By Dom Luszczyszyn, Shayna Goldman and Sean Gentille
The hype surrounding Connor McDavid’s Edmonton Oilers has never been greater.
This is the best the franchise has looked in the McDavid era from top to bottom, a buzzsaw that is coming into the playoffs red-hot. Combine that with a wide-open Western Conference and this is the clearest path McDavid and Co. have ever had to the Stanley Cup.
Standing in their way is an equally hot Los Angeles Kings team, one that has looked like a contender in its own right during the season’s second half, and one that has the exact strengths that can stymie a high-octane club.
Edmonton should win this one, but if last year’s matchup was any indication, the Oilers will have to earn every inch of ice to get there.
The Odds
The Oilers have a good chance of advancing to the second round for the third time in the McDavid era and for the second straight season. It’s a nearly identical probability to last season, when the Oilers were 68 percent favorites, though the new model believes that was too low. Based on their Offensive and Defensive Ratings last season, the Oilers should’ve been closer to 75 percent.
That series, which the Oilers won in seven games, rarely felt as lopsided as those odds suggested, though, and in that sense, it’s very notable that the Kings’ odds have improved by six percentage points year-over-year. Part of that is having Drew Doughty around this year, but the other part is the Kings improving in lockstep with the Oilers. Edmonton is a better team than it was last season, but so is Los Angeles.
The end result is a series that the Oilers should win, but one that the Kings have a fighting chance in. A 31 percent chance is far from nothing, and it could be further buoyed by the stylistic roster makeups of both clubs. Since 2010, defensive teams have had more success than expected going up against offensive teams in head-to-head matchups.
That means that these odds might undersell Los Angeles’ upset potential here over an Oilers team that leans heavily towards the offensive side of the spectrum. We saw the blueprint for that in last year’s playoffs between these very two clubs.
Then again, we also saw a superstar take over the series when needed, and that’s the other stylistic consideration that swings the pendulum back toward the Oilers.
The Numbers
If defense wins championships, the Kings are in luck. This is a team with a plus-22 defensive rating thanks to their efforts in their own zone, which have only improved since the trade deadline. The Kings only give up 7.49 expected goals against. That stems from their ability to deny entry to opponents and to limit chances against on the entries that do slip through. That’s especially true since the deadline. Since bolstering their defense and goaltending, Los Angeles ranks as a top-two team in expected and actual goals against.
The Oilers have bettered themselves in their own zone since the deadline, just not to the same extent as the Kings. With additions, including Mattias Ekholm and Nick Bjugstad, the team has improved its shots and quality chances against. It has solidified one end of the ice to balance where they really shine: offensively. Their collective plus-52 offensive rating is second only to the Panthers among playoff teams. Season-wide, this is a top-five team in expected and actual goals at five-on-five; they’ve only improved since the deadline.
But where the Oilers really kick their offense up a notch is on the power play. All four forwards who are mainstays on the top unit score the majority of their points on the advantage. While the team generated almost 11 goals for per 60, they outperformed that by about 3.3 goals. In the analytics era, no team has matched Edmonton’s scoring rate of 13.3 per 60; it’s that elite.
Technically, the Kings are second in their power-play scoring rate this season, but there’s a gap of 3.48 goals per 60 between the teams. So even if both teams have their power plays operating at their best, that “best” is very different.
What helps Los Angeles is that they have an edge in their expected goal suppression on the penalty kill. It’s slightly above Edmonton, although the Oilers have allowed fewer goals against. Maybe the changes in net will help; the Kings are going to have to give it their all to contain that power play.
The Big Question
Can the Oilers keep rolling after a strong finish to the season?
You’re excused if you missed Edmonton’s post-deadline metamorphosis into a complete hockey team. It seemed to happen quickly, and in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds, but here we are.
After March 3, the Oilers went 16-2-1, outscoring opponents 82-51. There’s substance behind those numbers; it wasn’t due to the galaxy’s best power play or a shooting-percentage bender, either. In that span, Edmonton shaved 0.3 off their five-on-five goals against/60, jumping from 21st in the league to 12th. Stuart Skinner is the biggest reason for the improvement. The rookie goalie, who began the season as Jack Campbell’s backup, has thrown up a .918 save percentage and a 7.31 Goals Saved Above Expected (ninth in the NHL) in 14 games.
Now, would Edmonton rather have Campbell, the goaltender they signed to a five-year, $25 million contract, putting up numbers like that in his first season? It’d certainly be better for business. But the Oilers are good enough to win with average play from their goaltenders. Skinner has been better than that, and Campbell (.888 save percentage, 99th out of 102 goalies in GSAx) has been dramatically worse. The best season of McDavid’s career doesn’t deserve to be wasted on an application of the Sunk Cost Fallacy.
There are other reasons for the improvement throughout the lineup. Edmonton has actually made a bigger jump on the offensive side at five-on-five, going from 2.84 goals/60 (sixth in the NHL) to 3.27 (second). At the top of the list, individually speaking, is … wait for it … Mattias Ekholm. If he simply came as advertised from the Predators — a rock-solid, unremarkable, second-pair defenseman — the Oilers would’ve been happy. On top of that, he’s having an enormous impact on their five-on-five offense.
In 21 games, Edmonton is scoring 5.33 goals/60 with Ekholm on the ice. That’s more than they are with Connor McDavid. It’s more than they are with Leon Draisaitl. It is, in fact, more than any team is scoring with any player who has played 50 minutes or more this season. Part of that starts with Ekholm’s work on simply clearing the puck out of the Oilers’ zone. With the talent they have at the top of the roster, some things can stay simple. He’s also been good for partner Evan Bouchard, who has 11 five-on-five points himself since Ekholm’s arrival.
And really, both Ekholm and Skinner are reasons to believe the answer to our question could be “yes.” The Oilers’ improvement isn’t a random occurrence. It’s not mediocre players with mediocre track records having their moment. Edmonton identified points of need and implemented actual change. The front office held up its end of the deal, and the supporting cast is doing the same.
The X-Factor
Is Vladislav Gavrikov’s impact on the Kings still being undersold?
The Oilers weren’t the only Western Conference team to get themselves a no-frills, minute-eating defenseman and watch him immediately show his worth. Vladislav Gavrikov, acquired along with goalie Joonas Korpisalo from the Blue Jackets, was viewed — confusedly in some spots — as one of the prizes of the deadline. The Kings had a need on the left side behind Mikey Anderson. After some fruitless attempts at acquiring Jakob Chychrun and a failed deal that would’ve sent Gavrikov from Columbus to Boston, the Kings found their guy.
The elements Gavrikov brings to the table — blocked shots, huge minutes, goals against impacts — are now better accounted for in the new model, via the Defensive Rating number, which better appreciates defenders who eat big minutes. Gavrikov’s season-long output, which includes his time with the Blue Jackets and his strong finish with the Kings, is above average. What he’s done with the Kings alone, though, has been significantly better; his average Game Score of 1.16 with the Kings is 11th in the league among defensemen and higher than what Adam Fox managed with the Rangers (1.13).
Is Gavrikov better than Fox? Not many would say that. But he’s also probably better than advertised, and he’s certainly great for the Kings, who’ve outscored opponents 14-6 and played to an expected goals percentage of nearly 59 with him on the ice. That’s better than any of their other regular skaters. Throw in Gavrikov’s three goals and one of the league’s better celebrations, and there’s nothing not to like about the player or the fit.
The Rosters
Offensive and Defensive Rating explainer
When it comes to these two teams, the star-power angle is impossible to ignore. Having McDavid is a huge advantage and he unsurprisingly has the largest impact on series odds of any skater with a Net Rating of plus-29. That’s as much as Los Angeles’ top seven forwards combined. Draisaitl, at plus-20, isn’t far behind as a top five player in the league. His two-way game blossoming over the last two months is a big reason why the Oilers have become a legitimate contender.
The Oilers aren’t just a two-man team anymore, but those two do make up for a lot of the team’s total value. They’re a problem the Kings need to solve. Having Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault is a decent solution for that — especially with Kopitar’s defensive resurgence this year — but maybe not enough of one, not with the way the Edmonton’s top duo has scored and driven play this year. That’s not a slight at the Kings’ center duo; it’s a problem any other team would also have stopping an almost unstoppable duo.
It’s not just McDavid and Draisaitl the Kings have to worry about, either. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a career year offensively, scoring 104 points, while Zach Hyman had 83. That was the fourth-best mark on the Oilers, but it would lead the Kings. A lot of that is thanks to an impossibly good power play, but that’s still a lot of firepower for the Kings to stop.
The Oilers have four of the most dangerous weapons in this series, and that creates a tough hill for the Kings to climb. Stopping the Oilers can’t be the Kings’ only plan; they also need to counter-punch. If Kevin Fiala is healthy, he’s a strong start for that, someone who can potentially exploit Edmonton’s weaker bottom six. But after him, a trio of Kopitar, Viktor Arvidsson and Adrian Kempe doesn’t measure up well offensively to what the Oilers can unleash.
To the Kings’ credit, their top two lines all grade out as above-average defensively. They both earned 55 percent of the expected goals this year, but the second one couldn’t quite convert it to actual goal differential. In contrast, both of the Oilers’ top two lines earned over 62 percent of the goals this year on the back of scoring over four goals-per-60.
A lot will come down to Los Angeles being able to weather the storm in the top six and hope that its depth can prevail. Fiala is a massive part of that, as is Gabriel Vilardi. The Oilers’ defense-minded bottom six is stronger than it’s ever been in the McDavid era, but it still doesn’t have any player at the level of those two, or Alex Iafallo for that matter. The problem is that neither Fiala nor Vilardi is a guarantee to play Game 1 because of injuries, and that could greatly diminish one of the Kings’ biggest advantages. There’s more to like in the Kings’ bottom six than on the Oilers’ side, but not if those two aren’t fully healthy. Even if they are, it’s not enough of an advantage to mitigate the chasm between the top six on both sides.
The Oilers also have an edge on defense, and it stems from the teams’ differing play-style philosophies. The Kings’ defense corps is more well-rounded and much stronger defensively, but it lacks the offensive oomph that the Oilers’ group possesses. That’s vital when it comes to unlocking the team’s weaponry up front.
Still, you want your defensemen to actually play defense, and while the Oilers’ group isn’t a train wreck by any means, it’s not the best sign when five of the six defenders grade out as below-average defenders. Compare that to Los Angeles’ top four, which has a lot of collective defensive might, and that could be something that dictates the series.
It’s why Edmonton’s acquisition of Ekholm was exactly what the team needed, singlehandedly bringing the Defensive Rating of the team’s defensemen to a positive rate. It speaks volumes that his Net Rating is right in line with Doughty’s. Those two are the bedrocks that both blue lines are built upon, and they bring immense value at both ends of the ice.
Edmonton’s top pair is the stronger one overall, though, and that’s because of Evan Bouchard, whose game has jumped to new levels since the Ekholm trade. His underlying numbers sparkled all year, but he now has the results to back it up. He’s a perfect fit next to Ekholm, giving the Oilers an elite puck-moving combo that can give a boost to their top six. Mikey Anderson is a strong defensive defender who will help the Kings attempt to shutdown Edmonton’s top six, but he doesn’t add much the other way. That puts more of an onus on Doughty to be the offensive leader on the team to do it all, whereas Ekholm can lean on Bouchard in that regard.
The Oilers also have Darnell Nurse on the second pair, which adds to the team’s edge. He gives the Oilers a third true top-pairing defenseman, thanks to his ability to drive offense. It’s another edge in the star-power department over the Kings, who only have Doughty at that level. To their credit, Gavrikov and Matt Roy have been an elite second pair together, and what they lack in offensive ability, they make up for with their shutdown prowess.
Against the Oilers, having two shutdown pairs to go with two shutdown lines is essential: one unit for McDavid, one for Draisaitl. The Kings are uniquely built to stop the Oilers based on how their top six and top four are constructed defensively, and that’s what makes this a tough matchup for the Oilers, regardless of the talent imbalance. It’s still one they should win because of that imbalance — the Oilers dictate the terms of the series thanks to it — but the Kings won’t make it easy.
In net is where both teams are on relatively shaky ground. Skinner has been excellent in his first season, with 18 goals saved in 50 games, but he’s just a rookie. He doesn’t exactly have the resume to be a safe bet. Korpisalo has been fantastic this season, with 17 goals saved in 39 games, but that’s after years of being one of the league’s worst goalies. That’s not a safe bet, either. The Oilers do have the edge in net, but it’s not by a wide margin, and both goalies have a lot of room for error in either direction.
The Key Matchup
Connor McDavid vs. Anze Kopitar
If the Kings are to have a chance in this series, the theme is going to be very clear: containing McDavid. The expectation isn’t stopping him outright — he’s on a level that few can contend with in today’s game. So, opponents have to do whatever they can to slow him down.
That’s a task that Los Angeles has two centers to help manage: Kopitar and Danault. Danault has gained a reputation for elite defensive play, especially in a playoff environment. There’s a list of high-end offensive talents he’s been able stop in series, and the expectation will be no different this year. But it’s possible that Danault is fed a heavy dose of Draisaitl, and Kopitar is the center tapped to really take on McDavid.
This year, the two have gone head-to-head at five-on-five in about 22 minutes. In that time, Edmonton generated about 60 percent of the shot attempts. Los Angeles has managed to block nine of the Oilers’ attempts, but still fell below break-even in expected goals. That’s going to have to change if the Kings are going to have a chance. Kopitar’s going to have to anticipate the shifty forward’s next moves and use smart positioning to take away chances. Overcommitting to McDavid can easily lead to a quality chance against, because he can adapt on the fly so well. If that’s the story from the first few games, the expectation should be a flip to Danault covering him once the series shifts back to Los Angeles.
The Bottom Line
The Oilers are the rightful favorite in this series. Their best players are somehow better than ever before, and the rest of the roster is more balanced and supported.
But Edmonton is not the only team that improved this year. The Kings, who almost disrupted McDavid and the Oilers last spring, are stronger than the team that lost in seven games last time. They’ve progressed from where they started the regular season, too.
That makes for a really interesting series that has some upset potential. The chances of that, considering the heights of the Oilers, should be thin. But if last year proved anything, the Kings won’t be an easy out. That should be even truer this time around.
References
How these projections work
How these projections performed last season
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo of Leon Draisaitl and Anze Kopitar: Perry Nelson / USA Today)
