And then there were four. NFL playoff games, that is. There are eight teams left and we’ve still got these two yahoos, Jon Greenberg and Zac Jackson, trying to pick games.
GREENBERG (0-2 last week, 58-65-2 overall): You know what they say, the playoffs don’t really start until the Cleveland Browns are eliminated. So that means they usually begin on wild-card weekend, but they were delayed a week this season.
The natural order of the universe has returned and you’re free to watch playoff football on your couch, a glutton for football, food and gambling, not in that order.
I think we can all agree that last week stunk. There was only one interesting game and I can’t be alone in losing most of my bets. Some were horrific losses — like taking Cleveland and Dallas — while others just missed, like the over in the Eagles-Bucs game Sunday night.
Can we right the ship and build up the ol’ account before the Super Bowl? That’s every gambler’s goal right now.
So we have four games to focus on with nothing else to distract us. Maybe we should take PTO? No, wait, we’ve made this work.
So let’s get to it.
First game: Texans at Ravens on Saturday. Baltimore, the favorite out of the AFC, is a 9-point favorite against C.J. Stroud and Houston. You just witnessed his desecration of Cleveland’s defense. Are you on board with Houston +9? I think I am.
JACKSON (2-1 last week, 55-59 overall): Not my favorite game. The Ravens have been one of the league’s best first-half scoring and first-half point differential teams. They’re fresh, they have a true home-field advantage and they’re going against a rookie quarterback. Now, Stroud is far from a typical rookie. But last week he torched a Browns’ defense that didn’t adjust, and this week he gets maybe the league’s most multiple defense in terms of creating pressure.
If you’re thinking the Texans cover that number via backdoor, I can be sold. But I’m more inclined to think Ravens first half -6.5 or Ravens team total over 27.5 (+110).
There’s actually one pick I’m actually making in this game: Odell Beckham over 34.5 receiving yards. Why did the Ravens give Beckham all that money? For the playoffs, and for the biggest games. He only had seven targets over his last three games, but I think he’s going to be a big part of the game plan here. I like a good “rest vs. rust” debate in the bigger picture, but I think fresh legs help a lot of older players — and veteran offenses.
Looking at Saturday’s night game, Christian McCaffrey is -300 to score a touchdown. That’s an absurdly high number you rarely see in the NFL. But it’s probably one that hits.
GREENBERG: First, I think I’m going to listen to you on the over 27.5 for the Ravens team total.
But in the night game, you can get better odds by going McCaffery to score a touchdown and the Niners win. That bet is -200.
It’s funny how Saturday’s schedule worked out with two first-year starting QBs everyone is jacked up about facing off against the top seeds and best defenses in the playoffs. Just like Stroud and the Texans are to the Ravens, Jordan Love and the Packers are 9.5 point underdogs to the 49ers. Niners star Nick Bosa is already talking about making Love “uncomfortable.” The bigger factor is probably going to be the San Francisco offense wearing down Green Bay’s defense.
The 49ers won 12 games this season and only one of those was by less than 12 points, a 30-23 win over the Rams in Week 2. So, 9.5 points isn’t really that much, is it? I’m still going to buy a half-point, if necessary and take the Packers +10 for a very small amount of money just because it would be boring to just root for the favorite.
What else do you like here?
JACKSON: I find it interesting that some Packers money has pushed that down from 10. In the last 15 playoff games with a double-digit spread, the favorite is 11-4 ATS. I think that’s usually because the favored — and generally rested — team is just better. But in this case, I think you make a good point about young quarterbacks who are heating up on the other side. I don’t really have a strong feeling on either.
The Niners are just better than the rest of the NFC. They should score a whole bunch on the Packers. Is 30-21 at least a semi-likely outcome (outside of it being the implied score by the line and total)? Sure. If I was making one play on this game, I’d look at two McCaffrey touchdowns (+145) or 49ers over 29.5 (-140). I don’t hate laying that.
I like the Bills to win. It’s finally their time. So moneyline parlays with Bills and the No. 1 seeds are something to consider.
In that Bills-Chiefs game comes my play of the weekend: Dalton Kincaid anytime touchdown +250. The kid is a weapon, and Josh Allen looks for him when it’s scoring time. I also like Kincaid over 40.5 yards -110 (he’s gone well over that in three straight games), but the touchdown at that juicy price is mine.
Like most weekends, I’ll be trying not to lose all my money before Kincaid takes the field. I know most of our readers are as excited about the Friday night Akron-Kent State first half under 67 as I am.
GREENBERG: Tell Dustin Ford I said hi.
I think I’ll also go with over 50.5 in Packers-Niners for a small-to-medium amount. My wife and I have dinner plans that night. You think I can sell her on BW3s?
You’re going out of order here. We have to discuss the Sunday afternoon game, Buccaneers-Lions, first.
The Detroit crowd is going to be insanely amped up for this one. Imagine the reaction when they show Eminem and start playing “Lose Yourself.” But if there’s one game where I feel comfortable taking the underdog, it’s here — with the Bucs getting 6.5. As our resident Baker Mayfield expert, do you trust him in this game? Am I crazy for liking the Bucs?
JACKSON: You’re not crazy. You’re a big loser according to the loyal commenters, but you’re not crazy.
I almost picked the Eagles in our draft last week, but ultimately thought they were toast. I didn’t follow that by taking the Bucs, but at least I didn’t lose. What does last week mean for this week? Will Mayfield be throwing to wide open guys again?
I think both teams will run pass-heavy offenses, and I think both will score. I’ll go with over 48.5 in that game. The Lions game last week should have soared over. Mayfield has good weapons, and both teams have middle of the road (at best) pass defenses. It’s the one game we can be sure that weather won’t be a factor, and I think we’ll see big plays. I feel good about seeing points.
GREENBERG: I guess they didn’t like my Dallas -7 pick last week? There’s a reason I don’t wade into the comments. My self-esteem is low enough after I look at my story metrics 10 times a day. Then I look at my bank account and waistline and it really gets bad.
Speaking of bad vibes, I wonder how many Eagles before the game asked if they had to actually leave Florida to go back and pack up or if they could just start their offseason immediately afterward? They were cooked and they knew it.
I took the Lions -3 last week, so I was a little annoyed with their 1-point win. Maybe the over 48.5 is the play. I’ll roll with you on that one and take the Bucs +6.5 as well.
As for the Bills-Chiefs game, I think I’m going with the underdogs on the road, Kansas City +2.5. I don’t trust Matt Nagy — the joke in Chicago is if you wanted to know what Patrick Mahomes would’ve looked like in a Bears uniform, it’s this season with Kansas City — but I do trust Mahomes and Andy Reid. I’ll take your Dalton Kincaid TD bet, as well.
Let’s have some fun.
Is there an over-under for shots of minor Detroit celebrities (not including Eminem, who is still a star in my book) and that one old-timer who has been a season-ticket holder for 60-something years?
(Top photo: Ryan Kang/Getty Images)
