As the 2024 presidential race draws closer to primaries and caucuses getting underway, former President
Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over his competitors, while former United States Ambassador and
South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley moves to second place, tied with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis,
according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of registered voters released today.
Among Republican and Republican leaning voters, 67 percent support Trump, 11 percent support
DeSantis, 11 percent support Haley, 4 percent support entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and 3 percent support
former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie.
This is both Trump’s and Haley’s highest levels of support since the Quinnipiac University Poll started
national surveys on the 2024 GOP presidential primary race in February 2023 and this is DeSantis’ lowest score
of the year. In February, he received 36 percent support.
“DeSantis continues his yearlong slide. Haley gains momentum. The battle for second place heats up, but
it’s unlikely it will send a holiday chill through MAGA world,”
said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
Among Republican and Republican leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Republican
presidential primary, 50 percent say they might change their candidate choice depending on what happens leading
up to the Republican primary, while 48 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the Republican
nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Republican primary.
DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY
President Biden receives 75 percent support among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters, author
Marianne Williamson receives 13 percent support, and U.S. Representative from Minnesota Dean Phillips
receives 5 percent support.
Among Democratic and Democratic leaning voters who support a candidate in the 2024 Democratic
presidential primary, a majority (57 percent) say they might change their candidate choice depending on what
happens leading up to the Democratic primary, while 40 percent say they are firmly set on their choice for the
Democratic nomination no matter what happens leading up to the Democratic primary.
GENERAL ELECTION
In a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump
are in a virtual dead heat, with 47 percent supporting Biden and 46 percent supporting Trump.
Democrats (94 – 5 percent) support Biden, while Republicans (93 – 4 percent) support Trump. Among
independents, 46 percent support Biden and 40 percent support Trump.
In a three-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup adding independent candidate Robert F.
Kennedy, Jr., Biden receives 38 percent support, Trump receives 36 percent support, and Kennedy receives 22
percent support.
In a five-person hypothetical 2024 general election matchup adding independent candidate Cornel West
and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump receives 38 percent support, Biden receives 36 percent support,
Kennedy receives 16 percent support, and West and Stein each receive 3 percent support.
BIDEN
Voters give President Biden a negative 38 – 58 percent job approval rating, largely unchanged from a
November 15 Quinnipiac University poll when he received a negative 37 – 59 percent job approval rating.
Voters were asked about Biden’s handling of…
- the response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: 45 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove, with 7 percent not offering an opinion;
- the economy: 39 percent approve, 56 percent disapprove, with 5 percent not offering an opinion;
- foreign policy: 35 percent approve, 59 percent disapprove, with 6 percent not offering an opinion;
- the response to the war between Israel and Hamas: 34 percent approve, 54 percent disapprove, with 11 percent not offering an opinion;
- the situation at the Mexican border: 27 percent approve, 63 percent disapprove, with 11 percent not offering an opinion.
BIDEN IMPEACHMENT INQUIRY
Voters are divided on the House of Representatives beginning a formal impeachment inquiry to determine
whether or not to bring impeachment charges against President Biden, as 46 percent approve and 49 percent
disapprove.
Democrats (85 – 10 percent) disapprove, while Republicans (80 – 17 percent) approve. Independents are
split, with 48 percent approving and 47 percent disapproving.
HUNTER BIDEN
Seven in 10 voters (70 percent) say they are following news about the Justice Department’s investigations
into President Biden’s son Hunter Biden either very closely (28 percent) or somewhat closely (42 percent), while
29 percent say they are following it not too closely.
More than 4 in 10 voters (44 percent) say the Justice Department’s treatment of Hunter Biden has been
not tough enough, while 28 percent say it has been fair, and 15 percent say it has been too tough.
TRUMP
A majority of voters (53 percent) say they are concerned by a recent comment former President Donald
Trump made saying he wants to be a dictator for one day if he wins the 2024 presidential election, while 44
percent say they are not concerned.
Democrats (90 – 9 percent) and independents (57 – 40 percent) say they are concerned, while Republicans
(84 – 13 percent) say they are not concerned.
ISRAEL – HAMAS WAR
More than two months after the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack on Israel, voters are split on whether
the United States should send more military aid to Israel for their efforts in the war with Hamas, with 45 percent
supporting it and 46 percent opposing it.
This is a drop from majority support (54 – 39 percent) for the United States sending more military aid to
Israel in Quinnipiac University’s November 16 poll.
In today’s poll, there are wide gaps by political party, age, and race.
Republicans (65 – 28 percent) support the United States sending more military aid to Israel, while
Democrats (58 – 36 percent) oppose it. Among independents, 41 percent support it and 48 percent oppose it.
Voters 65 years of age and over (63 – 28 percent) and voters ages 50 – 64 years old (55 – 36 percent)
support the United States sending more military aid to Israel, while voters 18 – 34 years old (72 – 21 percent) and
voters 35 – 49 years old (53 – 38 percent) oppose it.
White voters (51 – 40 percent) support the United States sending more military aid to Israel, while
Hispanic voters (60 – 36 percent) and Black voters (56 – 35 percent) oppose it.
A majority of voters (69 percent) think supporting Israel is in the national interest of the United States,
while 23 percent think it is not in the national interest of the United States.
When it comes to the relationship between the United States and Israel, 29 percent of voters think the U.S.
is too supportive of Israel, while 17 percent think the U.S. is not supportive enough of Israel, and 45 percent think
the U.S. support of Israel is about right.
Voters are split on the way Israel is responding to the October 7th Hamas terrorist attack, with 43 percent
approving and 42 percent disapproving. This compares to a November 16 poll when 46 percent approved and 40
percent disapproved of Israel’s response.
Voters were asked whether their sympathies lie more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians based
on what they know about the situation in the Middle East. Forty-nine percent of voters say the Israelis, while 24
percent say the Palestinians. This compares to mid-November when 54 percent said the Israelis and 24 percent
said the Palestinians.
Republicans (77 – 6 percent) and independents (48 – 24 percent) say their sympathies lie more with the
Israelis, while Democrats (40 – 30 percent) say their sympathies lie more with the Palestinians.
“There are shifting sentiments as the human losses mount and the Biden administration leans on Israel to
lessen the impact on Palestinian civilians. While voters make it clear they have a personal stake in supporting
Israel, they are less enthusiastic about fortifying its close ally’s arsenal,”
added Malloy.
UKRAINE
Voters (55 – 38 percent) support the United States sending more military aid to Ukraine for their efforts in
the war with Russia, largely unchanged from a mid-November survey.
There is a big gap by party identification.
Democrats (77 – 17 percent) and independents (51 – 42 percent) support the United States sending more
military aid to Ukraine, while Republicans (51 – 42 percent) oppose it.
A majority of voters (69 percent) think supporting Ukraine is in the national interest of the United States,
while 25 percent think it is not in the national interest of the United States.
Nearly one-third of voters (32 percent) think the United States is doing too much to help Ukraine, 25
percent think the U.S. is doing too little, and 35 percent think the U.S. is doing about the right amount to help
Ukraine.
“American voters hold firm on helping Ukraine battle Putin. But while Israel’s war effort continues to get
full throated support from the GOP, it’s clear Republican voters are losing patience with supporting Ukraine,”
added Malloy.
HOLIDAY SPENDING AND 2024
Just under half of voters (48 percent) say they plan to spend about the same amount on gifts this holiday
season compared to last year, 39 percent say they plan to spend less, and 12 percent say they plan to spend more.
As for next year, a plurality of voters (48 percent) think the nation’s economy will be better, while 39
percent think it will be worse.
More than 6 in 10 voters (62 percent) think 2024 will be better than 2023 for them personally, while 20
percent think it will be worse than 2023 for them personally.
1,647 self-identified registered voters nationwide were surveyed from December 14th – 18th with a margin
of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey included 702 Republican and Republican leaning voters with a
margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. The survey included 683 Democratic and Democratic leaning voters
with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Doug Schwartz, Ph.D. since 1994, conducts independent,
non-partisan national and state polls on politics and issues. Surveys adhere to industry best practices and are
based on random samples of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell
phones.
Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll
Email [email protected], or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
