The blueprint to beat Iowa has been exposed. Can Hawkeyes overcome it?

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BLOOMINGTON, Ind. — What was exposed in a fourth-quarter collapse against Nebraska earlier this month was exacerbated on Thursday during Iowa’s 86-69 loss to Indiana at Assembly Hall.

The 17-point difference was Iowa women’s basketball’s largest margin of defeat this season by a long shot. But traces of a formula that could lead to a letdown of this magnitude came Feb. 11 in Lincoln, Neb. 

Iowa, which entered the fourth quarter of that road game against Nebraska up by 14 points, was outscored by 17 the rest of the way, leading to a disappointing loss. Nebraska played a box-and-one defense during that stretch, primarily focused on stopping Caitlin Clark, and the move ignited a comeback. 

Iowa scored just 10 points that quarter, none of which were put through the net by Clark.

On Thursday, Indiana found success in a similar fashion. At times, Indiana face-guarded Clark in the halfcourt while playing man-to-man. The Hoosiers also changed their look, transitioning to a zone not too different — if at all — from what Nebraska threw at Iowa in the fourth quarter earlier this month.

In simple terms, on both occasions, Iowa’s opposition basically employed a strategy that said: We are going to make life about as difficult as possible for Clark while also doing just enough to slow down those around her. 

That worked for Nebraska. It did so again for Indiana.

Clark finished Thursday with 24 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists, though her scoring came on an inefficient 8-of-26 from the field, including 3-of-16 from deep, plus committing five turnovers. The risk Indiana took in putting so much attention on Clark worked in part because the players around her didn’t make the Hoosiers pay for it. 

“They had a great game plan,” Iowa coach Lisa Bluder said of Indiana. “I think it frustrated Caitlin at times.”

More: Iowa women’s basketball’s Big Ten title hopes take major hit with loss at Indiana

The danger of Thursday isn’t so much about an ugly loss as it is the blueprint that was exposed in raw fashion, and the trouble it could lead to. This seems to be the prototype to beat Iowa. Give an overwhelming amount of attention to stopping Clark — or at least make her work harder to score. Force others to make shots. Be more physical.

That’s easier said than done, but the formula is out in the open now. If you’re a women’s college basketball coach game-planning for Iowa, choosing what film to watch should be pretty simple. Start with the fourth quarter against Nebraska. Then move on to Thursday’s game against Indiana.

The challenge for Iowa is finding a way to counter that.

“Credit to Caitlin Clark,” Indiana star Mackenzie Holmes said. “She’s a phenomenal player, a phenomenal scorer. We knew she was going to get hers. She was going to get 25, 30, 40 points, whatever it looked like. But we had a goal in mind to 1) make it an inefficient 30, 40 points and 2) keep the others out of it.”

Not every team is capable of doing that. The Hawkeyes can simply overwhelm some opponents with their talent. Clark can be too big, too fast and too strong for some to even have a chance. But that doesn’t always work against a team like the Hoosiers, who, despite coming off a 20-point road loss, are a tough out, especially when they are playing in an electric Assembly Hall.

More: Caitlin Clark asked about Indiana Fever: ‘I’m not really too worried about the future’

Indiana is 13-3 in the Big Ten, a half-game ahead of Iowa (12-3). Ohio State leads the league at 14-1.

If Iowa is going to rise to its biggest ambitions this season, it has to rely on more than just the sheer talent of (mostly) one person.

That has been a concern this season all along. With the departures of McKenna Warnock and Monika Czinano from an Iowa team that made it to the NCAA championship game last season, there were questions about whether Clark would have enough help around her.

At times this season, the answer has been yes. During Iowa’s 84-57 win over Indiana on Jan. 13, Molly Davis, Kate Martin and Gabbie Marshall combined for 40 points. Hannah Stuelke exploded for 47 points against Penn State on Feb. 8.

More: Recap: Caitlin Clark and No. 4 Iowa women’s basketball beaten handily by No. 16 Indiana

But other times, like Thursday, the answer has been no. Martin had 19 points but was 0-of-6 from deep. Stuelke was the only other Hawkeye to score more than six points. Iowa’s other two starters on Thursday, Marshall and Davis, combined for six points.

If you accept the argument that this was just one game, then it’s also important to realize that’s all it can take for Iowa to have its March dreams crushed. 

If Clark isn’t quite herself, partly because that’s what the defense is dictating, Iowa needs an adequate safety net. And a safety net for that safety net.

The Hawkeyes, who shot 38.8% from the field and 17.9% from deep against Indiana, did not have that on Thursday.

“I think being physical,” Clark said of Indiana’s defense. “Face guarding me, denying the ball. Threw a lot of different people at me. Yeah, but just very physical. I think that was the main thing. Kinda pushed me off my spots. Got me out a little deeper than I wanted to be.”

That hits on another aspect of Thursday.

Indiana imposed itself physically. The loss of Czinano hurt Iowa in its ability to deal with that. On Thursday, Iowa started just one player listed above 6 feet tall. Indiana started three. 

Iowa can go bigger with Addison O’Grady or Sharon Goodman. O’Grady was the better of the two on Thursday, scoring six points. But neither of those two is at an ideal spot development-wise yet. Iowa’s trouble handling a dominant post player was obvious Thursday, with Mackenzie Holmes scoring 24 points.

But it isn’t all about height.

Iowa is not soft. You don’t get to 23-4 this season being soft. But on Thursday, Indiana looked like the tougher team.

More: Leistikow: Some needed context before the Caitlin vs. Pistol Pete conversations begin

Other elements can tilt the balance of the game. Like the fact that Indiana shot nearly 43% from deep. But putting an almost over-the-top emphasis on making Clark uncomfortable while doing what you can to cover holes everywhere and being physical is the foundation of a game plan to beat Iowa.

It isn’t all doom and gloom for Iowa. Even though the loss made Iowa’s path to a Big Ten regular-season title unlikely, the Hawkeyes are still very much contenders nationally. And they no doubt like their chances on a neutral court. It’s probably a good time to remind people that Iowa didn’t win the Big Ten regular-season title last season and still went on a magical run in March.

But the biggest loss Thursday wasn’t coming up short against Indiana. It’s that the recipe for beating the Hawkeyes has been served on a silver platter. Now it’s time for Bluder, Clark and the rest of the team to make the necessary adjustments.

Follow Tyler Tachman on X @Tyler_T15, contact via email at [email protected]

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