Lamar Jackson or trade up to No. 3: Which is a better option for the Colts?

Colts general manager Chris Ballard didn’t say his team was out on Lamar Jackson, but he didn’t say it was in on the Ravens quarterback, either.

There was no declarative statement on Indianapolis pursuing Jackson.

It’s not forthcoming, it’s not impending and it’s not imminent, despite what some would like to hear.

“Any time a special player is available, which he is, you’ve gotta do the work,” Ballard said at the NFL owners’ meetings. “I’m not gonna get into deep discussions on where it’s at or what we’re doing or what we might do. All I can tell you is he’s a really good player, really special player. But you never know how any of this will work out.”

The first part of Ballard’s comments is what grabbed all of the headlines.

The last part is what’s being overlooked. Because in all likelihood, we do know how this will work out.

Jackson probably won’t be the Colts’ next franchise quarterback, and the team will find its future signal caller in the draft.

Indy’s offseason moves so far, like signing potential bridge QB Gardner Minshew and trading starting cornerback Stephon Gilmore, speak to that approach along with other comments Ballard and owner Jim Irsay made at the owners’ meetings.

“Our belief and my belief has always been, you build through the draft. The draft is your pipeline for success or failure,” Irsay said. “That is where it’s at, and I think you guys will see, the best teams that are playing well now and in the last 10 years had drafted quarterbacks and developed them.”

Only four of the last 20 Super Bowl champions’ starting QBs were not drafted or acquired via trade on draft night by that franchise: Drew Brees and the Saints in 2009, Peyton Manning and the Broncos in 2015, Tom Brady and the Buccaneers in 2020 and Matthew Stafford and the Rams in 2021.

With that in mind, a more realistic option than signing Jackson that I expect the Colts’ higher-ups to mull over is whether to trade up to the No. 3 pick or stay put at No. 4. Indianapolis will likely miss out on the top two QB prospects, Alabama’s Bryce Young and Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud, since Carolina and Houston need quarterbacks and are picking first and second, respectively. The Colts’ decision likely would then come down to Florida’s Anthony Richardson or Kentucky’s Will Levis, and whether there’s a significant gap between the two.

There have been two instances of QB-needy teams moving up to No. 3 in recent years:

• The 49ers traded up for Trey Lance in 2021 and sent the Dolphins the No. 12 pick, a 2022 first-rounder, a 2022 third-rounder and a 2023 first-rounder.

• The Jets traded up for Sam Darnold in 2018 and sent the Colts the No. 6 pick (Quenton Nelson), the No. 37 pick (Braden Smith), another 2018 second-rounder (traded to the Eagles) and a 2019 second-rounder.

The last time a team specifically moved up from No. 4 to No. 3 was in 2012. Cleveland traded the No. 4 selection, a fourth-rounder, a fifth-rounder and a seventh-rounder that year to Minnesota in exchange for the No. 3 pick and the right to draft running back Trent Richardson.

If the Colts were sold on Levis or Richardson, I think they could trade up to No. 3 in exchange for the No. 4 pick, one of their three fifth-rounders and a 2024 second-rounder, or a similar package that doesn’t involve their 2024 first-round pick. By retaining its first-round selection, Indianapolis would then be able to add another franchise-altering player (dare I say wideout Marvin Harrison Jr.?) next season.

“Everyone said, ‘Well, you just put Peyton Manning in and you’re automatically a winner. You don’t have to do anything now. You just have to focus on the Super Bowl because you’re gonna win 11 games or whatever, easily,’” Irsay said, comparing Manning, who was drafted No. 1 in 1998, to signing Jackson. “It’s not true. You need more than just a quarterback. … You have to have the quarterback, but to go where you really want to go, everyone knows you need more than the quarterback. And you have to find a way to get that more.”

One way to significantly restrict the “more” Irsay alluded to is signing Jackson. The Ravens placed the non-exclusive franchise tag on the 26-year-old, allowing him to negotiate with other teams, but Jackson is reportedly seeking a fully guaranteed contract on par with the five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed deal Deshaun Watson received from the Browns last summer.

Even if Irsay — who said he is vehemently against large fully guaranteed deals — shelled out the cash, Indianapolis would still have to send Baltimore two first-round picks if the Ravens decided not to match. Not to mention Jackson, who was the 2019 league MVP and has a remarkable 45-16 record as an NFL regular-season starter, has missed 11 games (including one postseason contest) over the last two seasons and has gone 1-3 as a starter in the playoffs. His talent is undeniable, but there are legitimate questions about his long-term durability and lack of playoff success.

Is that worth rolling the dice for?

On one hand, the answer is yes because Jackson is a proven commodity and one of the most dynamic players in the NFL when healthy.

But on the other, it’s not because he won’t come cheap and there’s no guarantee his body will hold up.

“Any time at that position we got a chance to acquire a guy, you’ve gotta do your work on it to see if it’s doable,” Ballard said. “Sometimes it is. Sometimes it’s not.”

From my perspective, in theory, it’s “doable” but in reality “it’s not.” Indianapolis has left the door cracked ever so slightly for Jackson, though perhaps a better bet is to move up to No. 3, pick a rookie signal caller and finally end the veteran QB merry-go-round that’s plagued the team since Andrew Luck walked away from football in 2019.

“When you have a young quarterback, a rookie quarterback, it gives you the opportunity to build the franchise for the first three to four years while you have that lower (salary-cap) number,” Irsay said. “And that is so essential because the money is going to be spent (eventually). That’s not in question. The question is how do you spend it and are you going to be able to sustain greatness?”

(Top photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images)