Russian forces in Ukraine have failed to meet a key deadline for progress in eastern Ukraine ahead of a long-touted counteroffensive from Kyiv, according to a new assessment.
Moscow did not manage to “achieve the Kremlin’s goals” of exerting control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March 31, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank said on Saturday.
The two regions, which collectively make up the Donbas, saw fighting between Kyiv and Russian-backed separatists break out in 2014. They have seen many of the heaviest clashes since the start of the all-out war in February 2022.
Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s intelligence service, said Moscow had fallen short of its objectives in “taking Donbas by the end of March.”
“The regular deadlines and tasks that Putin set for the occupation corps in Ukraine, in particular, for [Russian Chief of General Staff] Valery Gerasimov after he was appointed to be responsible for the war in Ukraine, have failed,” he added in a press release.
Gerasimov took over Russian operations in Ukraine in early January, spearheading a “general winter offensive” to take control of Donetsk and Luhansk, the British defense ministry said on Saturday.
“Eighty days on, it is increasingly apparent that this project has failed,” the government department said in its daily update.
The slow pace of Russian progress in the Donetsk cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka has been noted by the influential milblogger community, who judged that Moscow cannot continue “a large-scale offensive operation” without taking Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the coming weeks, the ISW wrote.
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The Donbas city of Bakhmut has long seen bitter fighting between Kyiv’s and Moscow’s forces. Avdiivka, to the north of Donetsk City, is also part of Russia’s “main efforts” in Ukraine, the Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces said on Sunday.
Russian forces need to end their operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive in the next six weeks, the Russian milblogger community “fretted,” the ISW wrote.
Reports have circulated of a decisive Ukrainian push in the spring to regain Russian-held territory across Ukraine. But Ukrainian officials have stressed the importance of Western supplies before attempting such an operation.
Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, also suggested in late March that it would depend on weather conditions. Speaking to Estonian media, Reznikov hinted the recently-received deliveries of NATO-standard tanks could play into when a counter-offensive is launched.
“The arrival of equipment in Ukraine likely sets conditions for a Ukrainian counteroffensive,” the ISW wrote on March 29.
U.S. Defense Secretary, Lloyd Austin, argued that fighting will likely increase as “the conditions for maneuver improve.” Speaking to the Senate Committee on Armed Forces last month, he argued Ukraine “will have a very good chance of success” in such a counteroffensive.
Newsweek has reached out to Russia’s defense ministry for comment via email.
