It’s almost an embarrassment of riches for sixth-ranked juggernauts Penn State. Somehow, despite surging out to a 6-0 start and dominating its first three conference opponents each by three scores, there seems to be another gear to Penn State’s offense going unused, or perhaps even unneeded.
The Nittany Lion offense currently ranks second to last in FBS in explosive play rate and hasn’t completed a pass for more than 35 yards since Week 1, opting for a more methodical approach that has produced one comical press conference interaction with James Franklin and zero close games for his bunch.
Any bullets left in the Penn State chamber likely need to be fired Saturday, however, facing off against Jim Knowles’s stingy defense will be difficult. Since arriving from Oklahoma State in 2022 as defensive coordinator, Knowles has helped redefine the Buckeyes from a squad desperate for passable defense to a squad defined by it — the Buckeyes defense ranks sixth in expected yards added (EPA) and has allowed an average of fewer than 10 points per game thus far in 2023.
And as a consequence of Penn State’s more intentional approach, a notable red flag on the Nittany Lion statistical profile is their struggles on early downs, moving the chains on just 28 percent of first-and-second down snaps — the Ohio State defense, in turn, excels in this area, allowing conversions on a second-ranked 19.5 percent of snaps on first and second down. The Ohio State defense appears to have an excellent opportunity to force Penn State behind schedule and make sophomore PSU quarterback Drew Allar beat them.
Conversely, Saturday offers the ultimate test — Penn State ranks first in FBS for EPA/pass — for an Ohio State aerial attack that has looked improved after facing early criticism. Buckeye quarterback Kyle McCord notably struggled against Indiana in Week 1, throwing zero touchdowns, an interception and misfiring often in a tightly-contested first half. McCord rallied in the second half to help OSU pull away and has impressed ever since, surpassing 250 passing yards in all but one game and tossing 11 touchdowns to zero picks.
Even an improved McCord still projects to struggle against a Penn State defense that has held opposing quarterbacks under 130 yards in its last three games. Production from Ohio State’s inconsistent run game, currently averaging 4.3 yards per carry, will be crucial for the Buckeyes in order to secure the home W.
