The Nevada men’s basketball team plays at San Jose State on Friday. Nevada Sports Net’s Chris Murray breaks down the game with his three keys to victory and prediction. This feature is presented in partnership with Bradley, Drendel & Jeanney.
Nevada (21-6, 8-5 MW) at San Jose State (9-18, 2-12)
When: Friday, 7 p.m.
Where: Provident Credit Union Event Center (5,000 capacity)
TV/Radio: FS1/95.5 FM
Online: None
Betting line: Nevada by 9.5; total of 140.5
Three keys for Nevada to win
1. Dominate the interior: Despite having solid size, San Jose State is weak in the interior. The Spartans have been outrebounded by 4.0 boards per game with their minus-5.71 rebounds per game in MW play ranking last in the conference. SJSU is bottom 40 in the nation in rebounding rate, so this should be a big advantage area for the Wolf Pack, which is an average rebounding team. The Wolf Pack outrebounded the Spartans 45-31 in the first game between these teams with Nevada grabbing 18 offensive rebounds, including a career-high seven from Nick Davidson, who had 11 boards overall. That led to a massive 21-5 edge in second-chance points. Nevada shouldn’t have much trouble dominating the paint.
2. Plus-10 from charity stripe: SJSU doesn’t get to the free throw line. The Spartans average a MW-low 11.9 free throws per conference game. The Wolf Pack averages a MW-best 23.6 free throw attempts per conference game. That’s a plus-11.7 advantage Nevada must leverage in this game. It certainly did that in the first matchup between these teams as the Wolf Pack made 21-of-33 free throws to the Spartans’ 4-of-9. Nevada drew 24 fouls while being called for just 13. The whistle might not be quite as friendly on the road Friday night, but if Nevada plays with aggressiveness offensively against a SJSU defense that is the MW’s worst (305th in KenPom), it should get to the line plenty throughout the night.
3. Limit the 3-point hits: The Spartans are a greatly flawed team that needs to hit a lot of threes to overcome those issues and win games. SJSU is 2-11 when hitting fewer than nine 3-pointers, so we’ll set that as the mark for this game. Nevada needs to hold the Spartans to less than nine 3-point makes. When SJSU makes at least nine threes, it is 7-7. The problem for SJSU is it struggles from three against good teams. The Spartans have made 35.2 percent of its 3-pointers, but that mark is 28.6 percent against top-100 NET teams (Nevada is 41st in NET). SJSU has made 38.2 percent of its threes against teams with a NET of 101 or higher. Given those numbers, Nevada should be able to contain SJSU’s shooters.
Prediction
Nevada 77, San Jose State 63: SJSU has been better at home (6-7) than the road (1-10), but this Spartans team will need a lot to go right to put pressure on the Wolf Pack late in the game. SJSU has lost its last 12 games against non-Air Force teams (it is 2-0 against the Falcons during that stretch). And while the Spartans played nearly even at home against Boise State and San Diego State, those games were in early January. SJSU’s last six games against the MW’s top-seven teams have resulted in an 0-6 record and average margin of defeat of 22.3 points. I’m surprised the betting line in this game is in the single-digits. Nevada should cover that after beating the Spartans by 30 earlier this month in Reno. Season record: 22-5
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Contact him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @ByChrisMurray.
