Why hasn’t Shohei Ohtani opted for Tommy John surgery?
Only three explanations seem possible:
• He wants to continue enjoying his best offensive season, nailing down the American League MVP award, the Angels’ single-season home-run record and possibly an unprecedented 50-homer, 25-stolen-base season.
• He wants to avoid undergoing a second TJ, knowing his rehabilitation as a pitcher might be even lengthier and more difficult than it was the first time, when he was limited to 1 2/3 innings over two seasons.
• He wants to ensure he is ready for Opening Day 2024 as a hitter, making him much more marketable as a free agent this offseason than he would be coming off surgery. How that would affect his status as a pitcher, however, is unclear.
As usual, Ohtani is trying to have it all, and maybe he can. The odds, however, would appear against him. The torn UCL he suffered while pitching on Aug. 23 is an injury that usually results in an elbow-ligament reconstruction.
Ohtani and his team surely are evaluating every option and trying to make the most informed decision possible. At the moment, no decision seems imminent. This is Day Nine since Ohtani blew out, and he remains the designated hitter for a team that officially has given up on its season. The Angels earlier this week placed six players on waivers, five of whom were claimed by other clubs on Thursday.
In the absence of any explanation from Ohtani or his agent, Nez Balelo, neither of whom has spoken to the media since Ohtani’s injury, there is only speculation. The nature of Ohtani’s tear, his reasons for continuing to play, his motivations once he reaches free agency, all of it remains unknown.
Ohtani, 29, is under no obligation to reveal his innermost thoughts, although the overwhelming majority of players do converse with the media, their conduits to the public, on a regular basis. It’s possible he is simply trying to figure out how to proceed. After doctors recommended his first TJ in the fall of 2018, he took 20 days to make a decision.
His circumstances are different now, far more complex. Ohtani’s rehabilitation from his first surgery was quite difficult. He since has emerged as a top pitcher, the best hitter in the game and the most coveted potential free agent. Maybe he is considering alternatives to surgery. Maybe he just wants to keep chasing numbers. Maybe both.
Some pitchers pitch with partial UCL tears without undergoing surgery. Ohtani’s Japanese compatriot Masahiro Tanaka was one such pitcher. He first injured his elbow in 2014 and missed about 2 1/2 months, but pitched with the partial tear for the rest of his career.
A similar “rest and rehab” option for Ohtani might only suffice if his tear is minor. Immediately after his injury, the Angels announced he would not pitch the rest of the season, which at that point had five weeks remaining. They did not say he had a partial tear. Just a tear.
Some pitchers opt for platelet-rich plasma (PRP) injections in an attempt to avoid surgery, but those attempts often fail with elbows, as Ohtani learned in ‘18. The Dodgers’ Dustin May and Red Sox’s Chris Sale are among the other pitchers who received the injections and later required TJs. Some in the game view the treatment as simply delaying the inevitable.
Conceivably, Ohtani could opt for surgery soon and still return as a hitter by Opening Day. When he underwent his first TJ on Oct. 1, 2018, he came back as a hitter the following May 9. The Phillies’ Bryce Harper this season made an even quicker recovery, undergoing the surgery Nov. 23 and making his season debut May 2. His return, which included a career-high homerless drought of 166 plate appearances through July 14, was not entirely smooth. But he was back to himself in August, hitting 10 homers and producing a 1.236 OPS.
The difference with Harper is that he was coming off his first Tommy John. The recovery from a second TJ is longer and more delicate. Doctors told The Athletic’s Evan Drellich that if Ohtani has the surgery, the best way for him to return as a top pitcher would be to avoid hitting entirely in 2024, so as not to disrupt his rehabilitation process.
Ohtani’s sheer desire to play makes it unlikely he would sit out an entire season. He learned of his torn UCL between games of a doubleheader and played the second game. And if he’s brooding over the unfortunate state of his pitching arm, it’s sure difficult to tell. Since his diagnosis, he is 9-for-27 with five extra-base hits and seven walks. He continues to lead the majors with 44 homers and a 1.071 OPS.
Clearly Ohtani wants to polish off an already historic season. Twice during the Angels’ just-completed road trip, he attempted steals of third with two outs, succeeding once and getting caught once. He is three homers shy of tying Troy Glaus’ club record of 47 homers in a season, six homers and six stolen bases shy of becoming the game’s first 50-25 player (Alex Rodriguez was 54-24 in 2007, Willie Mays 51-24 in 1955).
Even a Triple Crown might not be out of reach; Ohtani leads the American League in homers by nine, is third in RBIs by two and third in batting average by 20 points. One rival executive, granted anonymity so he could speak candidly, said Ohtani’s value as a hitter is set and he will not earn a single cent more by continuing to pile up numbers. Another executive took almost the opposite view, saying if Ohtani is merely delaying surgery by a month, his contract will not be affected any because the team that signs him will be getting him long-term.
So much about Ohtani remains a mystery. How much longer does he want to be a two-way player? (Most clubs do not expect him to pitch for the entirety of a long-term deal.) Would he be open to playing the outfield? (Perhaps not if he wants to avoid wear and tear on his legs.) Might teams consider him less valuable on the open market if they feared he only might be a DH? (His marketing potential still might help him get $500 million.)
One question, though, must be answered before all others.
Why hasn’t Ohtani opted for Tommy John surgery?
Only Shohei knows.
(Photo of Ohtani: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)
