Mike Clay, ESPN Senior WriterDec 22, 2023, 09:06 AM ET
Close
Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
Member of Pro Football Writers of America
Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings
Week 16 is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That’s why we’re bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend’s scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I’m interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
Chase Brown under 2.5 receptions (-135): Brown’s playing time has increased over the last two weeks and he has had exactly three receptions in both of those games. The rookie has run a total of 10 pass routes during the span and has caught all six of his targets. Both his route-to-target ratio and catch rate are unsustainable and, while it’s possible his playing time increases, Joe Mixon remains the feature back. In fact, Brown fell from a 30% snap share in Week 14 to just 17% in Week 15. Pittsburgh, for their part, has surrendered the seventh-fewest RB receptions.
Buffalo Bills -12.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California Saturday 8 p.m. ET
Money Line: Buffalo Bills (-800); Los Angeles Chargers (+550) Total: 43.5; Opened: 42.5 FPI favorite: Bills by 12 (81.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bills 28, Chargers 18
Dalton Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (+120): Kincaid wasn’t fully healthy last week, which explains why he played on a season-low 38% of snaps and was held without a catch on two targets. Also, Buffalo called only 18 passing plays (compared to 47 runs) in the 31-10 win over Dallas. Kincaid entered the game with at least five receptions in his prior seven contests, averaging 7.9 targets per game during that span. The Chargers have allowed the seventh-most TE receptions this season, with nine different tight ends reaching four catches against them.
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Indianapolis Colts (+125); Atlanta Falcons (-145) Total: 44.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Falcons by 0.3 (51% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Colts -1.5
Projected Score: Colts 21, Falcons 19
Tyler Allgeier over 8.5 rushing attempts (-105): Allgeier soaked up 14 carries last week and has now carried the ball at least nine times in 10 out of 14 games this season (including five of his last six). He’s averaging 11.9 attempts per game and hasn’t fallen below seven since Week 2 of last season. That high floor is hardly a surprise in the NFL’s pass-heaviest offense (game-script adjusted). The Colts have faced 362 RB carries this season (third most) and 20 backs have reached nine rushing attempts against them in 14 games.
Julian Blackmon over 3.5 solos (+120): Blackmon is averaging 4.6 solo tackles per game. He has reached four in 11 out of 14 games. He’s an every-down safety (a 99% snap share) who gets work all over the formation, including in the box, corner and free safety.
Green Bay Packers -5 @ Carolina Panthers Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Green Bay Packers (-230); Carolina Panthers (+195) Total: 37.5; Opened: 36.5 FPI favorite: Packers by 6.7 (69.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Packers 23, Panthers 17
Bryce Young over 27.5 passing attempts (-105): Young has attempted at least 28 passes in 12 of his 13 games. The lone exception was last week when he threw just 24 passes in windy/rainy conditions in Charlotte. Young is otherwise averaging 34.5 attempts per game and has hit this mark regularly, even with Carolina turning to a run-heavy approach over the last month. Green Bay has faced the sixth-fewest passing attempts this season, yet opponents are averaging 31.6 of them per game, with 12 out of 14 teams reaching 28 passing attempts.
Jerome Ford under 41.5 rushing yards (-110): Ford is trending down, averaging 10.0 carries and 37.2 rushing yards per game during his last five outings. He’s reached 42 rushing yards only twice during that span and in just seven out of 14 games this season. Houston’s run defense is tops in the league, having allowed a league-low 3.2 yards per RB carry. Houston has allowed a grand total of 94 yards on 46 carries to backs over the last two weeks — and that includes holding Derrick Henry and the Titans to a mere 39 yards on 25 attempts last week.
Detroit Lions -3 @ Minnesota Vikings U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Detroit Lions (-155); Minnesota Vikings (+135) Total: 47.5; Opened: 46.5 FPI favorite: Lions by 3.6 (60.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Lions 24, Vikings 21
Brian Branch under 3.5 solos (-110): This line is not reflective of Branch’s reduced role, as he had played on at least 93% of Detroit’s snaps in five straight games prior to being demoted to just 53% and 73% over the last two weeks. In fact, he could play even less if C.J. Gardner-Johnson returns. Branch has reached four solo tackles only three times in 12 games. Two of those games were way back in Weeks 3-4 and the other was a Week 11 game in which he had four solos while playing on 100% of snaps. Branch has a total of only two solos over the last two games.
Washington Commanders @ New York Jets -3 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Washington Commanders (+140); New York Jets (-165) Total: 37.5; Opened: 38.5 FPI favorite: Jets by 2.1 (56.4% to win outright)
Projected Score: Jets 16, Commanders 16
Kamren Curl over 3.5 solos (-167) and over 1.5 assists (-167): Curl had one solo tackle against the Rams last week, but the safety has reached four in 12 out of 14 games this season. The Commanders safety has also reached two assists in 12 out of 14 games, although the exceptions both came recently (Weeks 12-13). In total, Curl is averaging 7.3 total, 4.6 solo and 2.6 assisted tackles per game. Curl has yet to miss a single defensive snap this season.
Derrick Henry anytime TD (+115): Henry is coming off an ugly 20-touch, 10-yard performance against an elite Houston run defense, but the veteran back still remains a good bet to find the end zone. Henry has 10 touchdowns in 14 games and scored exactly two times in each of the three games leading into Week 15. Henry ranks sixth in RB touches and fifth in touchdowns this season. He has a much easier matchup this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed 19 rushing touchdowns (fourth most), including 14 RB rushing scores (second most) this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Money Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (+135); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-155) Total: 40.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Jaguars by 0.1 (50.2% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Jaguars -1.5
Projected Score: Buccaneers 24, Jaguars 21
Rachaad White under 74.5 rushing yards (-115): White has rushed for 84-plus yards in four straight games, which has vaulted his rushing yardage prop to a season-high 74.5. That’s a number he failed to reach in every one of his first 10 games this season. This week, White will face a Jaguars defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest RB rushing yards. Backs are averaging 3.8 yards per carry against them (seventh lowest) and only two of them (Bijan Robinson and Christian McCaffrey) reached 75 yards.
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears -4 Soldier Field, Chicago Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money Line: Arizona Cardinals (+180); Chicago Bears (-215) Total: 43.5; Opened: 44.5 FPI favorite: Bears by 4.1 (62.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: Bears 24, Cardinals 20
Kyler Murray under 1.5 passing TDs (-180): Murray has thrown four TD passes in his five games since returning from injury and that includes exactly one passing TD in four straight contests. Chicago allowed 10 passing scores over the first four games, but the Bears have been better since, surrendering just 15 TD passes over its last 10 outings. Five of those 10 teams were held below two passing scores.
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins -1 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Raheem Mostert anytime TD (-118): Mostert has scored 20 touchdowns in 14 games this season. He’s found the end zone at least once in 11 different games, including four straight (with seven total scores during the span). Mostert has re-established himself as Miami’s lead back, having handled 36 of the team’s 54 RB carries over the last two weeks. Dallas has a great defense, but backs have scored 10 times against them — and that includes James Cook’s 221-yard, 3-TD effort last week.
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos -7 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Sunday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: New England Patriots (+270); Denver Broncos (-330) Total: 34.5; Opened: 36.5 FPI favorite: Broncos by 5.3 (65.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Broncos 20, Patriots 15
Lil’Jordan Humphrey under 1.5 receptions (-165): Humphrey caught three out of four targets last week, but prior to that, the journeyman had failed to eclipse one target or one reception in his prior 11 games. In fact, Humphrey has played on at least one snap in 39 career games and has had more than one catch only seven times. Humphrey played ahead of Marvin Mims Jr. as Denver’s No. 3 WR last week, but even if he sustains a substantive offensive role, multiple receptions appear to be a longshot.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs -10 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri Monday 1 p.m. ET
Money Line: Las Vegas Raiders (+425); Kansas City Chiefs (-550) Total: 40.5; Opened: 43.5 FPI favorite: Chiefs by 12.4 (82.7% to win outright)
Projected Score: Chiefs 22, Raiders 19
Isiah Pacheco under 67.5 rushing yards (-114): Pacheco has averaged 64.9 rushing yards per game this season, though the second-year back has reached 68 in only four out of 12 games. Pacheco averaged 17.2 carries per game in those four “exception games,” which is a number he may not reach in his first game back from injury. Pacheco produced 55 yards on 15 carries when these teams met in Week 12. Only one back has reached 68 rushing yards against the Raiders over their last five games.
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -13.5 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia Monday 4:30 p.m. ET
Money Line: New York Giants (+550); Philadelphia Eagles (-800) Total: 42.5; Opened: 43.5 FPI favorite: Eagles by 15.2 (87.6% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Eagles -10.5
Projected Score: Eagles 26, Giants 17
Saquon Barkley over 2.5 receptions (-160): Barkley has had at least three receptions in eight out of 11 games this season. His targets are down a bit since Tommy DeVito has taken over at quarterback, but he’s still reached three catches in four out of seven games since Week 8. This week, Barkley will face an Eagles defense that has faced a league-high 39.6 passing attempts per game. Twelve different backs have accrued three-plus catches against the Eagles in 14 games.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers -5 Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money Line: Baltimore Ravens (+190); San Francisco 49ers (-225) Total: 47.5; Opened: 45.5 FPI favorite: 49ers by 4.8 (64.2% to win outright)
Projected Score: 49ers 28, Ravens 25
Gus Edwards anytime TD (+170): Keaton Mitchell (ACL) is done for the season, which means additional work for Edwards. The veteran back has played five full games with both him and Justice Hill combining to handle a majority of the backfield work. In those outings, Edwards handled 71 carries and four targets, which helped to earn him five touchdowns. Despite Baltimore’s backfield-by-committee, Edwards has 11 scores in 14 games and ranks third in RB carries inside the opponent’s 5-yard line (15). The 49ers defense is terrific, but backs have eight scores against this unit — and that includes the two scores by Arizona’s backs last week.
Cincinnati Bengals -3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills -12.5 @ Los Angeles Chargers
Indianapolis Colts @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Green Bay Packers -5 @ Carolina Panthers
Cleveland Browns -3 @ Houston Texans
Detroit Lions -3 @ Minnesota Vikings
Washington Commanders @ New York Jets -3
Seattle Seahawks -3 @ Tennessee Titans
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears -4
Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins -1
New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos -7
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs -10
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles -13.5
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers -5
