NFL Week 17 picks against the spread: Derek Carr, Saints silence the critics

The Bills, Packers, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets and Seahawks all won games last weekend in the final minute of regulation or overtime. It’s only the second time that has happened since 1970. The first time? Week 10.

Man, picking these games against the spread seems like an impossible feat. But stretch out the tightrope as I am here for you once again, brave and resilient.

We had our second straight losing week but we are still above water. There are even more new quarterbacks, and only eight teams are officially eliminated from playoff contention — yeah, 24 teams still have Super Bowl hopes/prayers.

And no, we’re not afraid. We’re backing Derek Carr, our not-so-cute Dolphins again and the 2-13 Panthers covering for a third straight week. Here’s all of them:

Last week: 7-9 against the spread, 2-3 on best bets.

Season record: 126-119-6 ATS, 44-35-1 on best bets.

All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.

Joe Flacco leads the NFL with 326.8 passing yards per game since making his Cleveland debut — and 10.6 percent of his completions have traveled at least 20 yards downfield, the third-highest rate in the NFL over the past four weeks. And Amari Cooper deserves some credit — his four receptions (two touchdowns) for 148 yards had less than a 33 percent completion probability, the most such yards since people started tracking that stuff seven years ago. Everyone is jumping on the bandwagon as this spread went over 7, but they should be OK because of the Browns defense this week. The Jets have allowed their QBs to be pressured at the second-highest percentage (45.1) of dropbacks on the road.

The pick: Browns 

This a classic hangover spot, as the Lions just won their first division title since the internet was invented. And the Cowboys will be desperate after losing to the Dolphins. It sounds good … but that point spread is way too big. And the Lions are leaning into their run game. They lead the NFL with 229 rushing yards after contact during their two-game win streak. The Cowboys rank 27th in yards after contact allowed per rush during their two-game losing streak. Plus, the Cowboys like to shoot themselves in the foot. They lead the NFL with 47 defensive penalties this season, including 37 that resulted in a first down for the opponent (second most in the NFL). I don’t know if the Lions win their sixth consecutive prime-time game, but they won’t lose by more than 6.

The pick: Lions 

Well, the MVP race is finally over after Lamar Jackson and the Ravens stomped Brock Purdy and the 49ers on Christmas. … Right? Wait … you don’t think that just like every other proclaimed leader in the clubhouse this season, Jackson could let it slip away by losing against the soft Dolphins? The Ravens have a tough defense, but are coming off a very physical game on a short week. The Dolphins had a nice late drive to beat the Cowboys and Tua Tagovailoa has to prove it again. From a clean pocket, Tagovailoa is a top-three QB in passer rating, EPA per dropback and yards per attempt this season. When pressured, Tagovailoa ranks 20th or worse in all three categories. Give us the Dolphins flexing some muscle and Raheem Mostert (21) making a heroic bid for Priest Holmes’ record (27) for most TDs by an undrafted player.

The pick: Dolphins 

The Bills lost to the Patriots earlier in the season and now face a red-hot Bailey Zappe. Zappe posted the highest completion percentage over expectation of any QB in Week 16, plus-16 percent, with success in the intermediate range (6.6 average intended air yards, 6.2 average completed air yards). That didn’t sound very convincing, huh? The Bills were playing great football before taking a nap against the Chargers last week, and they still won that one. Their defense will frustrate Zappe, while Josh Allen will get back to running wild and beating the Patriots (they’ve won six of the last seven matchups). Allen was 4-of-4 for 46 yards on third down in the second half of last week’s win over the Chargers and has thrived in close games the last two months. Not that this one will be close.

The pick: Bills 

The Falcons’ running game rose from the dead last week when they surprised me and the Colts. And Taylor Heinicke outplayed Gardner Minshew, which I guess is not as crazy as I thought it would be. What’s nuts is Atlanta scoring points on a season-high 70 percent of its drives (7-of-10). The Falcons had entered Week 16 having scored on 31.3 percent of their drives, 25th in the NFL. So, big, big, big regression week coming. The Bears rank third in the NFL in opponent yards per rush (3.6), and the key is they hit opposing ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage on the second-highest percentage of rushes in the NFL (49.9 percent). The cherry on top is that the Falcons have not done well against rushing quarterbacks, like Justin Fields, and have even been slipping against running backs of late.

The pick: Bears 

The Titans have lost back-to-back games — including against Case Keenum and the Texans — by a combined 6 points since their wild comeback against the Dolphins in Week 14. They can overcome a bad secondary and keep things close before running out of gas — the seven one-score losses this season are the most the Titans have had in any season since moving to Tennessee in 1997. Well, good news for weak-hearted Titans fans: This one won’t be close, with C.J. Stroud coming back from a concussion. With Stroud off the field, the Texans have averaged 4.1 yards per play and 5.0 yards per pass attempt (both 32nd). With Stroud on the field, Houston has averaged 5.6 yards per play (seventh) and 8.2 yards per pass attempt (third).

The pick: Texans 

The Raiders had two more defensive touchdowns last week in the win over the Chiefs, and their five defensive scores in 2023 equal their total from the previous four seasons combined. But two straight impressive wins on national television by Antonio Pierce’s group have not won over the betting public, as this number has not budged from 3.5. Maybe it’s because the Raiders have back-to-back 10 a.m. bodyclock road games on a short week. The Colts have lost two of three since winning four straight, as their pass rush has fallen off as it ranks 22nd in sack rate (5.6 percent) and 25th in sacks (5) since Week 14. (During the Colts’ four-game win streak, it led the NFL with 21 sacks.) Aidan O’Connell will complete a pass in the last three quarters this week. Raiders keep rolling.

The pick: Raiders 

Trevor Lawrence gets injured. Lawrence plays hurt. The Jaguars lose. Rinse and repeat. They have lost four straight games since Lawrence went down with that initial ankle sprain. The last three weeks, the Jaguars rank 31st in points per drive over the last three weeks (1.2) and they have scored points on an NFL-low 18.9 percent of their drives over that span. The Panthers defense gets good pressure, and just in case, their offense can now score points in garbage time. Bryce Young has averaged the second-most air yards per attempt across the NFL since Week 13 (10.8) with 33.9 percent of his passes traveling 15-plus yards downfield (second in the NFL). From Weeks 1 to 12, Young ranked 31st in air yards per attempt (6.5) and 15.7 percent of his passes traveled 15-plus yards (30th).

The pick: Panthers 

Are the Rams weatherproof? Because that would be the only reason to fade them here. The Giants love to blitz and have trouble with quick, slot-type receivers. Matthew Stafford loves when teams blitz him and he has two of the best quick-twitch game wreckers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Stafford has had five straight games with a 100-plus passer rating, his longest streak with the Rams and the longest active streak in the NFL. But give me the home team and the points, as Tyrod Taylor will make enough plays to keep it close enough for at least a backdoor cover. Taylor’s sack rate (8.5 percent) is half that of the benched Tommy DeVito and Daniel Jones (16.5 combined) despite being pressured on a higher percentage of his dropbacks.

The pick: Giants 

The Eagles couldn’t pull away from the Giants last week as they went 2-for-5 in the red zone. That continues a recent trend, as they rank 26th in red-zone TD percentage over their past four games (46.2 percent), with Jalen Hurts being pressured on 61.9 percent of his red-zone dropbacks (29th in the NFL). But … what’s that flashing red thing delivering presents a week late? It’s the Cardinals, whose defense has allowed 400-plus yards in four of the past five games. Kyler Murray’s comebacks fall short because he is not playing on a level field — the Cardinals’ average starting field position has been 5.9 yards worse than their opponent this season, the worst differential in the NFL.

The pick: Eagles 

Baker Mayfield would be getting all the love right now if Flacco wasn’t 10 years older. Mayfield is 3-0 with eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the last three games. Tampa Bay’s defense has been opportunistic as well, and the plus-10 turnover margin is tied for the best in the league. The Saints will be eliminated with a loss, and this would be a perfect time for a good defense to stand up and for Carr to silence some of his critics. The Buccaneers pass defense is not that good, and Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed could have big days. Carr has three TDs on throws 20-plus yards downfield over the past two weeks, most in the NFL over that span and he’s had big days at Tampa Bay before.

The pick: Saints 

Forget Brock Purdy’s four interceptions last week for a second. The 49ers defense posted their second-lowest pressure rate of the season (28.2 percent of dropbacks) Monday despite blitzing Ravens QB Lamar Jackson at a higher rate than any other game this year (38.5 percent of dropbacks). They entered Week 16 having pressured opposing passers on an NFL-best 60.4 percent of blitzed dropbacks this season. The Commanders are going with Jacoby Brissett at QB after an inspiring (yes, it was) comeback loss to the Jets and face old friend Chase Young and an angry 49ers defense. Back to Purdy. Washington’s pass defense is terrible and he should have no problem getting the 49ers out to a big lead. But not big enough. Brissett gets a backdoor cover for the second straight week.

The pick: Commanders 

Kenny Pickett is trying to come back and play this week, and maybe one of his teammates trips him by accident. Or drops a weight on his foot. Because Mason Rudolph was dealing last week. He outplayed the great Jake Browning and his 124.0 passer rating was the best by a Steelers starter since Ben Roethlisberger in Week 5 of 2020. The Steelers defense was able to shut down the Bengals, but unlike them, the Seahawks have three healthy, really talented receivers. The Seahawks rallied to beat the Titans 20-17 last week on a go-ahead touchdown with 57 seconds to play, the second straight week Seattle won a game with a go-ahead score in the final minute. Don’t mess with magic. Or start thinking the Steelers are good again.

The pick: Seahawks 

The Broncos are sitting QB Russell Wilson for Jarrett Stidham for the team’s final two games. Though Wilson’s contract plays a role, Wilson has struggled in close games. He ranks 26th in yards per attempt (6.3) and 27th in percentage of attempts resulting in a first down (28.1 percent) with the score within eight points. Stidham can sling it and will have to play well, as the Chargers are solid against the run. One week after getting their coach Brandon Staley fired in a blowout, the Chargers lost on a late field goal. It was L.A.’s fourth loss this season in a game it led in the fourth quarter, tied for most with the Packers, Falcons, Vikings and Bills. Can they get over the hump? Not with Easton Stick and a washed-up Austin Ekeler on the road.

The pick: Broncos 

The Chiefs held the Raiders to 6 points on offense and lost decisively on Christmas. Their mishandling of their receiver position was baffling and is finally getting to a frustrated Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes averaged a season-low 3.6 air yards per attempt, the second fewest in any start of his career (2.3 in 2019) and just 26.5 percent of his throws were to targets at or beyond the sticks. That’s not going to just fix itself against the Bengals. Meanwhile, maybe the great Browning only struggles against the zone-heavy, light-blitzing Steelers defense. Against man coverage, Browning has a 137.3 passer rating and no interceptions (10.6 YPA). Take the points.

The pick: Bengals 

What’s gotten into Nick Mullens? The once cautious undrafted backup has gone YOLO in his third stint as a starter in the NFL and is just winging it whenever he gets a chance. He gave the Vikings a chance to beat the Lions last week, and then he took it away with four interceptions. And now he’s without T.J. Hockenson, whose 19 first-down-converting catches on third down leads all tight ends and is tied for eighth most among all players. Jordan Love, meanwhile, is attempting to become the first Packers quarterback to lead the team to the postseason in his first full year as a starter since 1950. Take that Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. And Love will do it, thanks to a finally healthy Aaron Jones. Jones is coming off his first 100-yard game since Week 16 of last season, and 100 of his 127 yards came after contact.

The pick: Packers 

Best bets: Bears over the Falcons, Bills blow out the Patriots, Eagles fly higher than Cardinals, Seahawks beat the Steelers and one underdog — the Packers get the win in Minnesota over the Vikings.

Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): Lions over Cowboys. Dan Campbell is 16-4 against the spread when an underdog of 4.5 points or more. They cover and win.

— TruMedia research courtesy of NFL editor Jason Starrett. 

(Top photo of Derek Carr: Perry Knotts / Getty Images)

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