Orioles vs. Yankees Odds
The Baltimore Orioles own a three-game lead over the New York Yankees in the AL wild-card race and sit five back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East race entering Thursday’s matchup in the Bronx.
Baltimore is a steady favorite in this matchup pitting Kyle Bradish (3.58 ERA in 78 IP) against Luis Severino (6.30 ERA in 40 IP).
The Orioles need a win to earn a split of this four-game series at Yankee Stadium. Will they get it done?
Check out my Orioles vs. Yankees preview below, which includes a betting pick on the moneyline.
Bradish enters this matchup on the best run of his young career. He has pitched to an ERA of 2.16 over his last 25 innings, with a WHIP of just 0.88.
By no means will that kind of dominance hold, but Bradish is seemingly turning a corner and figuring out how to better utilize his elite stuff. He has been throwing less of his subpar fastball and relying more upon his dominant breaking pitches.
His Stuff+ rating comes in at 122, with a strong Location+ rating of 102. Bradish’s slider rates as one of the better pitches in baseball at 162, and his curveball is elite as well at 137. Both of those pitches have found strong results, as batters own xSLG rates of .387 and .289.
Bradish has now thrown his slider 29.9% of the time and his curveball 17.4% of the time this season. His four-seam fastball got crushed last year and it’s being crushed again this year, only now it’s being used 27.1% of the time compared to 44.7%.
His season xERA comes in at 4.49, with a strong xFIP of 3.83. If he can continue to better utilize his elite pitches, it seems likely that he can continue averaging fewer than four runs against per 9 moving forward.
Baltimore has hit to a 102 wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season with a .318 wOBA. Austin Hays’ status for this matchup is unclear as he is close to return from a hip contusion. His .849 OPS versus righties would be a meaningful addition.
While Bradish is in the midst of the best stretch of his young career, Luis Severino might be in the worst of his, as he has never settled into form after a lat injury in spring training. Over the last 28 1/3 innings, Severino owns a shocking ERA of 8.26, with a WHIP of 1.65.
Over the last 250 PAs, Severino’s xWOBA has absolutely skyrocketed. He now owns an xERA of 6.94 on the season, which is actually worse than his 6.30 ERA.
His stuff is still rating well at 102 Stuff+, with a Location+ of 103. Those marks could be taken as a positive, but even still they certainly don’t mean a turnaround to his former self will happen anytime soon. Batters own an xSLG of .444 or better on each of Severino’s four pitches, and an xSLG of .534 overall.
New York’s offense has been well below league average for what has now become a meaningful sample. Over the last 30 days the Yankees own a wRC+ of 87, which is the fourth worst clip in the league throughout that span.
Orioles vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Bradish continues to find better results, and there seems to be some reasonable arguments as to why that will continue. Even with some expectation that Severino should clean his act up to an extent, Bradish still has to be viewed as a better pitcher for the time being and offers an edge over Severino in this matchup, .
Baltimore’s offensive play has been better than New York’s all season long, and that has continued of late.
Considering those two edges I would bet the Orioles to win this matchup down to -130.
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