Mueller: Five deals I’d like to see before the NFL trade deadline

Cover 7 | Wednesday A daily NFL destination that provides in-depth analysis of football’s biggest stories. Each Wednesday, Randy Mueller presents his insights from the point of view of the general manager’s seat.

Although the window for NFL general managers to make trades has been open all season, there is nothing like adding the element of a deadline to further conversations and add urgency. After 4 p.m. ET on Oct. 31, teams have no choice but to live with their rosters, as constructed, for the rest of the 2023 season. As we lead up to the trade window closing, we will, no doubt, have more evidence of the old adage that deadlines spur action.

As with most trade deadlines regardless of sport, an NFL GM might be faced with a dozen or so that are worth exploring. I am not advising anyone — GMs know their teams best — but for the Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints, whose seasons could go either way, I would err on the side of being aggressive. Below are five deals I would consider making ASAP:

The Bills get a linebacker for their defense

Last week Buffalo played without four starters on defense, and a fifth, edge rusher Von Miller, played sparingly. Defensive tackle Da’Quan Jones, cornerback Tre’Davious White and linebacker Matt Milano are on injured reserve, and their best defensive lineman Ed Oliver missed the game with a toe injury. It was clear they could not hold up against what had been a feeble New England Patriots offense. The Patriots got 11 first downs in the fourth quarter alone and pushed the Bills all over the field. Bills QB Josh Allen actually had regained his team the lead late before the defense faltered again and gave up a game-winning drive.

I don’t think the Bills can go on like this, and they are going to be forced to make a deal. I would start in Denver with the much-maligned Broncos, but before you laugh and say, “Why would we want anyone off a historically bad defense?”, remember that even bad defenses have players with effective individual skill sets. Against the Patriots, the Bills started two young and unproven inside linebackers and replaced one in the second half with a college free agent — hardly a recipe for long-term success.

Denver inside linebacker Josey Jewell, at age 29 and in the last year of a contract, makes some sense as a rental for the rest of this season. Broncos coach Sean Payton has made it clear he will listen to any and all offers. Jewell is a steady traffic cop who can get everyone lined up and has consistently shown a very good nose for the ball. And he might have a calming effect on a group that is reeling right now.

Additionally, if the Bills are willing to part with a little more compensation they should ask for defensive tackle Mike Purcell as well. Purcell is a versatile nose who can also play 3 technique and is also in the last year of his deal. He is playing 36 percent of Denver’s defensive snaps and holds the point of attack very well, gets off blocks and plays with a consistent motor and pad level that the Bills are really missing with Jones and Oliver out of the lineup.

Both Broncos can be expected to get a shot of adrenaline in coming from the chaos in Denver to a really good Bills team, and neither has an exorbitant salary, so they should fit in under a tighter cap. I would make either or both of these deals in a heartbeat. I’m not sure that the Bills couldn’t acquire them both for a fourth- or fifth-round pick. The Bills have to be somewhat desperate and not quibble at this point.

The Packers get a slot receiver for Jordan Love

If truth serum were given out to decision-makers on the soon-to-be frozen tundra of Green Bay, they would admit that coupling a young and unproven QB with several young and inexperienced targets might have been too much to ask. That’s especially true if they factor in losing their best running back, who was supposed to take the pressure off all the young guys with a recommitted to gr0und game for several weeks. At 2-4 and having lost three in a row. the Packers have to recalculate. Their season is on the verge of the abyss, but with a somewhat aggressive mindset, it can be rectified.

The Packers have — by age — the NFL’s youngest offense at 24.9 years, and at the wide receiver position it even skews lower at 23.5. Former Packers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are now Jets, and their experience, perspective and consistency have a value that might have been underestimated. If the Packers can find it within themselves to add a veteran receiver, or even two, I think it would make everyone’s life on offense easier.

Hunter Renfrow of the Las Vegas Raiders has been in the witness protection program so far this season. Now 28, he’s the same Renfrow who had 103 catches in 2021. He has a mind-boggling eight catches on 12 targets this season (both fifth on the team) and is playing 36 percent of the offensive snaps.

That sounds even crazier to me when you pull up the film and still see quickness, agility, burst to separate against man-to-man coverage AND a natural feel for finding soft spots against zone. If there was ever a case to be made for a change of scenery, this is it. I don’t understand at all what the Raiders are trying to do, except to say he serves a parallel role with former Patriot Jakobi Meyers — who might have the role of “teacher’s pet” locked down.

If Green Bay can get the Raiders to pay the majority share of what is left of Hunter’s 2023 salary (approximately $4 million), it should jump at giving up a late-round draft pick for 2024 or beyond. I don’t think the Packers can afford to wait, either, because there might be some competition. The Patriots, Saints and even the 49ers, with Deebo Samuel out, could make a case to add a skill set of Renfrow’s nature if the price is right.

The Patriots get some speed for their offense

At times it’s painful to watch. A lack of big plays and explosive players force offenses into long drives that end more times than not with errors or penalties or just flat bad execution. That’s been the story of the New England offense before their breakout game against Buffalo in Week 7, a result I see more as an exception than a trend. The Patriots need to find a way to insert some talent around QB Mac Jones or his career as a starter will be short-lived.

No team has struggled more to draft wide receivers over the last 15 years than the Patriots. Their process of evaluating has definitely been flawed. And I think they are to the point this year where beggars can’t be choosers. They can’t wait long trying to find the perfect fit or negotiating the best compensation to acquire a wide receiver. The need for speed is a reason to slightly overpay. That’s why I would make the deal for Denver Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy. Sure, maybe you’d rather have his teammate Courtland Sutton — because I do think he’s a better player — but Sutton’s contract is problematic both for Denver and an acquiring team, so that is unlikely to happen.

Jeudy, on the other hand, will carry approximately $1.5 million of salary to a new team and as a former first-round pick has a fifth-year option that has already been exercised at $12.9 million for 2024. Jeudy has 20 catches and is playing 59 percent of the offensive snaps this season. His skill set jumps out, although consistency and intangibles are still a work in progress. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a great relationship with Jeudy’s college coach from Alabama Nick Saban, so the task of pushing the right buttons on Jeudy to further his maturity should be easy.

Back to the skill set. Jeudy is not strong or physical, but he can eat up a cushion, separate from coverage and actually take the top off of defenses in a way that no current Pats receiver can. He can be explosive after the catch and is not afraid to go over the middle and extend to catch with his hands. He just needs to be more consistent in doing it. Being a college teammate of Jones can’t hurt in getting up to speed in the Patriot ways, either.

I think Jeudy gets traded somewhere, and there probably will be some competition for his services as the deadline nears.

The Saints get a TE to help their downhill run game

I get it, Derek Carr has struggled and the offensive line has been besieged with injury. That is not a good combination for an offense that seems out of rhythm and without a true identity. The Saints’ running game has been a lateral, sideline-to-sideline attempt to get Alvin Kamara back in the swing of things since his return from suspension. He has become no more than a third-down receiver who fills up fantasy football points columns. His contract precludes the Saints from moving him at next week’s deadline, but a trade after the season might be an option.

For the Saints to improve right now, they need a more direct approach with a downhill back to take pressure off Carr and the receivers, who do not seem to be on the same page (I could make a case for Renfrow here as well, but the salary cap probably won’t allow it). When the Saints offense was rolling they always included a back or two who could get yards after contact with pad level and power but also had enough juice to power through arm tackles.

If you haven’t figured it out yet, the theme here is any addition to the roster has to be a minimum salary or close to it. To improve the run game, the Saints’ best option might be a blocking tight end. They are getting little or nothing out of this position, especially in the blocking department. But a deal is there for the making with the Arizona Cardinals in 30-year-old Geoff Swaim. Swaim has been known as one of the better blocking TEs in the league and in my opinion could be had for a cup of coffee. The Cardinals are looking for any draft picks to add youth. Swaim is still doing his thing this year for a rebuilding Arizona team and would probably welcome a potential playoff run as an option. He is listed third on the Cardinals’ depth chart, playing 34 percent of the snaps.

Most would see this as a low-level deal with little consequence, but having a more physical player at the point of attack can set the tone and mindset of a Saints team that has become somewhat finesse-based. Adding toughness and grit from a position that has become pass-catcher-friendly could be a nice option for a team in transition like this one.

I might even look to add another back with size and juice like a Ty Chandler from the Vikings, whom I like a lot. For some reason, the Vikings don’t see value in him, and he plays very little. He got passed on the depth chart in September when the Vikings acquired Cam Akers, who was familiar with head coach Kevin O’Connell’s offense from the Rams. Some team doing their homework should inquire, because I think Chandler is a starting RB in the NFL.

A forward-thinking team gets a future starting QB

Last year during my draft prep I saw a QB who, after a full evaluation, I felt was a possible NFL starter. Hendon Hooker from the University of Tennessee showed me arm talent, good athletic ability, an ability to process and NFL accuracy. He threw with enough timing and anticipation that I ranked him in my top five QBs for the 2024 NFL Draft. He injured his ACL during his final season and is rehabbing with the Detroit Lions, who chose him in the third round.

Things have changed for the Lions since then. Jared Goff is having an outstanding year — so much so that they almost have to extend his contract at some point soon. To that end, if you’re a team that had similar thoughts as I did regarding Hooker and still have doubts about your QB of the future, why not make a call to Detroit?

We did this once in 2000 when I was GM of the Saints. The Packers had drafted a QB out of Virginia, Aaron Brooks, in Round 4 the prior year. I liked him a lot during our pre-draft process, and a year later in New Orleans, we were still not solid on our guy for the future. We offered the Packers a third-round pick for Brooks, and he became the franchise’s all-time leading passer before Drew Brees broke his records.

If you have conviction for your evaluations and confidence in your team being a good fit, I’d make the Lions say no to a second-round pick for Hooker before I moved on to another option at QB.

• The trading is well underway with the latest move being the Tennessee Titans shipping safety and four-time captain Kevin Byard to the Super Bowl-contending Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles always seem to be in go mode to get better. The Titans, who earlier this summer tried to coax a pay cut out of Byard (unsuccessfully I might add) now face a locker room of questions that follow a move like this if it even smells remotely like a rebuild. Moving on from Byard, who was no doubt seen as a loyal soldier who has never missed a game in eight seasons, secured 27 career interceptions and is the voice/face of your defense, is a hard sell to those who aspire to be just like him. We as GMs have all had to do this sooner or later, and it’s not easy.

• Sometimes the team-building agendas in the same building can differ. A coach who needs to win right now to secure his future with the team as opposed to a longer-term approach of thinking beyond this year and acquiring a piece for the future — in a draft choice — are two different mindsets. That’s why it’s important to have the GM and the head coach on the same team-building cycle.

You see this in Washington where coach Ron Rivera needs all the wins he can get — this year — which makes it tough to give up any players that might help that cause. But having paid two of his starting front four on defense and having the other two as free agents at season’s end makes it probably impossible to pay everyone. So the question the Commanders must consider is, do we get something now for one as opposed to nothing in four months?

(Photo of Josey Jewell: Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)