Over the past few years, the space industry has gone through a phase of hyper growth followed by belt-tightening. There are exceptions, depending on which company or subsector you’re talking about, but that’s been the overall trend, with the last two years really defined by companies trying to keep moving and survive the culling.
Last year saw some “green shoots” for the space sector – such as the milestones and gains by the likes of SpaceX, Amazon, Rocket Lab, Redwire and Virgin Galactic. But for many others, 2023 was the most challenging year for space businesses in recent memory (just ask satellite insurers).
2024 is underway, already with a flurry of news both good and bad. This year, the space business items I’m looking to see center around turning aspirations into achievements – here are my top four:
4. The D2D opportunity shapes up
Already we’ve seen updates from Iridium and SpaceX on their respective direct-to-device satellite programs, and I expect to see more from others soon. AST SpaceMobile is supposed to launch its first five commercial satellites this quarter, Lynk Global is taking the SPAC route to raise money and deploy more satellites, and we’ll hopefully hear more on how work on Globalstar’s new satellites for Apple is progressing. But the size of the D2D market remains an open question. Or, as one industry expert told me in 2022, “I don’t think we know how this is going to be paid for.” I think 2024 is the year we find out.
3. Blue Origin gets rolling
Is this the year Jeff Bezos’ sleeping giant awakens? We’re off to a strong start thanks to the flight debut of Blue Origin’s BE-4 engines on the successful first launch of ULA’s Vulcan rocket. Dave Limp’s a month in as CEO of Blue Origin and is proudly showing off some New Glenn hardware. I’m looking for that trend to accelerate in 2024. I’d take increased production of BE-4 engines, progress toward a New Glenn launch, regular flying for New Shepard, or the results of some space station demonstrations, to name a few.
2. Starship deploys satellites
The third time should be the charm for Starship, if only to show that the monster rocket can begin flying payloads. Starship’s third flight is tentatively slated for February. While a potential refueling demonstration or surviving reentry would be welcome bonuses, I want to see Starship carrying satellites to orbit this year.
1. An American lander on the moon
One down, but more are coming. Astrobotic was the first this year to have a go at landing on the moon and, despite the mission going awry in the early stages, it shouldn’t be the last attempt in 2024. Next month should see Intuitive Machines’ IM-1 mission launch, and Firefly’s first Blue Ghost flight is targeted for the third quarter. I used to wonder if the general public would get excited about low-cost lunar cargo missions but the outpouring of interest and support for Astrobotic’s ill-fated mission shows that a successful moon landing by an American company could be the industry’s biggest story of the year.
What are your predictions for space events in 2024? Let me know!
