How likely is a Bulls-Lakers trade? The latest on Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso

The Los Angeles Lakers and Chicago Bulls have been linked together for more than a month.

On Nov. 14, The Athletic reported that there was “increased openness” from the Bulls and Zach LaVine about exploring a trade with the Lakers among the projected suitors. In a follow-up piece, The Athletic reported that the Lakers have a greater interest in acquiring DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso if either player becomes available.

With the Lakers and Bulls playing Wednesday night at the United Center, Lakers beat writer Jovan Buha and Bulls beat writer Darnell Mayberry teamed up for a back-and-forth discussion on the situation.

Here’s what they’re hearing, what a package could look like and what they think will happen.

Jovan Buha: Hey Darnell, thanks for doing this. What’s the latest you’re hearing from the Chicago side on a potential trade with the Lakers?

Darnell Mayberry: All signs are pointing to these teams eventually finding common ground on a deal that works for both sides. The fit as trade partners was apparent before. But as the season has progressed, it seems imperative that they come together on a trade.

From the Bulls’ side, the biggest hurdle is the asking price for LaVine or, as you mentioned, DeRozan or Caruso. LaVine would be their first choice to move. He has a massive contract that will be impossible for him to live up to as long as the Bulls are losing, and with LaVine, the Bulls have been stuck in the mud for the better part of seven seasons.

Now that it’s public knowledge LaVine and the franchise are open to ending their partnership, Chicago doesn’t appear to have a ton of leverage. LaVine’s contract alone — he’s in the second season of a five-year, $215 million deal — will be difficult for most teams to absorb and is expected to limit the Bulls’ available trade offers.

The problem with that is Chicago’s front office has quickly developed a reputation for overvaluing their own in trade discussions. It could be the biggest hurdle to a Bulls-Lakers blockbuster. To this point, Chicago has demanded top value for suboptimal parts. But after three failed seasons, time has run out on the Bulls’ belief in continuity. A trade is imminent. It’s just a matter of how sweet of a deal the Lakers can offer.

A lot of fans like Austin Reaves in Chicago, Jovan. How much do the Lakers want LaVine?

Buha: Not much has changed on the Lakers’ front. They are remaining patient and using the next few weeks to determine the holes in their roster and the magnitude of upgrades they’ll need.

My understanding is that the Lakers continue to prefer DeRozan and/or Caruso given their contracts, as previously reported. The Lakers have preferred year-to-year flexibility over long-term salaries since their championship run in 2020, especially after the catastrophic Russell Westbrook trade. DeRozan is on a $28 million expiring deal. Caruso is making $9.5 million this season and $9.9 million next season, both team-friendly figures given he’s one of the league’s best defensive guards. LaVine, meanwhile, represents a significant commitment for a player who’s been a borderline All-Star at best.

Of course, LaVine is a Klutch Sports client, and that factor can’t be overlooked. The partnership between the Lakers and Klutch, the powerhouse agency headed by LeBron James’ childhood friend Rich Paul, has been mutually beneficial over the past five years. The Lakers have understandably had an affinity for Klutch players during James’ tenure and currently feature four on their roster (James, Anthony Davis, Cam Reddish, Jarred Vanderbilt. James has also long been a fan of LaVine’s, as well as DeRozan’s, for what it’s worth.

For LaVine specifically, I think the Lakers would consider a D’Angelo Russell-centric deal, but I don’t think they’d throw in much more than a combination of salary filler (Rui Hachimura and/or Gabe Vincent), a young prospect (Max Christie or Jalen Hood-Schifino) and a protected pick (2029 or 2030 first rounder). The Lakers would fight to keep Hachimura and Christie, to be clear. But I see that offer on the high end of what they’d be willing to give up.

Even so, I don’t think they’d want to bid against themselves and would need another suitor to up their offer to more than a minimum package. They feel like they would be doing the Bulls a favor by clearing LaVine’s salary off their books and kickstarting a rebuild if the Bulls ultimately go in that direction.

Los Angeles isn’t interested in trading Austin Reaves for LaVine, as I reported. After a rocky start by his standards, which included a move to the bench, Reaves has recaptured his production from last season, scoring 20 or more points in five of the past seven games (including the In-Season Tournament championship).

I could see a similar offer or framework for a DeRozan deal, or a DeRozan-Caruso combo package as well, adjusting the players involved to match salary. The Lakers only have one movable first-round pick.

What do you think Chicago would want from LA? Does something like what I laid out sound realistic?

Mayberry: The lack of interest league-wide in LaVine is shaping up as a rare example of a team stomaching a big contract extension, only to be unable to trade said contract down the line. Most would agree that LaVine earned his maximum allowable contract and that it was smart business for the Bulls to retain him two summers ago. But that came with an understanding that a trade would always be available if things didn’t work out. If the Lakers don’t covet LaVine, the Bulls could be left to figure it out with their frustrated star.

Meanwhile, the Bulls’ strong recent play has demonstrated to the team’s management (and anyone paying attention) how much better Chicago functions without LaVine. The Bulls are 6-3 in their past nine games, own a plus-3.1 net rating and have outscored opponents by 31 points over that span. Whispers are growing louder about whether the Bulls even need LaVine.

As for your potential framework for a deal, the Bulls won’t love it, but it’s the kind they might have to accept. Teams aren’t tripping over one another in a race to trade for LaVine. DeRozan, who continues to perform at a high level, is turning 35 next summer and seeks a significant extension. Again, the Bulls can’t be choosy. Their options are to retool now and collect some assets, even if imperfect, while they can, or stick with the status quo and allow valuable players to walk for nothing — while the team continues to be far from contention.

That dilemma should force the Bulls to be flexible on the players they’ll receive in a trade, though Coby White’s stellar play might make the Bulls think twice about bringing in Russell. A more important issue is the far-out draft pick. To this point, the Bulls haven’t been interested in long-term draft capital (or short-term, for that matter). The Bulls’ front office hasn’t shown much appetite for long-term planning. It’s a win-now management team. The Lakers’ lack of immediate draft capital could be the dealbreaker. But the Bulls don’t have many better options.

With a potential trade of this magnitude, do you envision that the two teams would require a third or even fourth team to satisfy all parties? I get the sense we’ll see some complexity for this deal to get completed.

Buha: We agree. I think that’s where this is likely headed if it happens: a three- or even four-team deal.

Of course, the more teams involved, the more moving pieces and the greater the challenge in satisfying all parties. But I could see Russell being rerouted to a third team that covets a starting backcourt upgrade in exchange for more immediate draft capital. Though Russell has been in a slump recently, he’s still averaging 15.8 points and 6.3 assists to go along with 39.3 percent from 3-point range. His shooting and playmaking can help an up-and-coming offense that needs a boost.

I don’t see a clear team that fits the bill currently, but there is plenty of time — roughly six weeks — between now and the Feb. 8 trade deadline. Teams will suffer injuries and skids and drop in the standings. There are more buyers than sellers right now, but at least a couple more sellers are going to emerge.

Where are the Bulls at with Caruso? I’m not sure NBA Twitter could handle a Caruso-Reaves backcourt, but I’m sure the Lakers would love to reunite with their former guard. It’s been reported the asking price is as high as multiple first-round picks (to your point about the Bulls asking for the moon and overvaluing their players). I’m not quite sure they’ll get that — and certainly not from the Lakers. But are they open to trading him? And could this turn into a fire sale if they trade LaVine first?

Mayberry: The Bulls love everything about Caruso, and rightfully so. He’s not untouchable. But he’s a critically important connector piece for a team hell-bent on winning now.

Trading Caruso would fly in the face of everything the Bulls say they are trying to build as an organization. He’s the type of player who helps a franchise establish and maintain its culture. The fire sale should start in Chicago the moment Caruso, not LaVine, is traded.

The Bulls’ asking price for Caruso sounds exorbitant, but that says all you need to know about what he means to the franchise. There aren’t many Alex Carusos walking around. Add to that the team-friendly contract you mentioned, and Caruso easily ranks as the Bulls’ best acquisition since their new management team arrived in 2020. Suddenly, it becomes easier to understand their infatuation and why the Bulls will be reluctant to let him go.

Two counterarguments worth mentioning are Caruso’s injury history and the Bulls’ mediocrity. Caruso has appeared in only 130 of 193 possible games with the Bulls. It makes sense for the Bulls to get what they can at some point if they’re steadily losing and Caruso can’t stay healthy.

Buha: The counterargument underscores the fundamental issue with a Lakers-Bulls deal: The Bulls don’t have a clear direction yet and the Lakers have relatively limited assets to entice Chicago’s brass to pull the trigger. Whether the Bulls want a win-now package to restart their season or a rebuilding package to help tear it down, the Lakers can be outbid by a rival suitor.

There’s also the question of whether the Lakers need LaVine. The league’s 24th-ranked offense could use LaVine’s offensive dynamism, but a LaVine-Reaves backcourt would pose many of the same issues that have prevented the Lakers from using the Russell-Reaves backcourt together more. The Lakers’ identity is built on size and defense, and they need players who fit into that mold.

Ultimately, I think a deal is less likely to happen than the recent buzz suggests. Unless the Lakers are the only suitor for LaVine, there will be better offers on the table. I also don’t think the Lakers will meet the Bulls’ sky-high price for Caruso — if the Bulls even entertain trading him. DeRozan is the most realistic target, but the LaVine domino likely must fall first before the Bulls would consider moving DeRozan. And I think the haggling over Reaves, pick protections and young assets could prevent the two sides from finding common ground.

I’m skeptical that a deal gets done between these two franchises. I think LaVine ends up staying put or going elsewhere.

(Top photo: Gary A. Vasquez / USA Today)