In most years, the first five or so picks of any mock draft have a reasonably high hit rate.
The No. 1 overall pick is usually the free space on the mock draft bingo board. Not so this year. As late as Tuesday, plenty of intrigue remained about which direction the Carolina Panthers will go when they are on the clock Thursday night to start the 2023 NFL draft. Betting odds have shifted dramatically regarding the first pick. At sportsbook Points Bet USA, Kentucky quarterback Will Levis’ odds of being the No. 1 overall pick dropped from 50 to 1 on Monday all the way down to 10 to 1 by Tuesday morning.
With the NFL draft one week away, the Buffalo Bills’ general manager could go in a variety of directions with the team’s first two picks, including slot receiver, middle linebacker and tight end. Also, the latest developments on Damar Hamlin’s potential return.
Does that mean Levis will be the No. 1 pick? Not necessarily, but it is, nonetheless, quite interesting. It also provides a glimpse of just how unpredictable this year’s first round promises to be. The general consensus is that this year’s class contains a smaller number of players with first-round grades than most other drafts. Given that, it would not be a surprise to see a lot of trade action, especially in the bottom half of the first round as teams try to secure those players they do have first-round grades on.
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Of course, that makes mock drafts – none of which are particularly accurate to begin with – even more of a difficult task. We love a challenge, though, so here is The Buffalo News’ final look at how Thursday’s first round might play out.
1. Carolina Panthers. Bryce Young, QB, Alabama. Would the Panthers really take Levis after it seemed as though they had settled on Young? Nobody knows. The Carolina front office has done an excellent job masking its intentions. We’ll stick with the perceived “safer” option in Young.
2. Indianapolis Colts (projected trade with Houston). C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State. The Colts are desperate to get off the quarterback carousel, so moving up two spots to do so makes sense. Stroud reportedly did not fare well on the S2 cognition test that has become popular with NFL talent evaluators, but his on-field performance – which is what really matters – should still see him drafted in the top five.
3. Arizona Cardinals. Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech. Arizona is also another trade-down candidate, especially because the Cardinals have holes all over what might be the worst roster in the NFL, but it might be tough to find a dance partner. If they stay put, let’s give them the edge rusher with the perceived highest ceiling.
4. Houston Texans (projected trade with Indianapolis). Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama. This would be the ideal scenario for Houston – move down to acquire more picks and still come away with perhaps the best prospect in the class.
5. Tennessee Titans (projected trade with Seattle). Will Levis, QB, Kentucky. He’s not a top-two pick in this mock draft, but Levis still makes it into the top five, with another projected trade that allows the Titans to move up. The Seahawks love to trade down, and the Titans need to start planning for what their offense will look like without Ryan Tannehill. Levis can sit behind Tannehill for a year.
6. Detroit Lions. Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia. The most scrutinized player in this year’s draft, Carter has plenty of red flags. Still, it feels as though Lions coach Dan Campbell would embrace the challenge of reaching a player who, when committed, might be the most talented player in the class.
The oddsmakers at BetOnline.ag have listed the odds for which position each team will select…
7. Las Vegas Raiders. Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon. The acquisition of quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo might not totally remove the Raiders from the quarterback market, but if they are interested in one, they’ve done a good job keeping it quiet. Gonzalez is one of the consensus top-two cornerbacks in what is thought to be a strong year at the position.
8. Atlanta Falcons. Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas. Adding him to an offense with top-10 picks in tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London would give young quarterback Desmond Ridder some real weapons.
9. Chicago Bears. Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State. With the pick acquired from Carolina after trading down from the No. 1 spot, the Bears get some protection for quarterback Justin Fields.
10. Philadelphia Eagles. Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia. Getting younger along the defensive line figures to be a priority for the Eagles in the first round. Smith is on the lighter side (235 pounds), but has potential to be a big disruptor coming off the edge.
11. Seattle Seahawks (projected trade with Tennessee). Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida. The Seahawks stop Richardson’s slide just outside the top 10. Seattle is committed to Geno Smith for the 2023 season, but can get out of his contract pretty easily after the year. That buys the inexperienced Richardson some time to learn the pro game.
Here is a look at the Bills’ needs in the NFL draft by position with a ranking from 1 to 10. One means lowest priority; 10 means highest priority.
12. Houston Texans. Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois. The other consensus top-two cornerback, Witherspoon should be an early starter. Texans fans will surely be wondering if skipping out on the top four quarterbacks was the right decision by general manager Nick Caserio.
13. Green Bay Packers. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State. In a pick acquired from the New York Jets as part of the trade that sent Aaron Rodgers away, the Packers get a weapon for their new starting quarterback, Jordan Love. Green Bay finally choosing a receiver in the first round just days after they traded away Rodgers would be hilarious.
14. New England Patriots. Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah. Find someone who loves you the way Bill Belichick loves tight ends.
15. New York Jets. Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern. The Jets paid a big price for potentially one or two years from Rodgers, so they might as well protect him while he’s there.
16. Washington Commanders. Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland. The Commanders stay local in adding some help for their secondary.
The Buffalo News ran a simulation to get a better sense of who might be available to Beane when his turn comes up in each round. Here is that projection for the Bills, with a look at the top-ranked players available at the time the pick was made, along with the reasoning behind it.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers. Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee. Cornerback and wide receiver could also be considerations here, but it feels as though Wright is going to get drafted earlier than most mocks are projecting him.
18. Detroit Lions. Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame. The Lions traded away T.J. Hockenson during the 2022 season, and this year’s draft is a good place to find a replacement.
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia. The Bucs moved on from longtime left tackle Dononvan Smith this offseason, meaning there is an immediate opening in the starting lineup.
20. Seattle Seahawks. Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa. Nicknamed “Hercules” by his college teammates, Van Ness is an impressive athlete who could blossom with more playing time.
21. Los Angeles Chargers. Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State. This feels like the part of the draft that will test the idea that NFL evaluators aren’t as high on the wide receiver class as fans are.
The lower part of the first round is an active spot for trading. Last year five trades were made on draft night between the 25th and 32nd picks.
22. Baltimore Ravens. Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU. Signing Odell Beckham Jr. was a nice start, but there is still more work to be done for the Ravens at wide receiver.
23. Minnesota Vikings. Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College. Longtime slot receiver Adam Thielen moved on this offseason, and Flowers would be a nice replacement as a running mate for No. 1 receiver Justin Jefferson.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars. Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson. Murphy is emblematic of this draft class as a whole. Some mocks have him going in the top 10, but it’s not impossible to see him falling to this point, either.
25. New York Giants. Emmanuel Forbes, CB, Mississippi State. Forbes set a Football Bowl Subdivision record with six interceptions returned for touchdowns during his college career.
26. Dallas Cowboys. Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt. Kancey would give the Cowboys a nice interior pass rush.
Their Maryland roots is an obvious connection between Addison and Diggs. Their outstanding route-running ability is another.
27. Buffalo Bills. Jordan Addison, WR, Southern California. The only real knock on Addison is he’s thin (173 pounds), but the Bills believe in their strength and conditioning department. Addison produced at a high level for both Pitt, where he started his college career, and last season for the Trojans. He has the versatility to play both outside and in the slot, and would immediately join Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in the Bills’ top three receivers. The fit is clean – the only question is, will Addison last on the board until the Bills pick?
28. Cincinnati Bengals. Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia. The Bengals are good enough to gamble a bit here, betting that Washington’s elite physical skills will outweigh his pedestrian production at talent-rich Georgia.
29. New Orleans Saints. Bryan Bresee, DT, Clemson. He had injury issues and dealt with the tragic death of his 15-year-old sister, Ella, last year due to brain cancer. When he was on the field, though, Bresee made a big impact in his 26 college games.
30. Houston Texans (projected trade with Philadelphia). Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee. The Eagles move down and out of the first round, while Houston moves up from No. 33 overall in the second round to get their quarterback. In doing so, they also get the fifth-year option on Hooker’s rookie contract.
31. Kansas City Chiefs. Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State. The Chiefs moved on from Frank Clark this offseason, so beefing up their pass rush is a good idea with the final pick of the first round.
