Nebraska’s margin for error still too small for big success

This is the Big Ten’s best city and most … industrial … media experience on gameday. The walk, the in-stadium ramps out of the 1970s, the leery-eyed security in yellow coats.

Friday night in Madison is a treat. Saturday’s always a lesson in noise and architectural neglect.

Nebraska has not figured out how to beat Wisconsin here.

I was skeptical the Huskers would win — especially if UW running back Braelon Allen played. He did, and his 22 carries for 62 yards might have seemed innocuous until you realized this is the Big Ten West, a division of physical pain, stylistic misery and inches wherever they can be found. Wisconsin found those inches Saturday night.

Nebraska hit big plays of 55 and 58 yards, but could not find the inches, especially when it came to tackling Badger quarterback Tanner Mordecai.

Who knew that guy would haunt Husker dreams? But he shook free of one certain sack when Javin Wright had him in the third quarter. And Mordecai’s QB draw in overtime — as Wright ran past him as part of a six-man blitz — didn’t convert a first down, but it was a crucial play, perhaps even the defining one, of overtime.

And coach Matt Rhule had no interest in chalking up the loss to a shift in momentum after Nebraska got stopped on fourth down early in the second quarter. And he may be baffled by the online criticism surrounding his end-of-regulation clock management, which might have been a little conservative but preserved NU’s potential chance of winning in overtime.

Rhule has built his program and culture on one side of the ball — a beat-up group that fell a play or two short.

“We’re a team that prides itself on our defense,” Rhule said. “The defense prides itself on tackling … a lot of guys had opportunities to make some of those plays. We talk about momentum, we talk a lot about the offense and all those things. To me, the defense, we could use a sack/fumble (play).”

At the end of the day, Rhule said, the game comes down to a tackle, a block, making a play.

“I didn’t think there was any lack of passion or emotion out there,” Rhule said.

Certainly no lack after the game. Nebraska players seemed gutted, searching. What more, during this three-game losing streak, could they have done?

Play better at quarterback before Saturday night, for starters. Reporters will have to better dig into why Chubba Purdy has been languishing as the third-team quarterback when, in his one drive against Maryland and a full game against Wisconsin, he appeared considerably far ahead of where Jeff Sims has been as a Husker. (The Georgia Tech Sims was better, for he made some mistakes, but not this many.) Purdy’s groin situation may be significant, but he was willing to risk it in the last two weeks. Given the opponent and the stakes, Purdy arguably turned in the best quarterbacking performance of the year.

As for the rest? Nebraska will have to either find the inches the way Iowa does — on special teams, especially punt and punt return — or improve its margin for error through development and recruiting.

Because of roster turnover, inexperience and injuries, the Huskers walk a thin wire over a small net below. Rhule wants to be aggressive with trick plays on offense and blitzes on defense. He’s trying to teach his players and coaches to get out on that wire and walk it with confidence and precision. Scott Frost wanted to teach that, too, incidentally, even if his teams fell short and lacked the discipline Rhule has already instilled.

But the execution of an aggressive approach will hit and miss.

So NU needs a bigger net or a wider wire.

The Husker volleyball team, with all its talent and toughness, walks a highway two feet off the ground. John Cook’s team can take all kinds of chances in serving, for example. And whatever risk looks like the wrestling and bowling teams, those coaches can take them and have some wiggle room.

Football? Not quite. Same is true of both basketball teams and Husker baseball. High-profile teams that need all the inches they can get.

Nebraska doesn’t come back to this city — and aging temple of football — until 2027. Perhaps by then, the wire is thicker, the net is larger, and a couple missed tackles don’t lead to a third-straight loss.

Quarterback Chubba Purdy: He didn’t overthink it in NU’s passing game, getting the ball when he had an early read and scrambling when he didn’t. Purdy has good wheels, and will be a contender for the Husker starting job if he’s healthy.

Running back Emmett Johnson: Saves his toughest runs for the fourth quarter. He’s had good ones several weeks in a row now. NU could perhaps give him a few more totes, but his rotation with Anthony Grant ensures both will be fresh.

Receiver Billy Kemp: The way he runs after a short screen, you wonder what might have been in an offense that had more consistent downfield threats.

Safety Marques Buford: An impressive 10 tackles and a big league hit to boot. Nebraska’s creative use of the four-game rule allows a Big Ten starter to impact the team in November while playing fresh. Neat deal.

Safety Phalen Sanford: Speaking of big hits — Sanford landed a haymaker in the fourth quarter on third down, which led to one of NU’s two fourth-down stops. If Sanford doesn’t make that pop, Wisconsin perhaps puts the game away earlier than overtime.

Eleanor Dale: The Nebraska forward — one of the great Husker soccer players in school history — helped the Huskers advance to the Elite Eight with a 4-0 win over UC Irvine. She also set a program record Sunday with her 28th goal this season. NU’s been pretty good the last several seasons. This year, Nebraska is great — and Dale, who could be national player of the year, deserves a ton of credit.

Jordan Hooper: The Alliance graduate becomes the fourth Husker to get her jersey retired. Few could deserve that honor more than Hooper, the 2014 Big Ten Player of the Year who had universal approval among coaches, players and media during her time at NU.

Nebraska volleyball: To clinch a Big Ten regular season title outright before the last week? Pretty, pretty good stuff.

Wisconsin quarterback Tanner Mordecai: Purdy was good but, for the third straight week, the opposing quarterback was a little bit better.

Wisconsin receiver Will Pauling: Eight grabs, 79 yards, and a nice chess piece going forward in the Badger offense.

1-4: Nebraska’s record in one-score games this season. The Huskers lost 13-10 to Minnesota and Maryland, 20-17 to Michigan State and 24-17 on Saturday night. Last season, the Huskers finished 2-4 with wins over Rutgers (14-13) and Iowa (24-17). Saturday night’s game reminded me of the 2022 Iowa game — quick start, then a comeback — with one key difference: Nebraska forced four turnovers at Iowa. None last night. NU built its 24-0 lead — almost insurmountable — last year on those takeaways.

129th: Funky stat coming, but telling: Heading into Saturday, Nebraska ranks 129th in the nation when it comes to points per drive on a “middle” starting field position. BCF Toys defines this as a drive that starts between 60 and 80 yards from the opponents’ goal-line. That is, between the 20 and 40. NU scored an average 1.05 points per drive from that field position before the Huskers scored two touchdowns from 75 and 76 yards away. On NU’s next six drives from that field position Saturday night, it didn’t score a point. The Huskers ran 28 plays for 81 yards on those six drives, which included a massive loss on an attempted reverse.

13: Takeaways this year. Not enough, and defensive coordinator Tony White would tell reporters that. The Huskers have posted 31 sacks — tied for 19th nationally — and 73 tackles for loss, which is tied for 26th. Even with one game left, those are high-water figures for a Husker defense since 2013 and 2014, respectively. But the takeaways appear to be the lowest full-season mark since 2017. It’s an area where Nebraska will aim to improve. Takeaways aren’t definitive — Colorado has 20, and one of the nation’s worst defense — but they’re sure helpful. Penn State has won nine games in part because of 23 takeaways.

33.3%: Nebraska’s completion rate in overtime games since the 2014 win over Iowa. Interceptions ended the Huskers’ overtime hopes against 2015 Miami, 2018 Northwestern, 2021 Michigan State and now 2023 Wisconsin. The Huskers haven’t gained a first down in nine years in overtime, so they obviously haven’t hit an explosive pass, but the longest completion in that time was an eight-yard pass from Tanner Lee to Tyler Hoppes during the 31-24 loss to Northwestern in 2017. The Huskers haven’t been remotely good running the ball in overtime recently — eight carries for -13 yards, including sacks in several games.

88th: Nebraska’s current NCAA rank in net punting. The Huskers average 37.71 net yards per punt, with the average taking a hit Saturday night after Brian Buschini’s tough night. In his second year since transferring from Montana, Buschini has struggled with consistency in 2022 and 2023, especially when he’s having to flip the field. Buschini has stated his intention to return, and it’s likely he will. But NU is a stunning seven yards behind Iowa, which leads the nation in net punting.

Each week on my Facebook page, I ask fans for their takes on the previous game. Selected and edited responses follow:

Mike Kirk: “Purdy was OK, no turnovers in regulation. Wisconsin defensive adjustments shut down NU offense. NU defense did not adjust to stop Wisconsin QB draws, which hurt us. NU punting has regressed poor showing Saturday night.”

Tom George: “Why does Emmett Johnson not get carries, when throughout the week, Rhule and Satterfield are saying he needs to get more touches?”

John Fair: “When you haven’t won in Madison since 1966, you don’t play for the tie. Different situation from last week. Last week, a FG gives you the lead, this week, it only ties the game. Ignored the old adage of ‘play for the tie at home, and play for the win on the road.'”

John Gerdes: “Guys played with heart and fought to the end. You can’t coach better than your players talent. Considering the entirety of the game, it was a great showing with more to come. Remember where we were. We have already had a better season than the last 6 with promise for the future.”

Iowa has won nine games the Iowa Way — stingy defense, amazing punting, and just enough offense.

The Hawkeyes clinched the Big Ten West with a 15-13 win over Illinois, which controlled much of the game until Iowa needed plays late, and found them.

Since posting just 20 yards rushing at Penn State and 61 vs. Michigan State, the Hawkeyes have had five rushing games over the century mark.

Take out the sacks — Deacon Hill has lost 100 yards in 32 carries this year — and the run game is decent.

A Thanksgiving holiday with a different kind of Nebraska football speculation.

It’s not about the head coach, but the quarterback and the offense.