I’ve been doing this for 20 years, and it’s always difficult. But this is by far the toughest set of rankings I’ve ever released because of the uncertainty surrounding just about everyone’s roster.
A record number of players will be testing the NBA Draft process, the transfer portal is currently insane, and so many guys are debating whether to take advantage of the extra season of eligibility that was granted because of COVID-19.
I’ll continue to update this list often as we get more and more info in about who is coming back, who isn’t and what’s happening in the transfer portal.
1. Marquette | Shaka Smart brings back everyone of note from a team that won the Big East regular-season and tournament titles. He has one of the nation’s best point guards in Tyler Kolek, as well as fellow starters Kam Jones (15.1 ppg in 2022-23), Olivier-Maxence Prosper (12.5 ppg), Oso Ighodaro (11.4 ppg) and Stevie Mitchell (7.1 ppg).
2. Duke | The Blue Devils will lose Dariq Whitehead and are also expected to lose Kyle Filipowski and Dereck Lively, but they could have a backcourt of Tyrese Proctor and Jeremy Roach (if Roach returns). Veteran big man Ryan Young returns, and the Blue Devils bring in a talented freshman class with five players ranked in the top 40. Look for multi-dimensional freshman forward TJ Power to make an immediate impact. Also look for Jon Scheyer to go to the portal to add another veteran big man.
3. Michigan State | Tom Izzo and the Spartans could be loaded if Tyson Walker and Malik Hall opt to return for another year. Izzo brings back AJ Hoggard, Jaden Akins, Jaxon Kohler and Mady Sissoko, and a talented freshman class led by skilled forward Xavier Booker and point guard Jeremy Fears.
4. FAU | Dusty May and the Owls are expected to return just about everyone except for sixth man Michael Forrest from a team that went to the Final Four. Johnell Davis (13.8 ppg), Alijah Martin (13.4 ppg), Bryan Greenlee (7.3 ppg), Nick Boyd (8.9 ppg) and Vladislav Goldin (10.2 ppg) are all expected to be back in the fold. FAU is a preseason lock for the top 10 as long as all these guys stay true to their word.
5. Purdue | Obviously, the big question is whether Zach Edey returns or turns pro. The two freshman guards in Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer now have a year under their belt. The Boilermakers also bring back Mason Gillis, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Brandon Newman, Caleb Furst and Ethan Morton. Look for Matt Painter to add a combo or point guard to take some pressure off Smith.
6. Creighton | Greg McDermott hopes to return the core of last year’s team. If he does, this is a top-10 program. However, there are questions surrounding whether Baylor Scheierman, Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander and Arthur Kaluma come back. Scheierman, Kalkbrenner and Alexander are a flip of the coin while I’d expect Kaluma to move on. But Creighton has point guard Ryan Nembhard back and as long as a couple of those guys return, this team should be in the mix for a Big East title.
7. UConn | The Huskies are expected to lose Jordan Hawkins, and Adama Sanogo and Andre Jackson could both leave as well. Alex Karaban will be back, while Donovan Clingan should return and get extended minutes. The Huskies bring in an intriguing freshman class with Stephon Castle. UConn also has momentum in hitting the transfer portal to help reload.
8. Houston | Kelvin Sampson and the Cougars will lose a lot — like Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker to the NBA Draft, and Tramon Mark to the transfer portal. But Houston should go in with Jamal Shead, Emanuel Sharp, talented wing Terrance Arceneaux and big men J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis.
9. Kansas | Bill Self will have to reload again after losing Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson, but this is Kansas and as long as Self is on the sidelines, the Jayhawks will be a top-10 team. Dajuan Harris is back along with KJ Adams, and Kansas has a freshman class coming in led by talented point guard Elmarko Jackson. Look for KU to hit the portal hard.
10. Kentucky | Don’t be surprised if Oscar Tshiebwe comes back for another go-around. The ‘Cats bring in the No. 1 class in the country — led by long and athletic big man Aaron Bradshaw, scoring wing Justin Edwards and guards Robert Dillingham, DJ Wagner and Reed Sheppard. But youth hasn’t won lately, especially in the NCAA tourney.
11. Miami | In John Ruiz — I mean Jim Larranaga — I trust. The ‘Canes could lose key pieces from a team that went to the Final Four but they have NIL and momentum, and should return Nijel Pack, Norchad Omier and Wooga Poplar.
12. UCLA | I’m betting on Mick Cronin. The key will be whether Amari Bailey and Jaylen Clark both come back. If Cronin has those two and Adem Bona up front, then UCLA should challenge for the Pac-12 title as long as Dylan Andrews takes a step and the Bruins add more in the portal.
13. Alabama | Obviously, the Tide will lose Brandon Miller to the NBA. They will also likely lose Noah Clowney, but look for Jahvon Quinerly and Mark Sears to return. Nate Oats will also have Rylan Griffen, Wichita State transfer Jaykwon Walton and likely Charles Bediako back up front.
14. San Diego State | The Aztecs could very well bring back Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish, Darrion Trammell, Keshad Johnson and Jaedon LeDee from a team that went to the National Championship Game. Brian Dutcher will lose some key pieces with Matt Bradley and Nathan Mensah, but if those other guys return, San Diego State will be the clear favorite in the Mountain West.
15. Arizona | The Wildcats are losing a lot — likely Azuolas Tubelis in addition to Kerr Kriisa and Courtney Ramey. Tommy Lloyd has veteran big man Oumar Ballo, Pelle Larsson and point guard Kylan Boswell returning. Lloyd also likes the potential of young international big man Henri Veesaar.
16. USC | Andy Enfield brings in arguably the best freshman in the country in point guard Isaiah Collier. The Trojans will also have Kobe Johnson (9.2 ppg), Tre White (9.0 ppg) and Josh Morgan (7.0 ppg) back, as well as talented big man Vincent Iwuchukwu. Enfield should have depth with the addition of a couple more talented frosh in Arrinten Page and Silas Demary Jr.
17. Saint Mary’s | Give me a team coached by Randy Bennett, a backcourt with Aidan Mahaney and Augustas Marciulionis, and big man Mitchell Saxen. Alex Ducas could also return for a final season as well. There’s always someone else waiting to emerge in Moraga, and the Gaels also bring in a top-100 recruit in point guard Jordan Ross.
18. Arkansas | I’m going to take Eric Musselman, Trevon Brazile, Devo Davis and the portal here. I’m just betting that Muss and his staff bring those two guys back and do what they do in the portal — add talent. Plus, they have a couple of talented freshmen in Baye Fall and Layden Blocker.
19. Texas | I’d expect Rodney Terry to have a backcourt of Tyrese Hunter and Arterio Morris, but the question marks are whether Dylan Disu and Dillon Mitchell come back or turn pro. The Longhorns also bring in one of the best freshmen in the country in Ron Holland.
20. Baylor | Scott Drew and the Bears don’t exactly know who is returning. LJ Cryer hit the portal, but Adam Flagler could be back — and that’s the difference-maker. I’d expect Jalen Bridges to come back and join Langston Love, talented freshman Ja’Kobe Walter and big men Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Josh Ojianwuna.
21. Texas A&M | The Aggies have one of the best point guards in the country in Wade Taylor, and should also be bringing back Julius Marble, Manny Obaseki and Henry Coleman from a team that went 15-3 in the SEC last season.
22. Maryland | The Terps have Jahmir Young and Julian Reese back, and Kevin Willard brings in a strong freshman class led by DeShawn Harris-Smith and shooter Jamie Kaiser. Maryland was a tourney team in Willard’s first year, and I’d be surprised if they don’t improve in Year 2.
23. North Carolina | Armando Bacot and RJ Davis are back, and those are the two guys I’d want to build around if I am Hubert Davis. Seth Trimble and Jalen Washington should both make a jump as sophomores, and the Tar Heels will do some work in the portal.
24. Gonzaga | Drew Timme is out, Julian Strawther is likely gone and the Zags will probably lose a lot more. But it’s still Gonzaga, and I have confidence that Mark Few and his staff will reload quickly through the portal. Nolan Hickman will need to make a jump, and the Zags should have Malachi Smith, Ben Gregg and Efton Reid back in the fold, along with talented frosh Dusty Stromer.
25. St. John’s | Rick Pitino. That’s all. He’s already got a few players coming back, but he’ll stock up and then make them better.
Just Missed the Cut | Colorado, Virginia, Tennessee, Northwestern, Boise State
