A new COVID variant is turning heads as Houston grapples with an ongoing wave. Meanwhile, the release of an updated vaccine is still weeks away.
With so many questions swirling around the lingering virus, here’s what you need to know:
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Why are people talking about this new variant, BA.2.86?
Two weeks ago, COVID samples from people in Denmark and Israel revealed a new variant, BA.2.86, with a high number of genetic mutations. Since then, 23 cases of the new variant have been detected in seven countries, including three in the United States. So far, no cases have been identified in Houston wastewater or through Houston Methodist’s genome sequencing efforts.
It’s still too early to tell whether the new variant is more transmissible or severe than the current strains in circulation. Areas where the variant has been detected have not seen an unusual increase in hospitalizations, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, its presence in multiple countries — at a time when genetic sequencing efforts have slowed — gives scientists reason to believe the new strain is spreading faster than the data shows.
There is concern that the strain’s mutations could allow it to evade immunity from recent infections or vaccinations. According to the CDC, the number of genetic differences is roughly of the same magnitude as seen between the Delta variant and the Omicron variant, which led to a record-breaking number of cases and hospitalizations across the country in early 2022.
New strains with “eye-catching combinations” are nothing new, said Dr. Wesley Long, a pathologist at Houston Methodist. Many heavily mutated variants detected during the pandemic never out-competed the dominant strains and fizzled out.
“Even if it is more evasive, pretty much everyone at this point has some level of immunity and some level of memory cells to COVID-19,” he said. “So with that sort of evasion, it could just mean you’d be more likely to get a symptomatic infection than not.”
Vaccines should still provide a good defense against severe disease and death, he said.
How will the new strain affect the fall COVID vaccine rollout?
An updated vaccine, tailored to the XBB-lineage of the Omicron variant, is expected to become available shortly after a CDC advisory panel meets on Sept. 12 to vote on recommended guidelines.
The targeted strain, XBB1.5, is already losing ground to other variants. As of Aug. 19, strains called EG.5 and FL.1.5.1 dominated cases in the United States. Both variants are within the same family as XBB, so the new vaccine should still offer good protection, said Long.
It’s still unclear how the upcoming vaccine will perform against the new variant, BA.2.86. But “boosting our COVID-19 immunity overall is going to help protect against any variant that comes along to some extent,” Long said.
Only 17 percent of Americans received the last updated COVID shot, which became available in September 2022. Even when a vaccinated person becomes infected, a recent study suggests their symptoms are less severe and shorter-lived compared to an unvaccinated person.
Is Houston still in a COVID wave? How bad is it?
Yes. The viral load in Houston’s wastewater is 375 percent of the baseline set in July 2020 — a nearly six-fold increase since late June and the highest level since January. Infection levels appear to be tapering off at many of the city’s 31 wastewater treatment plants, with 18 plants showing a decreasing or unchanged viral load compared to the previous week.
Texas Children’s Hospital continues to see an elevated number of COVID admissions. The hospital reported more than 20 COVID hospitalizations on Tuesday, up from about 10 patients per day earlier this month, officials said. Also on Tuesday, there were 119 COVID patients at Houston Methodist, an increase from 107 the night before.
It has become difficult to measure the full scale of COVID hospitalizations since the Texas Medical Center stopped regularly publishing data. But Dr. David Persse, Houston’s public health authority, said admissions in Houston are nowhere near the numbers seen earlier in the pandemic when wastewater values reached similar levels. The people getting sick enough to require hospitalization are generally older and more vulnerable, he said.
What should parents consider as kids go back to school?
It’s not time to panic. Experts say parents should pay close attention to symptoms and test when appropriate. If you or your child are sick, don’t try to power through. Stay home to stop the transmission.
The new vaccine likely will be approved for children and adults this fall, said Dr. Peter Hotez, vaccine researcher with Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital. That will offer the best defense against the virus. In the meantime, consider wearing a mask in crowded indoor spaces, he said.
Basic mitigation measures, such as hand washing and mask-wearing, are especially important now, “given the fact that most Americans haven’t gotten a booster for at least a year, and many haven’t gotten any Omicron booster,” he said.
