COVID cases in the US have risen 50 percent in four weeks

On Monday, Biobot Analytics updated their SARS-CoV-2 wastewater dataset, showing that transmission of the virus that causes COVID-19 has risen 50 percent in the last four weeks and is quickly approaching the late-summer peak of the last wave that drove up hospitalizations and deaths across the United States.

The current surge began in early November, with the Midwest now showing a massive acceleration phase. While the Northeast and the West are seeing considerable rise in rates of transmission, the trends in the South have plateaued at a substantial level for now.

This is clearly the beginning of the second wave since the Biden administration unscientifically ended the COVID-19 public health emergency (PHE) declaration last May, with well over 10,000 Americans succumbing to COVID-19 and tens of thousands more hospitalized or suffering from Long COVID.

On the week ending September 9, 20,678 people were admitted to hospitals for COVID-19. Between August 26 through the end of October, weekly deaths have consistently been above 1,000, with over 5,000 people perishing in the month of October alone. As a lagging indicator, the upward trends in hospitalizations that we are seeing again means that fatalities will climb as well in the weeks ahead.

Although much of the media has remained utterly silent on the issue of COVID, they all eagerly reported on the record number of Thanksgiving travelers last week. According to the TSA, their agents screened 2.2 million passengers on Friday, another 2.6 million on Saturday, and a record breaking 2.9 million on Sunday. In all, close to 30 million or more were screened from November 16-28, while an additional 55 million Americans drove to visit family or friends, meaning that more than a quarter of the US population traveled long distances to see family last week.

Undoubtedly, concentrations of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater will surge even more in the weeks ahead, as the impacts of this record travel on viral transmission are fully logged.

Dr. Michael Hoerger of Tulane University, who has been modeling the spread of COVID-19 using the Biobot data, noted on Monday that levels of wastewater now correlate with approximately 886,000 daily infections, or an average of more than 6 million infections in just one week.

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In Dr. Hoerger’s forecast, the figure for daily infections could reach 1.5 million during the Christmas break, when the next massive wave of travelers will take to the air or roads. He warns that in classrooms, lecture halls, restaurants, and other crowded indoor spaces, the chance of encountering someone actively infected with COVID-19 is essentially a flip of the coin.

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