SEATTLE — As the Rangers head into game No. 160, there are three games, including their own, that could have an impact on the Rangers’ playoff situation: Tampa Bay at Toronto (6:07 CT), Houston at Arizona (8:40 CT) and the Rangers at Seattle (9:10).
Here’s the Rangers playoff scenario heading into the tonight:
Rangers win vs. Seattle
If the Rangers, currently 89-69, beat Seattle on Friday, they will have 90 wins and clinch a wild card berth, at least. Seattle would not be able to get to more than 88 wins.
If the Rangers win and Tampa Bay, which is locked into the first wild card and No. 4 overall seed, beats Toronto, then it would assure the Rangers of no worse than the No. 2 wild card. Toronto, currently 88-71, would only be able to, at best, tie the Rangers. The Rangers won the season series, so they own any tiebreaker with Toronto.
If the Rangers and Arizona win, it would clinch the AL West for the Rangers. The Astros would not be able to get to more than 89 wins. There is plenty for Arizona to play for. The Diamondbacks are currently the No. 2 wild card in the National League and could, pending other games involving Miami and the Chicago Cubs, clinch their own playoff berth with a win.
The AL West winner is going to have at least 89 wins and that will be good enough for the No. 2 seed in the AL playoff bracket. Minnesota, the Central winner, can’t win more than 88. So that is settled. The AL West winner will host the winner of the Minnesota-No. 3 Wild Card best-of-three series winner on Oct. 7 to start the ALDS.
Rangers lose vs. Seattle
The Rangers basic playoff scenario is simple: Win any of their final three games and they guarantee themselves a playoff spot of some sort.
If the Rangers lose, however, things get more complicated. It leaves open the possibility that Houston, regardless of outcome on Friday, the Rangers and Seattle could all end up at 89-73. That is the potential nightmare for the Rangers. More on that in a second.
If the Rangers and Astros both lose, it would reduce the Rangers’ magic number to clinch the division to one. If the Rangers win either of their two games over the weekend OR the Astros lose either of their final two, Texas clinches the division and the bounty that goes with it.
If the Rangers lose and Houston wins, however, it leaves open this possibility: The Rangers lose the final two games of the season to Seattle, while Houston splits the final two games with Arizona. Under that, all three AL West teams are 89-73. The tiebreaker would be record against the other two teams in the tie. Seattle would be 14-12 vs. the other two, Houston is 13-13 and the Rangers would be 12-14. It would place the Mariners first, Houston second and the Rangers third.
Under that scenario, the Rangers would have to hope Toronto goes no better than 1-2 over the weekend. In that case, the Blue Jays could not get to more than 89 wins. The Rangers win any tiebreaker scenario with Toronto based on going 6-1 against the Blue Jays.
Twitter: @Evan_P_Grant
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