The war between Israel and Hamas is set to intensify,with a ground invasion of Gaza believed to be imminent. Israeli forces are gathering in strength along the border, and defence minister Yoav Gallant, has told the waiting troops that they will soon see Gaza “from inside. The command will come”.
That command, when it comes, could be the first blow in a much wider conflict. In the Mediterranean sea, a US carrier strike group stands watch, hoping to deter other regional actors from attempting to intervene in the war between Israel and Hamas. A second group is headed to the Persian Gulf, alongside missile defence systems. Artillery shells which were previously headed to Ukraine have instead been reserved for Israel.
On Israel’s northern border, meanwhile, exchanges of fire with the Iranian-funded terror group Hezbollah are growing in intensity. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that direct conflict would bring “unimaginable devastation” to Lebanon and Hezbollah.
The world is mustering for war. Conflict is already raging in Europe, with Russian and Ukrainian forces locked in offensive and counteroffensive. The aftermath of the Hamas terror attack upon Israel could now see the Middle East ignited.
Whether or not it does rests in part with Iran, the funder and political master of both Hamas and Hezbollah, which is now moments away from potentially plunging the world into a third world war.
The Iranian foreign minister has warned Israel that if the war is not stopped “immediately”, then “anything is possible at any moment, and the region will go out of control”. US defence secretary Lloyd Austin has warned of a very real risk of “significant escalation” of attacks on American forces and civilians.
He has good reason to be concerned. Tehran is not confining its hostility to words; its regional proxies seem determined to entangle the US further, attacking American forces with drones and missiles at the Ain Al-Asad airbase in Iraq and al-Tanf in Syria.
Iran is not shying away. Already, a US warship has shot down three cruise missiles launched by Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists in Yemen. Heading north, these missiles were potentially targeting Israel. If successful, such an attack would have far-reaching consequences for Iran, with almost certain Israeli retaliation potentially triggering a direct war – and US involvement.
The situation is unbearably tense. Even as its commitment to Ukraine’s war begins to waver, the West again finds itself challenged by authoritarian regimes. The resources available for Israel are not unlimited. In addition to maintaining the supply of arms to Ukraine, America must also worry about its Pacific flank.
Washington is engaged in frantically regearing its own military to face the threat posed by an increasingly belligerent Chinese communist regime, intent on reunification with Taiwan by force if necessary. With war and great power competition raging in Europe, and the US increasingly embroiled in the Middle East, the communist regime in Beijing may see this as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
With American attention divided, Iran may decide to further provoke the US in its attempts to assert regional dominance, attempting to drive the Americans to disengage and leave Israel to stand on its own.
It is not hard to see how an ill-judged act of hostility could trigger a military response and see the situation in the Middle East begin to spiral out of the control of any individual leader, draw in Washington, and give China the window to attempt a killing blow in Taiwan – one which would almost inevitably draw an American response.
Within months, the US could be directly involved in two devastating wars on two continents, and bankrolling a third in Ukraine.
This nightmare is not inevitable. The pathway to escalation is paved with good intentions and appeasement. If America and the West show resolve, that they will fight in response to provocation, they can still face down their would-be tormentors.
So far, Washington and its allies have been unflinching in their support for Israel and Kyiv. They must not waver in the weeks ahead. Dictators and strongmen only respect strength, and it is strength and resolve that will force Tehran to back down. As the old saying has it, if you would have peace, prepare for war.
Robert Clark is director of defence and security at Civitas. Prior to this he served in the British Army
