A lot can happen in the span of a week. Case in point: When I last published this column last Wednesday, Nick Saban was still the coach at Alabama.
Five other FBS jobs (and counting) have since opened because of his retirement. Yet this is my first chance to answer your questions about any of it.
(Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.)
Who is the “new” Nick Saban? Almost two decades of unparalleled success at one school, year-in, year-out national championship contenders, the gold standard by which all other programs are measured. Kirby Smart has had the success but not the longevity (yet). Is it Dabo Swinney? Little ole Dabo seems to have both. Is it blasphemy to put Dabo on the same level as Saban? — Todd B., Greenville, S.C.
Saban and Dabo were on the same level four years ago. I listed them 1a and 1b in my annual Top 25 coaches rankings as recently as 2020, shortly after they’d split four national titles and four head-to-head CFP meetings from 2015-18. But Dabo has already suffered the type of dropoff that Saban somehow avoided for 16 straight seasons. Clemson went 4-4 in the ACC last season. Saban did not lose even three SEC games in his last 13 seasons. Dabo may well coach Clemson for another 20 years, but it sure looks like his mini-dynasty in the back half of the 2010s was an isolated moment in time.
Smart is clearly in the best position, and not just because he effectively built an Alabama clone in Athens. Since 2017, he has won two national championships and played for a third; won at least 11 games in all but the shortened 2020 season; gone 8-0 in SEC play in each of the last three seasons; and signed the No. 1 or 2 class in the country in five of the last seven years.
Oh, and he’s only 48. He could theoretically keep winning 85 percent of his games for even longer than Saban did.
But he might not ever match or eclipse Saban’s seven national titles simply because it’s going to be harder to win them consistently in the new system. Georgia will have to beat one, possibly two more opponents than it did before. Who knows whether Saban himself would have won that many if some of his teams had to advance through another round or two. He came along at an opportune moment, largely past the days when one regular-season loss could knock you out on the spot (as it did for many of Bobby Bowden’s best teams) but before a new system consisting of more games against teams that can beat you.
Beyond that, Saban’s retirement and Harbaugh’s possible NFL exit have me realizing what a void we now have in the profession. The shine has come off Lincoln Riley and Ryan Day; Brian Kelly is off to an underwhelming start at LSU; DeBoer, Norvell and Lanning are promising but still with short track records; Sarkisian still needs to show he’s not a one-hit wonder. But someone is going to rise up and become Smart’s new SEC adversary. If it’s not DeBoer himself, somebody else (Kelly? Lane Kiffin? Eli Drinkwitz?) will take his place.
To ask a question posed by one of your colleagues: if a team like Arizona or Duke can (and probably will!) have its cupboard raided if/when it achieves some level of success, what is the point in following that team as a fan? I love college football — and I love my team – but it’s disheartening to know that any success is temporary because a blueblood will always be waiting in the wings to snatch up our coach and/or best players. — Chris V.
There’s always been an unofficial hierarchy to college jobs, and there’s always been a subset of fan bases that have had to accept their unwanted status as a perpetual springboard school. Look at Cincinnati. Going back to 2006, all but one of its coaches (Tommy Tuberville) have left for a “bigger” job — Mark Dantonio (to Michigan State), Brian Kelly (to Notre Dame), Butch Jones (to Tennessee) and Luke Fickell (to Wisconsin).
What’s changing is the line of demarcation. It’s no longer Power 5 vs. Group of 5. It’s SEC/Big Ten vs. everyone else. Heck, Kalen DeBoer has convinced two sitting Group of 5 head coaches, South Alabama’s Kane Wommack and Buffalo’s Mo Linguist, to come be assistants at Alabama.
Dick Tomey, who produced two top-10 seasons, coached at Arizona for 14 years (1987-2000). Jedd Fisch stayed for three. Had his tenure occurred in this day and age, I find it hard to believe Tomey would have remained in place even half that long. Someone with greater resources would have come calling. David Cutcliffe stayed at Duke for 14 years (2008-21), at one point turning down longtime former employer Tennessee. Duke got a little bit lucky in that Cutcliffe was farther along in his career and not looking to climb the ladder. Though, were it today, if Tennessee really wanted him, it could have offered to more than double his salary.
Perhaps that’s why this particular coaching carousel has felt sadder to me than usual, seeing so many fans of ostensibly “major” programs — Washington (Kalen DeBoer), Arizona (Fisch), Oregon State (Jonathan Smith), Duke (Mike Elko) — see their coaches stolen away so soon. And to Ari’s point, those moves get compounded today by the inevitable exodus of transfers.
But “what is the point” of still following one of these teams seems unduly fatalistic. It suggests Jedd Fisch is the only coach in the sport who could have won at Arizona, and now he’s gone, when in reality, you’re always another great hire away from more success. There may be an initial dip, due to roster attrition, but by the same token, the new coach can build back faster.
Arizona already made what I consider to be a very good hire in San Jose State’s Brent Brennen. I’d put SJSU in the bottom 10 percent nationally of programs built for success. There’s scant history of success, the facilities are awful (though improving!), fan support is minimal. Yet Brennen won the Mountain West in 2020 (after which he nearly got the Arizona job the first time) and took the Spartans to bowls in three of the past four seasons.
If he can keep star QB Noah Fifita from defecting, the Wildcats can pick up where they left off.
Stew, based on what we know TODAY, who wins the Big Ten next year? — Lance M., Traverse City, Mich.
Ohio State would have to be the betting favorite. In addition to landing quarterback Will Howard (Kansas State) and RB Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss), nearly all their underclass draft prospects save for Marvin Harrison Jr. opted last week to return for one more year — RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Emeka Egbuka, defensive ends J.T. Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams and corner Denzel Burke. It would appear the program is sick of losing to Michigan, dipped deep into that NIL bag and is trying to build much the same go-for-broke national championship squad as the Wolverines boasted this past season.
However, I wouldn’t necessarily proclaim Howard to be a sure thing. Big Ten newcomer Oregon got much more of one with Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma) and just added Texas A&M transfer Evan Stewart, who has a chance to be one of the best receivers in the country. The Ducks, you’ll recall, played two down-to-the wire games against Washington last season. A few plays in the other direction and they, rather than the Huskies, might have reached the natty. So at the very least I’d consider them the 1B to Ohio State’s 1A.
Finally, I’m not counting out Michigan yet. At least as of this writing, Jim Harbaugh is still the coach. As expected, most of the starting lineup announced their NFL departures, most notably quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, center Zak Zinter and a whole bunch of defensive guys. But the cupboard is not bare. Running back Donovan Edwards staying was big news, and a lot of key guys from last year’s defense (some of them technically not starters) are back in DTs Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, edge rushers Derrick Moore and Josaiah Stewart, linebacker Ernest Hausmann, corner Will Johnson and safeties Rod Moore and Makari Paige.
There’s a bit of a black hole at QB, though, unless or until Michigan gets a portal guy to come in and compete with the young guys.
Can the media finally stop mentioning Dan Lanning as a top candidate for every notable coaching job now that he’s turned down Bama? What else could he possibly do to further demonstrate his loyalty to Oregon? He has no reason to leave given the elite resources UO has in place (including now being in the Big Ten) that potentially allow him to build a dynasty in Eugene. — Blake H.
Love the enthusiasm, Blake. I’m a big believer in Lanning as well, though perhaps we should wait for him to win one (1) championship before entertaining notions of a dynasty.
I’m not surprised his name came up for Alabama given the Saban/Kirby connections, but it never seemed realistic. Precisely because Oregon has been burned so many times before, it gave Lanning an unusually school-friendly contract that includes a $20 million buyout on his part should he leave for another job at any time through 2028. While Alabama probably could have found $20 million if it needed to, it’s not like Lanning was the runaway favorite for the job. DeBoer inspires as much or more confidence without the hefty price tag.
I know all coaches insist they have no intention of leaving right up until they leave, but Lanning’s repeated proclamations have always seemed uniquely sincere and definitive. He knows he’s got everything a coach could ask for in Eugene. But he also knows no one is coming along to write a $20 million check just for the rights to pay him another $9 million a year to coach somewhere else.
Louisville is top 5 in every transfer team ranking I can find. Should I dream of the playoff all summer? — Will F.
Absolutely you should.
Ole Miss, Oregon and others have been getting more attention for their transfer hauls, but just like last year, Jeff Brohm has added a lot of key pieces. QB Jack Plummer played well in the Cardinals’ 10-win season, but Texas Tech’s Tyler Shough, if he finally stays healthy, could be an upgrade. Running back Jawhar Jordan will be tough to replace, but Toledo’s Peny Boone, the nation’s 11th-ranked rusher last season (1,400 yards), and Miami’s Donald Chaney Jr. could be a nice 1-2 punch. And Brohm got a bunch of offensive linemen, tight ends and experienced defenders as well.
But just as notably, there could be a window of opportunity in the ACC. Florida State’s 13-1 team saw its starting lineup largely wiped out. The Noles won’t implode, but they will be hard-pressed to repeat in the conference. I had Clemson as my highest ACC team in my early Top 25, as the Tigers will have a nice veteran core on both sides, but it’s still a program that’s been backsliding for the past few seasons. Teams like NC State, Virginia Tech and North Carolina could certainly be factors, but none of them go in with a decided edge over the Cardinals.
It’s a new world. Louisville doesn’t need to go 13-0 (and keep its QB healthy for the whole season) to reach the Playoff. It could go 9-3, but if it wins the ACC, it’s going to the show.
Sweet dreams.
I am admittedly a college football-obsessed fan, so I cannot comprehend the difference in audience between college and NFL games. The three CFP games averaged barely half the audience (23.6 million) of the Cowboys-Packers wild card game (40 million). Is this large metro areas with NFL teams watching their own games, or is it just a mismatch between East Coast viewership of the NFL and a lack of a compelling college team in that area? — Josh D.
You don’t have to drill down into ratings demographics. It’s pretty simple: The NFL is infinitely more popular in this country than college football, which itself is more popular than any other major sport.
Note that college football predates professional football and remained more popular until roughly the 1960s. The biggest reason it flipped was how differently the two enterprises treated the advent of television. Simply put, the NCAA fought against it; the NFL widely embraced it. The NCAA restricted how many games could be shown and how many appearances a school could make for several decades until the Supreme Court eventually struck that limitation down. But the NFL had far surpassed it by then.
I personally enjoy watching college far more than the NFL, but I acknowledge the NFL is a more fan-friendly TV product. The broadcast windows are tighter. Most of the game times are announced before the season, not six to 12 days ahead of time. The star players don’t come and go every two years. It’s easier to gamble on, and fantasy football helps drive season-long engagement. And the playoff system is a lot more straightforward. (Although frankly I still struggle with the reseeding thing).
Not to beat a dead horse, but I firmly believe the 12-team Playoff will help grow the sport’s popularity, as the postseason will become inclusive of the entire country. And as I’ve said in the past, the Big Ten/SEC consolidation, while disaffecting to a whole lot of people, is going to create a lot more blockbuster matchups between big brands that appeal to much the same casual audience that helps juice NFL numbers.
But they’re never going to be close to equal. The NFL planted that flag many generations ago at this point. Which is why the 12-team CFP dates are being squeezed in between NFL playoff rounds rather than daring to go up against them.
I’m not too thrilled with the fan fundraising for NIL. Is this what we should expect for the future of college football — constant fundraising and political-style advertising? After each game, win or lose, an email why you should donate, having to tick a box online to opt out of the extra NIL surcharge, etc?. Are we now going to start considering our return on investment as part of being a fan? — Bret, Edinburgh, UK
Obnoxious, but inevitable. The NCAA fought so vehemently against NIL up until the last possible moment it no longer could that it allowed these outside entities – collectives – to fill a role the schools should have all along. And yes, they are increasingly operating like Super PACs. Instead of, “Donate today or the other guy might win the election,” it’s “donate today, or the other guy might steal our players.”
Still-newish NCAA president Charlie Baker, to his credit, recognizes the ridiculousness of this model. Last month, he proposed allowing schools to directly enter into NIL deals with their athletes. One could see a world in which the school buys an athlete’s NIL rights upon signing, then turns around and uses their images in promotions or enters into partnerships with outside sponsors.
The schools already do massive fundraising drives as it is to pay for coaches’ salaries, facility upgrades, etc. NIL payments could come from the same bucket. You’d still get solicitation emails, I’m sure, but from the same people who already send you relentless emails about buying season tickets and merchandise.
And while Baker and the NCAA would absolutely not want the athletes to become employees, that, too, would ease some of the pressure currently surrounding NIL. Schools could enter into contracts that specify the player’s salary, and perhaps more importantly, set a defined period for the deal. No longer would it be every player is a free agent all year, every year.
This era we’re living in now — you can already tell it’s fleeting and unsustainable. Something else is coming.
TBD whether it’s an improvement.
(Top photo: Todd Kirkland / Getty Images)
