat power” needed to posture in a way that would be seen as threatening to others, a think tank has said.
The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank, in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine on Friday commented on Russia’s decision to conduct missile launches and torpedo tests as part of a surprise inspection of its Pacific Fleet.
The ISW said that the Kremlin likely intended to use the Pacific Fleet’s combat readiness checks to attempt to deter further Japanese support for Ukraine ahead of the Group of Seven (G7) summit in May. According to data released on April 4 by the German-based Kiel Institute for the Global Economy, total aid given by Japan to Ukraine throughout the war amounted to €5.66 billion ($6.2 billion) as of February 24.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu made the announcement on Friday, saying on state television that its objective “is to increase the ability of the Armed Forces to repel the aggression of a probable enemy from the direction of ocean and sea.”
The inspection aims to “evaluate the state and increase the readiness of military command, troops, and forces to undertake missions in all strategic directions,” Shoigu said, adding that it would repulse an enemy landing in the southern Kuril Islands and Sakhalin Island.
The Kunashiri, Etorofu, Shikotan and Habomai islands of the Kuril Island chain were seized by the Soviet Union at the end of World War II. Tokyo claims the islands as its “Northern Territories” and the issue has strained relations between Russia and Japan for decades. A peace treaty formally ending World War II has never been signed by Russia and Japan, largely because of disputes over the group of islands claimed by Japan but occupied by Russia.
Because of their location between the large Japanese island of Hokkaido and Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, the islands offer a number of military and political benefits.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is set to chair the G7 summit from May 19 to 21, made a surprise visit to Ukraine’s capital Kyiv in March, saying that his country “was able to demonstrate its determination to lead the response to the invasion of Ukraine.”
“Russia’s Eastern Military District (EMD) recently deployed a battery of Bastion coastal defense missile systems to Paramushir Island in the northern portion of the Russian-occupied Japanese Kuril Islands, which ISW assessed was likely a warning to Japan about further supporting Ukraine,” the think tank said.
The ISW said Russia likely intends to use “military posturing” in the North Pacific to raise fears about military escalation with Tokyo in an increased effort to prevent Japan from further supporting Kyiv when it hosts the G7 meeting in Hiroshima.
But the Russian military “is in no position to threaten Japan at this time,” the ISW assessed, noting that it previously reported that elements of the 40th and 155th Naval Infantry Brigades of the Pacific Fleet suffered heavy losses near Vuhledar, in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, early this year, and in late 2022.
“The Pacific Fleet likely lacks the available combat power in the Pacific region to posture in a way that would be truly threatening to Japan or suitable for Russia power projection attempts that would be able to convince China that it is an equal military power,” the ISW wrote.
Newsweek has contacted Russia’s Defense Ministry by email for comment.
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