U.S. auto sales are set to cap off a stronger-than-expected first half of 2023 with rising June sales, analysts project. GM stock and Ford stock gained Monday, while Tesla stock and Rivian stock surged.
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General Motors (GM) is teeing up to report Q2 new vehicle sales in the U.S. on Wednesday, following the Fourth of July holiday.
Ford (F), Toyota Motor (TM) and Honda (HMC) will also report U.S. Q2 sales. Stellantis (STLA) on Monday reported a 6% year-over-year increase in Q2 new vehicle sales in the U.S. Its Q2 sales came in above analyst estimates.
Rivian Stock, Tesla Jump
EV startup Rivian (RIVN) on Monday reported Q2 sales well above views. So did EV giant Tesla (TSLA) on Sunday.
That is likely to bring more attention to Q2 EV sales from legacy automakers making a costly and ambitious shift to electric vehicles. Their generally lackluster Q1 EV sales showed the scale of challenges.
RIVN stock rocketed 17.4% Monday. TSLA stock shot up 6.9%.
Q2 Auto Sales To Grow, EV Sales
The annualized sales pace of U.S. new vehicle sales for June is set to reach 15.8 million units. That would be up 4.6% from 15.1 million in May and a 22.5% jump from 12.9 million units in June 2022, J.D. Power and GlobalData estimate.
In unit terms, U.S. new vehicle sales are expected to reach almost 4.1 million during the second quarter, up 13.2% from Q1 and up 15.3% from Q2 2022, Cox said. Low vehicle inventories amid snarled supply chains curbed sales in the year-ago quarter.
Here is how automakers are expected to perform in Q2, according to analysts at Cox Automotive. The estimates show auto sales volume, as well as sales growth or decline vs. a year ago.
General Motors Auto Sales
Q2 sales estimate: 675,417 vehicles, up 16.7% vs. Q2 2022. That would also be up from 603,208 vehicles sold in Q1.
Results: Check back Wednesday.
GM stock rose 1% to 38.96 in Monday’s stock market action.
Toyota Motor
Q2 sales estimate: 555,402 vehicles, up 4.6% vs. a year ago. That would also be up from 469,558 auto sales in Q1.
Results: Check back Wednesday.
Toyota Motor stock eased 0.2% Monday.
Ford
Q2 sales estimate: 523,717 vehicles, up 9% vs. a year ago. That would also be up from 475,906 auto sales in Q1.
Results: Check back later.
Ford stock gained 0.7% Monday.
Stellantis
Q2 sales estimate: 433,992 vehicles, up 6.2% vs. a year ago. That would also be up from 368,237 auto sales in Q1.
Results: Stellantis sold 434,648 vehicles in Q2, up 6% year over year.
“We saw increased demand this quarter as market conditions continue to improve,” Stellantis U.S. sales chief Jeff Kommor said in a news release.
Stellantis stock advanced 1.5% Monday.
Honda
Q2 sales estimate: 350,220 vehicles, up 46.1%. That would also be up from 284,507 auto sales in Q1.
Results: Check back Wednesday.
Honda stock rose 1.2% Monday.
U.S. Auto Sales, EV Sales Outlook
Higher vehicle production — after years of constrained auto supply — is driving growth for U.S. auto sales, analysts say. Along with markedly improved inventories, pent-up consumer demand and rising fleet sales are seen underpinning growth.
After an unexpectedly strong first half, Cox Automotive last Tuesday raised its sales forecast for the full year to 15 million units. That would be up almost 8% from 13.9 million in 2022.
Sales of all-electric or battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are forecast to reach nearly 500,000 units in the first six months of 2023, Cox Auto said. That would be an increase of 41% from 355,000 a year ago.
In 2023, U.S. EV sales are on track to surpass 1 million units for the first time, Cox said.
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