The national final game that nobody predicted is here. For the first time in 12 years, the championship will not feature a No. 1 seed, and the winning team will celebrate the first national title in program history. Neither LSU nor Iowa has ever even competed in the final game of the season, though Kim Mulkey is 3-0 in title games as a head coach, all at Baylor.
The Hawkeyes slayed the giants of college basketball to get to this point, and LSU had to play the highest possible opposing seed in four of five rounds, including a victory over top seed Virginia Tech in the Final Four. Both teams have shaken off regular-season concerns — Iowa’s defensive inconsistency and LSU’s weak schedule — to be playing their best basketball against the toughest competition when it matters most.
Here’s what to watch for from both sides when the Hawkeyes and the Tigers face each other at 3:30 p.m. (ET) Sunday.
How does LSU beat Iowa?
Make Caitlin Clark play defense
Alexis Morris was impressed with Clark as she watched the second half of Iowa’s defeat of South Carolina on Sunday, complimenting the Hawkeyes star’s shooting range and ability to hit contested shots. She offered an important note for the assembled media when she said, “Caitlin is going to have to play defense tomorrow.” The Tigers observed how Clark was able to serve as a roamer and not take on any individual defensive matchup against the Gamecocks, and LSU’s first item of business Sunday is making sure that doesn’t happen again.
Teams can challenge Clark on offense, but none of that seems to faze Clark. What LSU can control is how much she has to work on defense. Even with her free safety role against the Gamecocks, Clark (who played 38 minutes) still looked a bit tired at the end of the game. With a short turnaround, if the Tigers can apply pressure on Clark on both ends, they can use fatigue to their advantage. Clark is cognizant of never getting into foul trouble as well, which makes it easy to attack her when she’s essentially playing with her hands behind her back.
Limit Iowa center Monika Czinano
When Czinano arrived in Iowa City, coach Lisa Bluder recalls a distinctly different player from the one she is coaching. “Her shot was messed up when she came,” Bluder said Saturday. After five seasons, and countless hours spent working with Iowa associate head coach Jan Jensen on post footwork, positioning and shooting form, Czinano is one of the most efficient offensive players in the country. She’s finished in the top 10 nationally in field goal percentage in each of the past four seasons, having shot a career-best 68 percent this season.
The Hawkeyes as a team are second nationally in field goal percentage at the rim and third in field goal percentage in the paint, according to CBB Analytics. The Tigers, though, have had success when Angel Reese and LaDazhia Williams are on the floor together. “I think LaDazhia did a great job playing (Virginia Tech’s Elizabeth) Kitley last night and also playing Utah’s Alissa Pili. LaDazhia does a great job. Without LaDazhia, we can’t do the things we do,” Reese said. Reese is the quicker of the two Tigers bigs and expects to guard Czinano on Sunday for stretches, despite considering herself more of a power forward than center. It’ll be a team effort to slow Czinano down and limit Iowa’s effectiveness around the basket.
Alexis Morris replicates her semifinal performance
Morris starred in LSU’s semifinal win over Virginia Tech, scoring a game-high 27 points on 11-of-27 shooting. Afterward, Mulkey praised the Beaumont, Texas, native, highlighting Morris’ quickness on offense and her aggressiveness on defense. The fifth-year senior is one of the Tigers’ engines, able to find teammates in tight spaces (she was in the 97th percentile on average assists) and create her own shot (she was in the 95th percentile in points per game) — still having variance in her game. “She’s an X-factor,” LSU sophomore guard Kateri Poole said. “Sometimes it may click a little later.” Expect clarity early in the game about how much Morris is, or is not, able to disrupt Iowa.
How does Iowa beat LSU?
Find new defensive scheme for ‘South Carolina plus shooters’
The Hawkeyes packed the paint as much as possible in their Final Four matchup, daring South Carolina to shoot and staying disciplined even when the Gamecocks made a few 3-pointers, trusting the overall process. That game plan was successful to get to the national title game, but Bluder noted that LSU is essentially South Carolina plus better shooters. Even if the Tigers haven’t shot particularly well from 3-point range during the NCAA Tournament (19.7 percent over five games), the Hawkeyes at least seem to respect the threat of Poole and Morris from distance, more so than Raven Johnson or Kierra Fletcher. Iowa has rotated through a variety of defensive looks throughout the season, so defensive versatility isn’t exactly an issue, even if execution could be.
Close the gap in the rebounding battle
It was a minor miracle the Hawkeyes won a game when they were outrebounded 49-25. The Gamecocks had more offensive rebounds (26) than Iowa had total boards, and they outscored the Hawkeyes 24-8 on second-chance points. Nevertheless, it’s hard to expect Iowa to overcome that drastic of a differential for the second straight game, especially when LSU averages nearly as many second-chance points (18.3) as South Carolina (18.8).
Bluder noted Saturday that her least favorite play in basketball was the old-fashioned 3-point play, and the Hawkeyes surrendered several of those on putback opportunities in the national semifinal. Reese is as good of an offensive rebounder as there is in the country, scoring 7.9 second-chance points per game, reaching her average against Virginia Tech as the Tigers erased a double-digit second-half lead. Reese has the ability to get the Iowa bigs in foul trouble and simply demoralize the Hawkeyes when she generates extra possessions, so boxing her out and closing the rebounding margin will be of utmost importance.
Caitlin Clark has to be Caitlin Clark
This key isn’t exactly a surprise, but it also can’t be understated. If Iowa wants to win its first national championship in school history, Clark will need to play the way she has throughout the entirety of the season. Iowa is 12-2 in games this season in which Clark has scored 25 or fewer points, but the Hawkeyes have only made it to this stage because their star guard has put on two consecutive magical performances. After their win over the Hokies, Mulkey was able to watch some of Clark’s performance against South Carolina. “When I did get out there, I couldn’t take my eyes off of her. Gosh, she’s special,” Mulkey said. “I don’t know that I’ve ever seen a player that can do what Caitlin does.” The LSU coach acknowledged she expects Clark to “get her points,” and surely the Tigers will throw a number of defenders at her. Clark’s been the best player of the season and tournament and has visualized winning a championship since she arrived on campus. “I understand there’s only 40 more minutes left in my season, which is kind of sad because it’s been so much fun,” Clark said. “But why not go cut down another net?”
(Photo of Monika Czinano: Justin Tafoya / NCAA Photos via Getty Images)
